Yusen Lin

Founder of | Helping retail investors build sharper minds and stronger systems.

[Yusen Lin @SamuelLan11]

@JonkooTrades the +14% in 2028 isn't the scary part, the depreciation from 2026-27 landing in the p&l is. cash shows it first: msft's last quarter capex was $41b (+70% yoy) and fcf went from $20.3b to $15.8b. earnings catch up later

[Yusen Lin @SamuelLan11]

@JasonL_Capital this is the supplier side of the same trade. the buyer side: msft's last quarter capex was $41b (+70% yoy) and fcf fell from $20.3b to $15.8b. your picks print what the hyperscalers have to fund

[Yusen Lin @SamuelLan11]

@DavidAgentic @StockSavvyShay which is why it's a cloud product, not a model feature. only whoever owns the infra under the models can put the switch outside the runtime. that's the part the $41b a quarter of capex is actually buying

[Yusen Lin @SamuelLan11]

@mistressdivy if net cash is ~$20b, one quarter of capex is already 2x that. msft's last quarter was $41b (+70% yoy) and fcf fell from $20.3b to $15.8b. no leverage today, but the cushion shrinks fast at that pace

[Yusen Lin @SamuelLan11]

@iamharxh msft is the one where the meme shows up in the numbers. last quarter capex hit $41b (+70% yoy) while free cash flow went from $20.3b to $15.8b. growth is real, the cash conversion is the open question

[Yusen Lin @SamuelLan11]

full breakdown, incl. what the brake does to microsoft's capex math and who else is exposed: https://t.co/vnsVh0spbH

[Yusen Lin @SamuelLan11]

nadella just asked for an "emergency brake" on frontier ai models. same quarter: capex $41b (+70% yoy), free cash flow $20.3b -> $15.8b, and a ~$190b 2026 capex plan. nobody buys insurance on a bet they're sure about. the capex is the bet. the brake is the hedge

[Yusen Lin @SamuelLan11]

Dimon's AI warning this week: 2M truckers going from $150K a year to a $25K job means "civil unrest," so phase it in.

Worth knowing: $150K is the top of the range. BLS median for heavy truck drivers is ~$57K. The squeeze is real, the starting point is lower.

[Yusen Lin @SamuelLan11]

Caveat: Lennar guided Q4 margins to 15.5-16% and said incentives may stay aggressive. This reads as a 2027 bet, not a next-quarter one. Breakdown: https://t.co/LPZ3QysQxd

[Yusen Lin @SamuelLan11]

Berkshire now owns ~11.2% of Lennar. The timing is the interesting part: most of it was bought the week Lennar cut delivery guidance for the 2nd time this year and the 30-year mortgage broke 7%.

[Yusen Lin @SamuelLan11]

It's also not a standalone stock bet. Berkshire closed the $8.5B Taylor Morrison deal in July and already owns Shaw, Johns Manville, MiTek, Acme Brick, Benjamin Moore. It gets paid whether the recovery shows up as volume, price, or consolidation.

[Yusen Lin @SamuelLan11]

@GRITCULT honestly that's more a sizing rule than a courage thing. write the check so a zero doesn't change your life

[Yusen Lin @SamuelLan11]

Vendor financing isn't new (Nvidia-OpenAI, AMD-Anthropic). But when the seller funds the buyer, revenue quality is the number to watch, not revenue growth. Breakdown: https://t.co/Ms8vExCC40

[Yusen Lin @SamuelLan11]

Anthropic's IPO filing has a line worth rereading: Broadcom agreed to lend it up to $42B, to lease Broadcom-designed TPUs. That's the same size as Anthropic's 2025 net loss. Revenue was $4.6B.

[Yusen Lin @SamuelLan11]

It can afford it: $13.7B of free cash flow last quarter alone. The risk isn't the principal, it's concentration. ~$161B of Anthropic's obligations are Broadcom-related, ~80% non-cancellable, and Broadcom's FY28 AI target leans on that ramp.

[Yusen Lin @SamuelLan11]

@MikeZaccardi top end isn't comfy either tho. goldman has 36% of $300k+ households paycheck to paycheck, it's just housing instead of energy

[Yusen Lin @SamuelLan11]

Caveat: paycheck to paycheck is self-reported, and a $300K household maxing a 401k can feel tight on paper. But the trade-down showing up in earnings is real. Breakdown: https://t.co/TQy3RVjVEM

[Yusen Lin @SamuelLan11]

Goldman's 2026 retirement survey has a weird shape. Living paycheck to paycheck: 42% of people under $100K. 23% at $100K-$300K. 36% of people over $300K. The stress isn't a line that falls with income, it's a U.

[Yusen Lin @SamuelLan11]

And the stocks already priced it. Lululemon is 58% off its high after cutting guidance. Ralph Lauren sits near its high, Tapestry grew sales 11%. Rich households aren't quitting the category, they're trading down one price tier.