I swear there’s something atmospheric that causes certain regions of the globe to be high-fidelity. California, Central America, Southeast Asia - all feel unusually “sharp” visually in my experience, even indoors.
It looks like Mexico
1) Started classifying homicide as disappearances or involuntary manslaughter; and
2) Is so overwhelmed by the number of disappearances that they’re discouraging reporting
Yeah, this is not an alternative to Bukele at all.
China’s capital allocation system is colossally wasteful at the micro level, but devastatingly effective at the macro level.
It routinely overbuilds, duplicates capacity, funds weak firms, and tolerates enormous inefficiency by Western profitability and shareholder-return standards. Entire sectors can endure years of losses, redundant investment, and brutal overcompetition.
But that “waste” functions as a national-scale incubation system.
It compresses learning curves, drives down costs through overcapacity and competition, builds complete supply chains at extraordinary speed, and ensures that multiple firms survive long enough for a few globally dominant champions to emerge.
The West optimizes for efficient capital allocation and near-term returns.
China optimizes for ecosystem dominance, industrial depth, employment stability, technological catch-up, and long-term strategic positioning.
The result is that what looks irrational at the firm level can become highly rational at the system level. EVs, batteries, solar, drones, shipbuilding, telecom equipment, and increasingly AI infrastructure all reflect this pattern.
Colossally wasteful. Devastatingly effective.
The "Great Decoupling": Why MCU and Wireless Costs are Structurally Resetting
If you’re still waiting for a "cyclical correction" in semiconductor pricing, you’re looking at an old playbook. The recent price hikes from TI, NXP, Infineon, and STMicroelectronics aren't just a ripple from the AI boom—they represent a fundamental, geopolitical, and structural reset of the embedded world.
As an industry insider, I’m seeing a "Great Decoupling" where the cost of the chips that power the everyday devices around us is detaching from the historical curve of "cheaper every year." Here is what is actually driving the shift.
1. The Geopolitical Premium & The "Helium Hedge"
We can no longer discuss silicon without discussing the map. The escalating conflict involving Iran has introduced a "risk premium" that hits the fab floor directly.
Noble Gas Volatility: Iran-related tensions threaten global supplies of Helium, a critical cooling agent for both advanced and mature-node lithography.
The Sourcing Shift: Geopolitical instability is forcing a retreat from globalized efficiency toward regionalization. Building "homegrown" capacity in the US, EU, and Japan is safer, but it’s significantly more expensive. Foundries are passing these multi-billion dollar CAPEX and energy costs directly to the customer.
2. Not Just "Mature" Nodes, but "Essential" Nodes
While the world chases 2nm, the 8-inch mature nodes (40nm–90nm) have become the most contested real estate in tech. This isn't the "death" of mature nodes; it's their re-valuation.
Zero-Sum Capacity: AI doesn't just pull capital; it pulls engineers and tools. Refurbished 8-inch equipment is now a scarce commodity.
The Squeeze: With utilization at ~90%, there is no "slack" left. When AI demand surges for power management (PMICs) on these same lines, MCU and Wireless SoC supply is the first to feel the price hike.
3. The "Back-End" Revolution (OSAT)
The hidden driver of the 15–85% price jumps we’re seeing is the OSAT (Outsourced Assembly & Test) sector.
Material Inflation: The cost of gold, copper, and specialized molding compounds has surged, driven by global logistics disruptions and energy costs.
Packaging Bottlenecks: Standard packages (QFN, BGA) are no longer the "afterthought" of the bill of materials. OSATs are repricing to reflect a world where labor and electricity are no longer cheap. For an MCU, where the package is a huge chunk of the total cost, this flows directly into your ASP.
The Strategic Takeaway
We aren't seeing a shortage; we are seeing a permanent cost-base reset.
For years, the industry treated the "brains" (MCUs) and "ears" (Wireless) of embedded systems as cheap commodities. Today, they are strategic assets. If you're an OEM, the era of "just-in-time" pricing is over.
Security, software longevity, and supply-chain resilience are now your primary margin levers—because the hardware "floor" has officially moved up.
How is your team adjusting your 5-year BOM projections to account for this permanent shift in mature-node economics?
I told y’all this is the move. Heterogenous hardware is the way forward.
Large cheap pools of mixed memory + specialized accelerators (Nvidia GPUs, DGX Spark, Cerebras wafers)
The next year will be dominated by solutions that split the stack.
- 3000$ for a used Mac Studio with 96gb shared mem
- 750$ for a 3090
120gb mixed memory.
Chinese elites want global hegemony insofar as they want the entire world to be integrated into the Chinese supply chain.
Their “world order” concept is defined by the entire world acting as a resource base (LatAm, Africa, Middle East) and partner/affiliate integrated manufacturing base (SEA, Central Asia). By incorporating the world into their economic bloc, the will facilitate their position at the top of the greatest economy of scale ever - encompassing more than half the world.
Their objective of the BRI (besides providing a strategic hedge against American sea power) is to formalize this incorporation via the construction of infrastructure and the export of Chinese expertise. A new port in Africa might never be paid back in real terms, but expanded access to resource markets and new territory where Chinese firms can set up shop is the actual goal.
China will become the ‘technical center’ for the production of all ‘true’ products - anything that can be commoditized, basically. Since China will have the greatest economy of scale (first in its domestic and then in its expanded global economic bloc) it will be able to most effectively commoditize and win on scale economics, allowing its firms to outcompete all others.
It’s funny how people literally can’t conceive of this
Cities used to be FOR FACTORIES. That’s what they DID. That’s where urban dwellers WORKED. City economies were MANUFACTURING ECONOMIES. Every hip urban neighborhood used to look like GUANGZHOU. Offices were an AFTERTHOUGHT.
Jane Jacobs—great prophet of urban life—comes very close to saying that a city without manufacturing ISN’T A CITY AT ALL
All those cute buildings in New York’s Greenwich Village or Boston’s North End used to MAKE THINGS. 80% of ALL CLOTHES IN AMERICA used to be made in Midtown.
A great reminder that letting startups grow into independently successful businesses, rather than be bought up by existing giants, can generate enormous value.
A win for employees, investors, innovation, and the public.