Sam Dagher

Middle East researcher, author & ex-journalist. Currently UAE-based consultant with @EurasiaGroup focusing on Gulf geoeconomics. Views mine. 🇺🇸/🇱🇧/🇫🇷/🇪🇸

[Sam Dagher @samdagher]

Personal News: Excited to join @EurasiaGroup's Middle East & North Africa team as a consultant, collaborating with the multi-talented @FirasMaksad and other top-notch colleagues and experts. My focus will be on geoeconomics & long-term investments and transformations in the Gulf Arab region (Photo: Blue Eye Picture, Dubai)

[Sam Dagher @samdagher]

“He’s not that tall and doesn’t have good English and people say rude things about the way he looks,” said Hanoch Daube, who served as Eisenkot’s chief of staff when he was deputy head of the military. “But when you have a very tough decision to make, this is the guy you want next to you.”
https://t.co/ioTTqzuhqJ

[Firas Maksad @FirasMaksad]

A key driver of expected US military action against Iran is that while the oil shuttle through Hormuz is working, it’s ultimately unsustainable.

Oil is flowing at pre war levels, but too many tankers are taking hits, according to senior sources.

Trump’s backing of Netanyahu reflects a preference to continue prosecuting the war with a familiar partner.

But Trump’s bet on Bibi is an uncertain one at best. It also comes at the expense of his ambition to expand Arab - Israeli normalization to include Saudi Arabia.

More via @BBCWorld & @EurasiaGroup

[عبدالله بن الحسين @KingAbdullahII]

The terrorist attack against Karak will be met with the harshest retaliation. Those who delude themselves into thinking that they can divide Jordanians with their bullets have no chance in the face of our unity. All Jordanians, from north to south, are partners in land and fate, and nothing stands between them. Our deepest condolences to the families of the martyrs and we wish a speedy recovery to those injured.

Every Jordanian life is precious, and we will strike with an iron fist against those who dare to threaten our nation

[Sam Dagher @samdagher]

Horrible attack in #Jordan https://t.co/9cEXpU5Wmc

[Institute for the Study of War @TheStudyofWar]

NEW: SPECIAL REPORT | How Hezbollah Is Preventing Its Disarmament, Again

Hezbollah supporters blocked roads in Beirut and protested the Lebanese government’s attempts to assert sovereignty on October 16 and 17, after a series of government internal security raids compromised Hezbollah’s weapons smuggling, illicit finance, and de facto statelets within Lebanon.

Lebanese government initiatives to disarm Hezbollah over the past two decades failed because Hezbollah repeatedly succeeded in coercing the government to abandon its course. Hezbollah is a formidable military organization even after recent setbacks. It has ample weaponry, some (albeit decreased) support among Lebanon’s Shia population, and an institutionalized role in the Lebanese government.

Hezbollah views efforts to deter it as an existential threat, and dismantling Hezbollah’s military organization would be akin to the destruction of Hezbollah. Hezbollah is not a political party; it is a military force that created a political party and social apparatus to protect itself.

The United States and international partners must support the LAF’s disarmament efforts and ensure that the Lebanese government outpaces Hezbollah’s reconstruction efforts to wrest popular support from the group.

There are two key areas where the United States can use limited resources to realize outsized gains:

1. Reconstruction Aid: The United States, Lebanon, and international partners must carefully manage and provide reconstruction aid to southern Lebanon through government institutions that Hezbollah has not infiltrated.

2. Military Advisers: A relatively small force of US advisers may be able to have an outsized effect on the capabilities of the Lebanese army.

[Sam Dagher @samdagher]

Report from Dammam in #SaudiArabia’s Eastern Province which has been targeted repeatedly by the Iran-backed Houthis
https://t.co/2X2JjMLh50

[The National @TheNationalNews]

The UAE has announced it plans to invest €15 billion into Greece, building on the joint investment initiative, which was launched in May 2022 with a value of €4 billion. The plan was unveiled on the sidelines of an official visit to the European country by Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi.

[Sam Dagher @samdagher]

UAE says tanker oil spill affects beaches in Umm Al-Quwain https://t.co/VX8PTz9IRg

[Lana Nusseibeh @Lana_Nusseibeh]

I am standing to be Secretary-General because I believe this is a moment to act with greater urgency: to act earlier, bring people together across difference, and drive the work forward until it produces concrete results. That is how we rebuild trust in the United Nations and ensure it delivers meaningful change for the people it exists to serve.

My vision: https://t.co/G449B8vaTI

[Farnaz Fassihi @farnazfassihi]

Exclusive: U.S. and Israel draw up plans for renewed strikes on Iran after midterm elections. Iranian officials have promised to retaliate this time by expanding their targets, saying war will not be quick nor limited. Our story: w/ @julianbarnes @EricSchmittNYT @ronenbergman @natan_oden

https://t.co/mNA7fZNN6d

[مالك الروقي @alrougui]

عاجل :

اجتماع باسطنبول غدا لوزراء خارجية تركيا والسعودية ومصر وباكستان وألمانيا وفرنسا وبريطانيا

[Ziad Daoud @ZiadMDaoud]

Saudi Arabia is cash rich: ~$700 billion in foreign assets

But cashflow poor: it has been running two deficits (chart)

The Iran war, and the fighting with the Houthis, are adding to the bill

Full analysis on @TheTerminal

[IMF Middle East & North Africa @IMFinMENA]

IMF 2026 Forecast for MENAP:

🇩🇿 Algeria: 3.8%
🇪🇬 Egypt: 5.1%
🇮🇷 Iran: -7.6%
🇮🇶 Iraq: -16.0%
🇯🇴 Jordan: 2.7%
🇰🇼 Kuwait: -16.7%
🇲🇦 Morocco: 4.5%
🇵🇰 Pakistan: 3.6%
🇶🇦 Qatar: -15.6%
🇸🇦 Saudi: -3.3%
🇸🇴 Somalia: 2.3%
🇸🇩 Sudan: 7.0%
🇦🇪 UAE: -3.9%
🇾🇪 Yemen: -1.5%
https://t.co/xWFn5pP7fW

[Sam Dagher @samdagher]

How Qatar, Turkiye, Pakistan and Indonesia are deepening defence ties https://t.co/SUNcFoZdeC via @AJEnglish

[L'Orient Today @lorienttoday]

#Focus | Banking reform: Constitutional Council ruling leaves power struggle unresolved

The annulment of Article 3 preserves the reference to the Code of Money and Credit, which the IMF says needs modernizing.

Read @Mouniryouniss' article below
https://t.co/DACC0hzPvB

[Bachar EL-Halabi | بشار الحلبي @Bacharelhalabi]

🇺🇸The US security role in the Middle East is “not a commitment to open seas and open trade at any cost,” @USAMBTurkiye told the #Doha Security Forum today.
Asked whether the oil-for-security bargain had ended, Barrack said: “It hasn’t ended. It’s transitioning.”
“We’re not leaving,” he added, but regional countries can no longer rely on Washington to solve all their security problems.

[EDGE @_edgegroup]

We were privileged to welcome His Highness Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, President of the UAE, and French President Emmanuel Macron to EDGE’s advanced manufacturing facilities in Abu Dhabi.

[The Wall Street Journal @WSJ]

Persian Gulf oil exports have surpassed prewar levels, as an improvised shipping system under U.S. protection is helping tankers move oil through one of Iran’s fiercest waves of attacks in the Strait of Hormuz. https://t.co/hjmlt17brV

[Reuters @Reuters]

Iran tells Pakistan army chief no talks with Washington until demands are met https://t.co/SmMfgOQH23 https://t.co/SmMfgOQH23

[Ziad Daoud @ZiadMDaoud]

A Gulf bailout for Bahrain is a matter of how, not if

Even before the Iran war, markets were betting on one

The war has made the need more urgent

But its financial toll & regional politics complicate matters

1/5