Hot take: a lot of people wouldn’t be able to tell the difference if they were randomly routed between gpt-5.5, opus-4.8, or fable-5 for their day to day work
Life is amazing:
-gyms exist
-Coke Zero exists
-hot girls outnumber even moderately put-together dudes 2000 to 1
-every food item in the world has been hunted and gathered for you (grocery stores)
-you and your wife can drink 4 bottles of wine then smash all night without a condom
-you and your friends can hit the gym then smoke a joint at a John Mayer concert
-you could be working 16 hour days in a coal mine in a third world country breaking your lower back for less than $1
There’s kids who live in wheelchairs. There’s kids born with disabilities. No Prom, no Shoulder Presses, no sleepovers with their best friends staying up until 2AM watching Interstellar.
And you’re not SMASHING the gym like a grateful SAVAGE!? Eating healthy 90% of the time, calling your friends for no reason, CRUSHING it in your career, asking for the promotion, asking out your crush making her your girlfriend then your wife!?
You’re spinning on a sphere in an infinite universe and the fact you’re alive is a 1 in 500 trillion MIRACLE. You’re so lucky it’s absurd and you have nothing to lose :)
I keep realizing things flip so fast in AI you really can't predict who will win or lose
Claude Code was leading for every dev, Anthropic were the good guys, OpenAI were becoming the bad guys buying up all the RAM
I even switched from ChatGPT considering how ugly I felt the Times New Roman style serif font was
Then OpenClaw shows up, becomes the most popular project since the new AI wave and instead of celebrating it, Anthropic decides to DMCA @steipete, this annoys him and he starts (or continues?) to promote OpenAI's Codex instead of Claude Code
Then @sama and @finkd try to buy him and he goes with OpenAI and that's it and now OpenAI owns the narrative again
I’m LONG everything.
- America will fix its problems
- no war with China
- wars in Europe and the Middle East end
- we will solve housing
- we will solve addiction
- we will fix social security and the debt problem
- California will wake up and get out of its own way
- we will legalize building again
- billionaires will build great public projects
No doomerism.
The world will get richer, safer, and more peaceful.
More people will get medicine and money and buy cool shit.
I’m long everything.
A few random notes from claude coding quite a bit last few weeks.
Coding workflow. Given the latest lift in LLM coding capability, like many others I rapidly went from about 80% manual+autocomplete coding and 20% agents in November to 80% agent coding and 20% edits+touchups in December. i.e. I really am mostly programming in English now, a bit sheepishly telling the LLM what code to write... in words. It hurts the ego a bit but the power to operate over software in large "code actions" is just too net useful, especially once you adapt to it, configure it, learn to use it, and wrap your head around what it can and cannot do. This is easily the biggest change to my basic coding workflow in ~2 decades of programming and it happened over the course of a few weeks. I'd expect something similar to be happening to well into double digit percent of engineers out there, while the awareness of it in the general population feels well into low single digit percent.
IDEs/agent swarms/fallability. Both the "no need for IDE anymore" hype and the "agent swarm" hype is imo too much for right now. The models definitely still make mistakes and if you have any code you actually care about I would watch them like a hawk, in a nice large IDE on the side. The mistakes have changed a lot - they are not simple syntax errors anymore, they are subtle conceptual errors that a slightly sloppy, hasty junior dev might do. The most common category is that the models make wrong assumptions on your behalf and just run along with them without checking. They also don't manage their confusion, they don't seek clarifications, they don't surface inconsistencies, they don't present tradeoffs, they don't push back when they should, and they are still a little too sycophantic. Things get better in plan mode, but there is some need for a lightweight inline plan mode. They also really like to overcomplicate code and APIs, they bloat abstractions, they don't clean up dead code after themselves, etc. They will implement an inefficient, bloated, brittle construction over 1000 lines of code and it's up to you to be like "umm couldn't you just do this instead?" and they will be like "of course!" and immediately cut it down to 100 lines. They still sometimes change/remove comments and code they don't like or don't sufficiently understand as side effects, even if it is orthogonal to the task at hand. All of this happens despite a few simple attempts to fix it via instructions in CLAUDE . md. Despite all these issues, it is still a net huge improvement and it's very difficult to imagine going back to manual coding. TLDR everyone has their developing flow, my current is a small few CC sessions on the left in ghostty windows/tabs and an IDE on the right for viewing the code + manual edits.
Tenacity. It's so interesting to watch an agent relentlessly work at something. They never get tired, they never get demoralized, they just keep going and trying things where a person would have given up long ago to fight another day. It's a "feel the AGI" moment to watch it struggle with something for a long time just to come out victorious 30 minutes later. You realize that stamina is a core bottleneck to work and that with LLMs in hand it has been dramatically increased.
Speedups. It's not clear how to measure the "speedup" of LLM assistance. Certainly I feel net way faster at what I was going to do, but the main effect is that I do a lot more than I was going to do because 1) I can code up all kinds of things that just wouldn't have been worth coding before and 2) I can approach code that I couldn't work on before because of knowledge/skill issue. So certainly it's speedup, but it's possibly a lot more an expansion.
Leverage. LLMs are exceptionally good at looping until they meet specific goals and this is where most of the "feel the AGI" magic is to be found. Don't tell it what to do, give it success criteria and watch it go. Get it to write tests first and then pass them. Put it in the loop with a browser MCP. Write the naive algorithm that is very likely correct first, then ask it to optimize it while preserving correctness. Change your approach from imperative to declarative to get the agents looping longer and gain leverage.
Fun. I didn't anticipate that with agents programming feels *more* fun because a lot of the fill in the blanks drudgery is removed and what remains is the creative part. I also feel less blocked/stuck (which is not fun) and I experience a lot more courage because there's almost always a way to work hand in hand with it to make some positive progress. I have seen the opposite sentiment from other people too; LLM coding will split up engineers based on those who primarily liked coding and those who primarily liked building.
Atrophy. I've already noticed that I am slowly starting to atrophy my ability to write code manually. Generation (writing code) and discrimination (reading code) are different capabilities in the brain. Largely due to all the little mostly syntactic details involved in programming, you can review code just fine even if you struggle to write it.
Slopacolypse. I am bracing for 2026 as the year of the slopacolypse across all of github, substack, arxiv, X/instagram, and generally all digital media. We're also going to see a lot more AI hype productivity theater (is that even possible?), on the side of actual, real improvements.
Questions. A few of the questions on my mind:
- What happens to the "10X engineer" - the ratio of productivity between the mean and the max engineer? It's quite possible that this grows *a lot*.
- Armed with LLMs, do generalists increasingly outperform specialists? LLMs are a lot better at fill in the blanks (the micro) than grand strategy (the macro).
- What does LLM coding feel like in the future? Is it like playing StarCraft? Playing Factorio? Playing music?
- How much of society is bottlenecked by digital knowledge work?
TLDR Where does this leave us? LLM agent capabilities (Claude & Codex especially) have crossed some kind of threshold of coherence around December 2025 and caused a phase shift in software engineering and closely related. The intelligence part suddenly feels quite a bit ahead of all the rest of it - integrations (tools, knowledge), the necessity for new organizational workflows, processes, diffusion more generally. 2026 is going to be a high energy year as the industry metabolizes the new capability.
In watching the clip below of Danya's last stream and hearing the pain in his voice, how deeply the baseless accusations affected him, I am left so mad at what we all allowed to happen right in front of us.
It's time to stop worrying about the backlash. I am calling on the FIDE EDC to remove Vladimir Kramnik from the FIDE record books, revoke his title, and disqualify his world championship. Chess is one of the most beloved games in the world and should be a place for kindness and inclusion. It should be unilaterally unacceptable to use a platform that Chess has given you to bully, harass, and slander a colleague. What Kramnik has done to David Navara, Hikaru, and Danya, and others can not be tolerated.
It is up to our community and the governing body to set an example that this type of behavior will have consequences. Make it known loud and clear that Chess stands against these hateful acts. If you do them intentionally and maliciously there will be no place for you in our game.
FIDE and it's EDC must establish clear policies moving forward around the safety of it's players both in person and digitally. The events leading up to this tragedy happened in broad daylight over the last 18 months. They could have been stopped. Nothing like this can ever be allowed to happen again.
Danya was more than an amazing, inspirational face and voice of our game, he was a friend and brother. The news is devastating for the chess world and all who knew him. It’s impossible to put words to this kind of loss. My love, thoughts and prayers are with his family.
Unimaginable tragedy. A great person, chess player and chess history connoisseur. I could listen do Danya for hours just effortlessly bending the English language to his will - as a fellow content creator, I admired it greatly. R.I.P.
"Too high a price paid" then credit yourself? We just lost someone who gave more to this world in one smile than you could in 10 lifetimes and you may be the biggest reason why. Fuck you, you self righteous cancer. I hope anyone you have left close to you sees you for who you really are.
There are people who can understand plans that take place over hundreds of years, across generations that keep the same goal in mind without forgetting.
And then there are people who think that life is about you, the individual, and how many vacations you get.
The greatest wars take place between different groups of the first kind, while the second lives and dies without ever learning of them.
Vibe coding is crazy man.
Met a 12yr old making $600k a month with his vibe-coded SaaS he started 4 months ago.
I asked how he built so fast. He said he just made a design-doc in GPT and fed it to Cursor with Sonnet-4 and it worked first try.
His goal is to get to $2M a month this year.
Running everything under his Moms Stripe account.
His firebase got hacked and sensitive user information got leaked. Got arrested and being tried as an adult but the SaaS is still printing though.
None of this happened btw.
In 2010, Aaron Swartz downloaded 70GBs of articles from JSTOR. He faced $1 million fine and 35 years in jail. He took his life in 2013.
Meta illegaly downloaded 80+ terabytes of books from LibGen, Anna's Archive, and Z-library to train their AI models without any punishment.
If u really loved yourself, you'd lift weights 4-6x per week, eat lots of whole foods, drink good teas & coffees, read & write often, randomly break into sprints, & maybe judge yourself a little less harshly while still upholding godly standards of excellence & healthy boundaries