Southern Tennessee Weather

Accurate, local weather without the mainstream hype! Proudly serving Bedford, Coffee, Franklin, Grundy, Marshall, Maury, and Moore Counties in Southern TN!

[Southern Tennessee Weather @STNWeather]

🌧️ FINALLY, A LITTLE DROUGHT RELIEF!

The latest Drought Monitor shows improvement across Southern Middle Tennessee!

🥶 PLUS: Our first HARD FREEZE, possible snow flurries, and the forecast ahead.

📱 Thursday’s FULL blog: https://t.co/3rGFR8r3KA

Heritage South CCU | #tnwx

[Southern Tennessee Weather @STNWeather]

THE COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED, AND NOW THE REAL COOLDOWN BEGINS! 🥶❄️ We're now in somewhat of a weird "transition zone" across Southern Middle Tennessee as cooler air slowly begins filtering into the region. We've still got a few minor weather changes to get through over the next 24–36 hours before our coldest temperatures of the fall season arrive this weekend!

Today will feature a mix of sun and clouds, with afternoon highs approaching the upper 50s. After lunchtime, we could see a few scattered light showers and areas of drizzle develop as the upper-level trough associated with our departing cold front swings through the region. However, widespread rainfall is NOT anticipated, and many communities may not see much of anything. A few light showers or patches of drizzle could linger into Thursday evening before coming to an end around midnight. By Friday morning, temperatures will have fallen into the upper 20s and lower 30s across Southern Middle Tennessee, making for a rather chilly start to the day!

We'll see another mix of sun and clouds throughout much of Friday, although there's one little wrinkle in the forecast that I'm keeping an eye on. The latest HRRR short-range forecast model is trying to bring an additional piece of weak atmospheric energy across our region Friday evening. If this materializes, we could see a few scattered light showers develop across our eastern communities, with some of that precipitation potentially falling as LIGHT SNOW across the higher elevations of the Cumberland Plateau, generally above 1,500 feet. The best chance for a few flakes would be in Grundy County and around Sewanee in Franklin County. Now, before anyone gets too excited, we're NOT expecting any snow accumulations or travel impacts, and there's still some uncertainty as to whether we'll see any precipitation at all. Believe it or not, around this same time last year, we were dealing with our first light snow event along the Cumberland Plateau! So, while it may seem a little early to be talking about snowflakes, it's really not all that unusual for the higher elevations to see a few flakes flying this time of year.

Once we get past that small chance for precipitation Friday evening, skies will begin clearing out, setting the stage for our coldest temperatures so far this fall. Overnight lows are expected to drop into the MID TO UPPER 20s Friday night, Saturday night, and potentially Sunday night as well! We're talking about our first widespread HARD FREEZE of the season, accompanied by a heavy, killing frost that will likely put an end to the growing season across much of Southern Middle Tennessee. If you've got outdoor plans after sunset or around sunrise Saturday and Sunday, you'll definitely want to break out the winter coat!
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[Southern Tennessee Weather @STNWeather]

Heavy showers, with a few thunderstorms mixed in, continue across our southern counties, including Franklin, eastern Lincoln, and southern Moore. Elsewhere across Southern Middle Tennessee, dry weather has prevailed. The heaviest storm right now is over Sewanee and Monteagle, with another heavy cell moving into Huntland and Belvidere.

All rain and storms should be OUT of Southern Middle Tennessee by 11 PM as our cold front pushes east of the region! Have a BLESSED Wednesday night!

[Southern Tennessee Weather @STNWeather]

A few heavy showers are pushing through Southern Marshall, Lincoln, and Moore County as we approach 9:00 PM... This activity is moving quickly towards the east and will enter Franklin County soon.

Brief heavy rainfall, maybe an isolated rumble of thunder, and some small hail up to the size of peas cannot be ruled out.

[Southern Tennessee Weather @STNWeather]

GOOD NEWS! The Storm Prediction Center has REMOVED our low-end severe weather risk for this evening across Southern Middle Tennessee! This doesn't come as much of a surprise, considering we've been emphasizing just how LOW this threat was expected to be, with many communities likely seeing little to no activity.

A few scattered showers and thunderstorms will still be possible through around 11 PM tonight as a cold front moves through the region. However, the threat of severe weather is now MINIMAL.

[Southern Tennessee Weather @STNWeather]

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[Southern Tennessee Weather @STNWeather]

🥶 FROST, FREEZE, OR HARD FREEZE?

❄️ How can frost form at 35°?
🌡️ Why is 28° so important?
🥶 Why can nearby towns have VERY different temperatures?
With a HARD FREEZE expected this weekend, Wednesday's blog explains it all!
📱 https://t.co/YqkFEh66uy

Heritage South CCU | #tnwx

[Southern Tennessee Weather @STNWeather]

🇺🇸 HAPPY VETERANS DAY! Before we get into this morning's forecast discussion, I want to take a moment to say THANK YOU to all who have served and those who are currently serving in our armed forces. Your service, sacrifice, and dedication to protecting the freedoms we enjoy each and every day do not go unnoticed and will never be forgotten. Thank you for all that you do!

Now, let's talk about the weather because we've got a few changes on the way across Southern Middle Tennessee, including a chance for storms later this evening and our first ARCTIC BLAST of the season heading into the weekend! 🥶

First, a strong cold front will push through our region later this evening, bringing the opportunity for scattered showers and thunderstorms. The timing has slowed down just a tad compared to yesterday's forecast, with the main window for showers and storms now looking to be between 7 PM and 11 PM. Not everyone will necessarily see rain tonight, but a few showers and storms will certainly be around as the front moves through.

The Storm Prediction Center continues to highlight a low-end MARGINAL risk (Level 1 out of 5) for severe thunderstorms across Maury and Marshall Counties. While the overall severe weather threat remains VERY LOW, a few storms could produce strong wind gusts and hail up to the size of quarters. The tornado threat remains very low here locally, and I'm not particularly concerned about flooding either, given how quickly these storms are expected to move through. Rainfall totals will only be in the 0.05 to 0.25 inch range. As I've mentioned before, the better opportunity for stronger thunderstorms looks to remain north and west of Southern Middle Tennessee. This is certainly not a situation where I'm sounding the alarms, but it is something worth keeping an eye on later this evening!

Now, let's talk about the BIG story heading into the weekend... OUR FIRST ARCTIC BLAST OF THE SEASON! Behind tonight's cold front, a much colder air mass will begin settling into Southern Middle Tennessee. Thursday will actually be fairly manageable, with afternoon highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s, and even Friday shouldn't feel too terribly bad during the afternoon. However, once we get into Friday night and Saturday morning, things are going to get COLD!

We're looking at overnight lows dropping into the MID 20s across much of Southern Middle Tennessee Saturday morning, with another round of temperatures in the mid 20s expected Sunday morning. This will likely be our first widespread HARD FREEZE of the 2026–27 season, and temperatures this cold can cause problems for exposed outdoor plumbing. Now is a good time to disconnect garden hoses, protect exposed pipes, and make sure anything sensitive to freezing temperatures is taken care of BEFORE the cold arrives.

We'll continue keeping a close eye on this evening's storm potential, but once that cold front moves through, our attention quickly turns to some of the coldest temperatures we've seen since last winter. Get those jackets ready! 🥶
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[Southern Tennessee Weather @STNWeather]

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[Southern Tennessee Weather @STNWeather]

LET'S TALK ABOUT OUR CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING! ⛈️ A strong cold front will push through Southern Middle Tennessee Wednesday evening, and ahead of it, a few scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop.

Now, I don't expect everyone to see rain tomorrow, but a few showers and storms will definitely be around, especially between 3 PM and 9 PM. That doesn't mean it's going to rain that entire time, either! Some communities may see a passing shower or thunderstorm, while others may stay completely dry.

One thing that HAS changed slightly is that the Storm Prediction Center has introduced a MARGINAL risk (Level 1 out of 5) for severe thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening across our northwestern areas, including Maury and Marshall Counties.

The main concerns with any stronger thunderstorms would be gusty winds and small hail. An isolated tornado also cannot be completely ruled out, although that threat remains VERY low. Rainfall totals between 0.05 and .25 inches are likely. I still believe the better opportunity for severe weather, albeit a relatively low threat overall, will remain north and west of our coverage area.

So, this is just something I want to "put on your radar" for tomorrow! I'm certainly NOT sounding the alarms for a significant severe weather event, and I don't see anything in the forecast data right now that would warrant that level of concern. However, with a strong cold front moving through, it's worth keeping an eye on how things develop.

As always, we'll continue monitoring the latest data and keep you updated as we get closer to Wednesday afternoon!
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[Southern Tennessee Weather @STNWeather]

THERE'S A LOT TO TALK ABOUT WEATHER-WISE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, SO BUCKLE UP! 🥶❄️ We've got a strong cold front, a few rain chances, our first HARD FREEZE of the season, some possible mountain snow, and even an interesting weather pattern developing as we approach Thanksgiving week!

First, a strong cold front is still expected to push through Southern Middle Tennessee Wednesday night into Thursday morning, bringing the chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms Wednesday evening. You may be seeing some "buzz" on social media about the potential for stronger storms, but let me go ahead and shut that bee up quickly! 🐝 I'm not seeing any convincing evidence in the forecast data pointing toward a severe weather threat here locally. The better chance for stronger storms looks to remain north and west of our area, closer to the center of low pressure. As for rainfall, most locations that see rain could pick up around 0.10–0.25 inches, although some communities may receive little to nothing. That's quite a contrast from what I was discussing this past weekend, when a more substantial rain event was looking increasingly possible. Unfortunately, forecast guidance has been gradually backing off those higher rainfall chances. Not exactly what we wanted to see, considering how much we could use the rain!

Once that cold front pushes through, though, temperatures are going to DROP LIKE A ROCK! 🥶 Afternoon highs will only reach the 50s Thursday before falling into the mid to upper 40s Friday. We'll begin a slow warming trend over the weekend and into next week, but highs will still generally remain in the 50s Saturday and Sunday. The bigger story will be our overnight temperatures, with our first widespread HARD FREEZE of the 2026–27 winter season looking increasingly likely! Lows are expected to tumble into the mid 20s Friday night into Saturday morning and again Saturday night into Sunday morning, bringing widespread freezing temperatures and likely ending the growing season across much of Southern Middle Tennessee. Now's the time to start thinking about the THREE Ps: PEOPLE, PIPES, AND PETS! Make sure you're prepared for several nights of below-freezing temperatures, especially if you've got exposed plumbing or outdoor pets.

And with all that cold Arctic air spilling into the region, I know what some of you are wondering... WHAT ABOUT SNOW? ❄️ Well, I'm still keeping an eye on the possibility of a few scattered snow flurries Friday, particularly along the Cumberland Plateau in Grundy and Franklin Counties. Higher elevations above roughly 1,500 feet will have the best chance of seeing a few flakes flying, but if you live off the Plateau, I wouldn't get too excited about the flakeage! However, farther east in the Smoky Mountains, things could get a little more interesting! Some of our latest global forecast models are suggesting the higher elevations could pick up their first accumulating snow of the fall, with projections showing anywhere from 1–4 inches in portions of the mountains. Elevation will be EVERYTHING with this setup, though, so for my Gatlinburg and "Baptist Vegas" (Pigeon Forge) folks, don't get your hopes up for a winter wonderland just yet! Most of that accumulating snow potential looks to remain well above town, and those mountain snowfall projections could still change.

Finally, looking a little farther down the road, there's another interesting development worth discussing! The latest Climate Prediction Center 8–14 Day Outlook, released Sunday, is hinting at a potentially more active weather pattern developing across much of the country as we approach Thanksgiving week. The November 17–23 outlook favors above-average precipitation across Southern Middle Tennessee, with the greatest probabilities centered over the middle of the country. Now, that doesn't guarantee a soaking rain, but it DOES suggest the overall pattern may become more favorable for passing storm systems. We could eventually be talking about a decent rainmaker or two if everything comes together, which would certainly be welcome news! We're still too far out to discuss individual systems or specific rainfall totals, though...

Needless to say, there's PLENTY to keep an eye on over the coming days and weeks! From Wednesday's rain chances to our first hard freeze, a little mountain flakeage, and the possibility of a more active pattern heading toward Thanksgiving, I'll continue watching the latest forecast data and keeping you updated as things evolve!
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[Southern Tennessee Weather @STNWeather]

CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY! Proudly sponsored by Adams Roofing! (https://t.co/CczFtIOezc)

[Southern Tennessee Weather @STNWeather]

🥶 HOW DOES ARCTIC AIR REACH TENNESSEE?
❄️ Where does it come from?
🌬️ How does the jet stream bring it south?
🌀 Is the POLAR VORTEX responsible?

With a HARD FREEZE possible this weekend, Monday's blog explains the science!
📱 https://t.co/L8XMPa2tZb

Heritage South CCU | #tnwx

[Southern Tennessee Weather @STNWeather]

RAIN CHANCES RETURN WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A BIG-TIME COOLDOWN! 🥶❄️ Rain chances return to Southern Middle Tennessee Wednesday evening and will continue off and on into early Thursday ahead of a strong cold front. Right now, rainfall totals of 0.10–0.25 inches look likely across the region. Certainly not a soaking rain, but hey, we'll take what we can get!

The BIG story arrives behind the cold front Thursday night as some of the coldest air we've seen so far this season moves into Southern Middle Tennessee! We're looking at our first HARD FREEZE of the 2026–27 winter season, with overnight lows dropping into the mid 20s by Friday night into Saturday morning (and again Saturday night into Sunday morning). Afternoon temperatures will struggle as well, with highs on Friday and Sunday only reaching the mid to upper 40s...

And yes, I'm STILL watching the possibility of a few scattered snow flurries on Friday... ❄️ The best chance will be along the Cumberland Plateau, where colder temperatures and higher elevations will favor a few passing flurries. Chances decrease pretty substantially as you move off the Plateau and farther west. I'm not expecting any accumulation or travel impacts, but a few folks may get to see some flakes flying!
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[Southern Tennessee Weather @STNWeather]

@PettusWX You’re going to be very upset if you go to Gatlinburg expecting lots of snow from a NW flow event like this… People seem to forget Gatlinburg is lower in elevation than Crossville and only 200 ft higher than Tullahoma.

[Southern Tennessee Weather @STNWeather]

🦴 ACHES & PAINS FORECAST | NOVEMBER 9TH – 15TH
Presented by Lamb Counseling Services

BIG-TIME WEATHER CHANGES ARE COMING THIS WEEK! Unfortunately, that means our aches and pains forecast is going to take a pretty significant turn for the worse as we head toward the end of the workweek!

We'll start Monday and Tuesday on a relatively quiet note, with very few significant weather changes expected. That should keep us comfortably in the GREEN or "LOW PAIN" category. However, things begin changing Wednesday as our next storm system approaches Southern Middle Tennessee. By Thursday and Friday, a STRONG cold front and upper-level low-pressure system will move through the region, bringing some of our most significant weather changes in quite some time!

Two of the biggest factors we're watching are falling barometric pressure and rapid temperature changes. Some people with arthritis, joint stiffness, chronic pain, and migraines report increased discomfort when atmospheric pressure drops or temperatures change quickly. These changes may contribute to inflammation-related discomfort or trigger headaches in weather-sensitive individuals.

Because of this, I've increased our forecast into the RED or "HIGH PAIN" category for Thursday and Friday. This is when we're expecting the most significant weather changes of the week, so those sensitive to changing weather may notice more pronounced flare-ups.

THANKFULLY, THERE'S GOOD NEWS! As the storm system moves eastward and our weather begins settling down this weekend, pain levels should gradually decrease. We'll return to the YELLOW or "MODERATE PAIN" category Saturday before dropping back into the GREEN category Sunday as weather changes become less significant.

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[Southern Tennessee Weather @STNWeather]

SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE 7-DAY FORECAST: A chilly start to the week is on tap, but we've got some BIG changes coming later this week, including a chance for rain, a few snow flurries, and potentially our first HARD FREEZE of the season!

First, we're looking at another cold start Monday morning, with widespread heavy frost and a light freeze likely across Southern Middle Tennessee. Thankfully, we'll warm up rather nicely during the afternoon, with highs approaching 70 degrees Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday! With light winds and mostly clear skies, patchy fog will also be possible each morning. Another round of light frost can't be ruled out Monday night into Tuesday morning, particularly in our sheltered, lower-lying areas.

Heading into the middle of the week, things start getting a little more interesting! Our strongest cold front of the season (so far) is expected to approach Southern Middle Tennessee, bringing an opportunity for rain showers Wednesday night into Thursday. While we're still working out the finer details regarding rainfall coverage and timing, this front looks to bring a MUCH colder air mass into our region heading into the weekend.

And when I say colder, I mean COLDER! 🥶 By Friday afternoon, temperatures may struggle to even reach 50 degrees across much of Southern Middle Tennessee! In fact, there could even be a few passing SNOW FLURRIES across our eastern counties, especially along the Cumberland Plateau. Now, before anyone gets too excited, I'm NOT expecting any snow accumulation at this time. However, it's certainly something worth keeping an eye on as we get closer!

The bigger story will be Friday night into Saturday morning, when we're expecting our first HARD FREEZE of the season! Temperatures could fall into the mid to upper 20s across portions of the area, which would likely bring an official end to the growing season. If you've still got sensitive outdoor plants hanging around, now would be a good time to start making preparations!

By Sunday, we should begin a slow warming trend that continues into early next week, although temperatures will likely remain on the chilly side initially. Be sure to stay tuned for updates as we fine-tune the timing of Wednesday night's and Thursday's rain chances, along with just HOW COLD we're going to get behind this front. One thing is looking increasingly likely... You're going to want to BUNDLE UP later this week! 🥶
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[Southern Tennessee Weather @STNWeather]

It's quite chilly across the area this morning! Here's a look at observed low temperatures. The coldest two locations were Shelbyville and Tullahoma, getting down to 30°! 🥶