胜哥

生命不止，奋斗不息

[AB Kuai.Dong @_FORAB]

说真的，这应该是我这辈子，第一次看到这么多传统机构，集体抱团投一家公链。

木头姐的方舟基金、纽交所母公司 ICE、贝莱德、渣打银行、日本 SBI、a16z，集体投了计划发币的 Circle 公链，那家稳定币 USDC 的母公司。

[Killa @KillaXBT]

My Super Cycle Prediction.

1972 Gold vs $BTC.

Precious metals enter a multi-year bear market. Gold and silver top out and trend lower into what could become a 5-7-year decline.

Then... capital flows into the only major asset that hasn't been inflated.

[Armani Ferrante @armaniferrante]

On FUD.

FUD is an opportunity to either address misunderstandings or to identify mistakes and simply fix them. With every TGE, emotions run hot, as people focus on a single number, the token price, determining one’s feelings. It’s human nature, and because Backpack has such a large community around the world, spanning from advanced traders in Asia, to wallet users on every network, Mad Lad holders around the world, and everyone in between, the TGE is a time where people vocalize their views.

I would like to address several different topics I’ve seen floating around over the past few days to set the record straight and offer my perspective.

- OTC. I can’t believe I have to say this, no, we aren’t OTCing our own tokens to cash out. See the tokenomics. Fake news. End of story. What is true: buyers reached out to me and asked for OTC. I am happy to help buyers find more tokens. Unfortunately, due to the bad history of other crypto projects using OTC to cash out, folks assumed the worst when they saw me post about OTC in discord.

- Mad Lads. All existing Mad Lad holders pre-TGE retain their Backpack VIP status. New holders do not. Some like this, some hate this. I understand both perspectives. My perspective is that Mad Lads has always been an evolution alongside Backpack. We went from the whitelist games inside Backpack => pre-reveal inside Backpack => reveal boss inside Backpack => xNFT inside Backpack => airdrops inside Backpack => VIP points inside Backpack => the BP token. Each one of these stages created a clear path for Mad Lads to get to the next stage, always focusing on long term holders over people that come and go. There are people that follow the path, and people that do not. There are people that evolve with us and people that do not. Our approach from the day Mad Lads was born has always been to focus people on the Backpack product. Naturally, new people came into Mad Lads with their own pre-conceived notion of what it was or what it should be. This creates tension. But we have always had a strong vision and we will always stick to it. The people that use the product always get to the next stage, where every stage answers a single question: how do we push Backpack forward. When designing token utility, it’s a question of economics, and it would be a disservice to BP to not align incentives around it. There’s an additional nuance worth pointing out: Backpack is different from basically every other product that dropped a mined token because we KYC users and are selective about the regions we open up. Those users have been out of the game, so to speak, not because I want to do that–nothing upsets me more than not being able to serve users in a particular region (what founder would want that?)--but it’s because we have chosen the path of building a crypto native financial institution. That path is long and hard. For these users, we have maintained the path to get to the next stage and have communicated that. When we open up regions, these regions will get their drops, and we will be running new campaigns to get more drops just by using the product, and that brings everyone up to speed with the same VIP benefits of the original pre-TGE seasons. For the long term holders, nothing has changed. The key issue is with respect to new NFT holders. Some people will hate this. Some will think it’s sound economics. I understand both perspectives. We are doing what we think is best.

- Sybills. Our goal was to protect retail users competing for points against sophisticated players splitting accounts and giving themselves an unfair advantage over those that don’t. The mistake we made: our process was too black and white. From the team’s point of view, we had a line and we stuck to it. From the community’s point of view, the line is nuanced. We did not sufficiently take that into consideration.

- Price/FDV. With every token comes the human nature to think about the price at all times. There are good ways to think about price and there are clearly illegal ways to think about price. Our position is simple, we are building over a long period of time, and we are not making short term decisions. 24h post-TGE FDV is not a meaningful metric. Even 1 week post-TGE FDV is not a meaningful metric. If you ask anyone that’s ever built anything, they’ll tell you the same. Many people will take issue with that statement, and that’s ok. Ultimately, you have to look at our incentives and decide for yourself. The fact of the matter is that the team and I are incentivized to make Backpack a success with arguably the most extreme tokenomics ever created. What happens if the token goes to zero and stays there? Our company fails, and we get nothing. Some people might rebut saying that we get rich from the company revenue. No. That is simply not how companies work. We don’t get rich from a bad token price. We are punished in the most extreme possible way. And we are rewarded in the most extreme way only if we achieve all of our hopes and dreams. The way it should be. This is by design. Beyond this post you won’t see me talk about price or FDV. You will see me talking about building and creating long term value. And it’s only by doing that, can BP become a success.

Every project goes through trials and tribulations. This is certainly a moment for us. We are nothing without our community, and we will serve it in the best way we know how. I have complete conviction, I am all in, and the team is all in. Don’t trust us, look at the tokenomics to decide for yourself.

Thank you for reading this. Thank you especially to those that have supported us this week. It means a lot. We will continue to review the above, particularly the cases around sybils, and get back to building.

[胜哥 @Sahara_ant]

@aixbt_agent Hey
@aixbt_agent

Evaluate ARB, OP, and ZK. Are they worth buying? Price predictions for the next one, two, and three years.

[胜哥 @Sahara_ant]

@phyrexni 有没有可能今天的下跌是与日本国债有关。

[AB Kuai.Dong @_FORAB]

刚发现币安是可以法币提现的？不过需要先将美元稳定币 USDT、USDC 兑换成美元，然后再发起银行转账 SWIFT 提现。

打款行是名为 BPay，位于巴林的币安实体。
需要 3 个工作日左右。

比较大的问题是，币安平台上的美元稳定币与美元不是 1：1，然后有 6600 美金限额，超出需额外提交身份证件。

[胜哥 @Sahara_ant]

@Grayscale $ARB

[胜哥 @Sahara_ant]

@jinglejamOP @Optimism @arbitrum

[Shay Boloor @StockSavvyShay]

TOP GROWTH THEMES TO WATCH IN 2026

• Crypto | $HOOD, $COIN, $BMNR
• Quantum | $IONQ, $RGTI, $QBTS
• Robotics | $TSLA, $SYM, $ISRG, $RR
• Nuclear | $OKLO, $LEU, $GEV, $UUUU
• AI Utility | $CRWV, $NBIS, $IREN, $CIFR
• AI Chips | $NVDA, $TSM, $ASML, $AMD
• Grid & Power | $CEG, $NEE, $VST, $EOSE
• Drones | $ONDS, $UMAC, $DPRO, $AVAV
• AI Data Platforms | $PLTR, $SNOW, $MDB
• AI Security | $CRWD, $ZS, $PANW, $RBRK
• Space Economy | $RKLB, $ASTS, $PL, $RDW
• AI Networking | $AVGO, $ALAB, $MRVL, $CRDO
• AI Cloud | $MSFT, $AMZN, $GOOGL, $DOCN, $ORCL

[Privacy Pools @0xprivacypools]

want to fund a fresh wallet on @arbitrum without revealing your entire onchain history?

here's how to deposit ETH, USDC, or @NeriteOrg's yUSND to privacy pools and withdraw privately to a fresh address ↓

[刘红林律师 @Honglin_lawyer]

曼昆律师 | 面向大陆居民推广U卡，有什么法律风险？
在虚拟货币活动中，如何安全“出金”是经久不衰的话题。U卡似乎提供了一种无需出金即可消费的便捷方式（也可以认为，用U卡就是最安全的出金），因此深受币圈人士的欢迎。

很多人因此做起了U卡的推广的生意，笔者常在社群、平台看到开卡优惠的广告，也经常在大陆视频平台看到借助普及u卡知识，实则让你添加私信购买开卡服务的内容。这些推广者只是收取发卡方佣金还是赚取开卡人服务费，不得而知。

但曼昆律师希望通过本文，提示一下U卡推广的风险，特别是面对大陆用户推广U卡的法律风险。

���么是U卡？

U卡即USDT银行卡，其核心逻辑是利用USDT这种稳定币的价格稳定性（USDT的价值通常与美元挂钩），为用户提供一种稳定且方便的支付手段。具体场景为，比如在咖啡店点一杯咖啡，我们的微信支付中绑定银行卡，既可以完成消费，如果你持有U卡，该卡绑定支付软件，往卡内充值USDT，就可以在线下各种实体场景中消费。

因为USDT这种稳定币不同于BTC或ETH等加密货币——币值波动性大——这使得它在日常支付中更具可行性。特别是，当下各地稳定币法案相继通过，以后或许会有更多的稳定币银行卡出现,U卡就是稳定币银行卡的一种。

当下面向中国大陆用户推广U卡，有政策性风险

目前，我们发现部分U卡推广者，并没有接受项目方指派（即没有项目方为推广活动买单、结佣的），仅是个人为了赚取开卡服务费，承接了大陆居民的开卡需求，甚至是批量的开卡需求。如此涉及的风险更是多方面的：

首先，根据大陆以往的人民银行等单位公告、通知（如“924公告”），以及目前大陆内的司法判决，可见大陆已经明确表达了对加密货币与法币的兑换是持否定态度，使用U卡进行虚拟货币买卖的流程非常容易触碰我国外汇管理制度的“红线”，一旦办案机关认定推广者主观上对外汇买卖是知情、纵容、变相支持的，推广者可能会构成“非法经营罪”的帮助犯。所以面向在中国大陆境内居民推广U卡，不得以法币兑换为噱头。

其次，作为U卡推广商，也应注重对发卡机构的审查。这就好比kol带单，需要审查项目方项目的合法性。

目前 U卡发行方大抵包括以下4种：

1.银行直接发行。银行自己愿意接受稳定币，利用自己的支付网络和合规��架，为用户提供稳定的加密货币支付解决方案。

2.银行与加密货币公司合作发行。此时由银行提供传统的金融基础设施，第三方公司则负责加密货币的管理和转换。

3.专业加密支付公司独立发行。一些专注于加密货币支付的公司，通过与 Visa 或 MasterCard 等支付网络合作，独立发行 U卡。

4.SaaS 模式合作发行。这是指一些第三方支付公司通过 SaaS（软件即服务）模式，为渠道商或其他金融服务提供商提供 U卡发行平台。

那么作为推广者，选择知名的U卡提供商就非常重要，才能得以确保资金安全。推广者应避免推广小众甚至无牌照的服务商，这些公司即便不是资金盘，但是因为自身无法提供足够的资金保障和交易安全措施，导致财产损失，作为面向大陆用户的推广者，极有可以被以诈骗立案。

最后，但更为重要的是，U卡推广者不能认为“只要自己没有直接使用U卡，仅仅推广、代办卡，就不构成犯罪”。

从轻的层面讲，一方面，部分U卡发行方没有打算对大陆居民展业，推广者收集中国大陆用户信息，辅助以其他签证材料帮忙开卡，可能违反境外司法辖区的冒领信用凭证的风险。另一方面，U卡推广者既然开始收集大陆居民信息开卡，不可避免的需要承担个人信息保护的问题，个人信息泄露达到一定数量可能被认定为犯罪。

从重的层面来看，U卡推广者代为开卡，是将发卡方的审查义务自行揽了过来。比如：开卡人提供虚假身份信息用以开卡，U卡推广者协助完成开卡，一旦发生洗钱活动，依据大陆办案习惯，会推定协助开卡人员明知犯罪意图。又比如，某大陆居民需要一次性开多张卡，显然存在突破外汇限额或者其他非正常使用意图，U卡推广者协助完成开卡，也会牵涉到关联犯罪中。

小结

U卡等稳定币银行卡，作为一种便捷的加密货币支付方式，相信会成为未来的一种生活方式。但在当下，作为推广者，在推广时需谨慎选择发行商，并了解相关的法律和合规要求是基础要求。

目前，曼昆律师非常不建议面向中国大陆用户推广U卡，存在政策性风险。即便未来，大陆范围内的加密货币法律和监管框架更为轻松、灵活，稳定币银行卡推广者也不应参与到协助开卡环节，避免将发卡方应当负有的审查责任，承揽到自己身上。

[CAPT. PARA8OLIC TOBLERONE @CaptToblerone]

$BTC at 107k, $TOTAL at 3.5T, $OTHERS at 400B, $OTHERS.D at 11.5% and $BTC.D at 61.2% by mid February 2026.
#Minialtseason .

[Mike Alfred @mikealfred]

We are still below the inflation adjusted all time high of $69,420 from 2021. There has been no bull market whatsoever. We have been in a deep bear market for 4 years and we are about to rocket out of it to definitive new highs above $140,000. $315,000 within 12 months. Mark it.

[墨染🎒 @moranweb3]

🧐 @base 终于要发币了？散户还有机会吗？

最近看到 1confirmation 创始人预测：
Base 如果发币，市值可能进前五。

这让我想起了当年的 $ARB

昨天仔细复盘了一下我在 ARB 上的操作记录：

入场很晚（发币前2个月），交互极少（<25笔），但单号拿了 2400 刀空投。

这说明什么？

时间不够，资金来凑。

对于现在的 Base，死磕交互次数已经没用了，得换个思路。

1⃣核心逻辑: 弯道超车

当年我做 ARB 的时候，身边的工作室已经卷了一年了。

我如果去跟他们拼 Tx 数量、拼月活，肯定输。

所以��当时的策略是：“大资金 + 龙一项目”。

直接存了 1 万多刀进 GMX（当时的 ARB 龙一），拿着 GMX 的代币涨幅 + 空投权重。

���理，现在想在 Base 上弯道超车，逻辑是一样的：

找到 Base 链上独有的、且能承载大资金的龙头项目。

2⃣项目筛选: 谁是 Base 的 GMX？

打开 DefiLlama 扫了一圈。

Uniswap 虽然 TVL 第一，但它是全链项目，pass。

我们要找的是 Base Native ，原生的龙头。

Aerodrome $AERO ：

Base 上的流动性枢纽，地位相当于 ARB 上的 GMX。

策略：提供 LP 或者质押 VeAERO。

不仅是交互，也是捕捉 Beta 收益。

Kleros $PNK ：

虽然热度不如以前，但在 Base 生态里依然占有一席之地。

3⃣关于 SocialFi 和 Meme 的思考

除了 DeFi，还有两个赛道不能忽视：

Farcaster：融资 1.5 亿的社交龙头。

虽然拖了很久没发币，但它是 Base 上为数不多的高频应用。

策略：正常使用，保持活跃，把它当朋友��发。

Virtuals $VIRTUAL ：AI x Meme 的龙头。

如果 Base 发币预期升温，热钱进来肯定先炒这种有叙事的。

总结一下我的 Base 策略： 资金为王，重仓龙头。

不要再去刷那些几百个号的低保了，那个时代过去了。

[AB Kuai.Dong @_FORAB]

时隔一个月，传奇交易员鸽子 Eugene 发表了行情观点，他认为现在是时候，可以开始规划观察名单和买入目标了，因为大多数山寨币，已经进入最底部阶段。

但主流币，仍然处于最绝望前的那一阶段，因为很多 DAT 微策略公司，去杠杆或解散事件，还没有真正发生。

所以他当前以准备买入的心态，在观察。

补充：DAT 是以囤积加密货币为目标的主体，多数公司在美股上市。

关于鸽子所说的阶段：

第三阶段 - 乐观：主流媒体关���度最高、主流币横盘，个别小币涨得离谱、最后一批接盘侠入场、市场极度自满，稍有看空观点就会被骂。

第四阶段 - 恐慌前：大规���清算，确认趋势反转、所有好消息立刻变成利空、爆仓暴雷事件频出、一个支撑破了又一个、多头被反复惩罚。

第五阶段 - 最底部：多头仍然会被惩罚、价格整体横着走，不上也不下、成交量和波动率都很低。

目前他认为多数山寨处于第五阶段，主流币处于第四，转折点就是多数微策略公司们，会不会出事。

[胜哥 @Sahara_ant]

@katiabanina @jinglejamOP

[Zama @zama]

Coming Soon: The $ZAMA Token.

$ZAMA is the native token of the Zama Confidential Blockchain Protocol.

It will be used for protocol fees and staking. It follows a burn-and-mint model, where 100% of the fees are burned and tokens are minted to reward operators.

■ Users pay fees to keep transactions confidential (fees are burned)
■ Network operators get rewarded with new $ZAMA tokens

What Do Users Pay For?

■ Encrypting transaction data: $0.005-$0.50
■ Reading confidential balances: $0.001-$0.10
■ Moving confidential assets between chains: $0.01-$1

Heavy users may get big discounts (up to 100x cheaper). Prices stay stable in USD even if the token price changes, creating predictability for developers who use Zama in their products.

Real Example: Confidential Token Transfer.

■ Send tokens without revealing amounts or balances
■ Cost: $0.008-$0.80 depending on your usage level
■ Power users pay pennies; casual users pay under $1

How Operators Get Paid.

The Zama Protocol uses Delegated Proof-of-Stake, with 18 operators running the protocol: initially 13 KMS nodes and 5 FHE Coprocessors (and more over time).

■ Coprocessors: bigger rewards, higher costs
■ KMS nodes: smaller rewards, lower costs

Token holders can delegate their stake to these operators to help secure the network.

Zama’s tokenomics are designed to be self-sufficient.

If 10% of future crypto transactions are encrypted, it could result in $1B+ in yearly fees.

Read more in the Litepaper: https://t.co/jSnYUifqnH

[胜哥 @Sahara_ant]

@elonmuskTN 88

[胜哥 @Sahara_ant]

@elonmuskTN 37

[CM @chenmo]

Vitalik再次转发了Brevis，它展示了zklighthouse客户端如何验证来自Brevis Pico ZKVM和ZiskVM的3个最快的零知识证明，被称之为“Gigagas ETH”时代，接近实时的有效性证明，将大幅提升以太坊的扩展性。

Brevis通过zk证明系统，把大量的计算工作拿到链下，把少量的结果拿到链上执行。目前能走出2条路线

1是可验证的链下计算，解决链上昂贵的成本无法处理复杂计算的问题。

2是Pico Prism对以太坊实现实时有效性证明，让节点仅通过验证这个小证明，就能确定该区块里的所有交易与执行都正确，而不必所有节点都重复计算一次，变相解决了以太坊可扩展性难题。

可验证计算方面，也有很多经典案例，比如为dex设计一种根据用户历史交易量计算的梯度手续费、根据TVL增长曲线来动态设计激励分配等，这些场景非常实用但涉及大量计算，��在链上计算其成本高到几乎是不可能的，直接放在链下又无法解决信任问题，zk证明是最好的一个选择，而ProverNet的概念则是一套“ZK 证明算力”市场，把全世界会算 ZK 的机器（Prover）组织成一个市场，让需要证明的项目来这里下单、竞价拍卖、拿结果。

未来这个市场会搬到一条链上，Brevis Chain，一个专用 rollup，Prover注册、项目方提交任务和付费、通过智能合约进行竞拍、还有相应的罚没机制。其原生代币作为gas使用，同时Prover需要质押BREV代币才能“接单”。所以Brevis的设计是，既有一条很强的自有生产线Pico Prism，也有一个撮合所有生产线和需求方的市场Brevis Chain。

这些是近期 @brevis_zk 刚发布的白皮书内容，其ProverNet计划应该很快就要正式启动了。