Sandy Rodrigues

📈📊 Só mercado financeiro…💰

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

The AI revolution needs more funding:

Net equity issuances are estimated to rise to ~$200 billion in 2026 and surge +500% YoY in 2027, to ~$1.2 trillion, according to JP Morgan.

This includes IPOs, secondary offerings, and other share sales after accounting for buybacks.

Combined, this would be the largest 2-year period of net stock issuance since at least the late 1990s.

This marks a sharp reversal from ~$12 trillion of shares repurchased in the previous 20 years, shrinking the available stock supply consistently each year.

The surge is being driven by SpaceX's, $SPCX, $85.7 billion IPO, the largest in history, alongside upcoming mega IPOs from OpenAI and Anthropic.

At the same time, Alphabet, $GOOGL, Meta, $META, and Oracle, $ORCL, are expected to raise hundreds of billions in secondary share offerings to fund their AI spending plans.

We are about to witness a historic wave of US equity issuance.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Technology CapEx spending is exploding:

The CapEx-to-Sales ratio of developed market tech firms is up to a record 11.5%.

Over the last 2 years, this percentage has risen +4 points, far outpacing any other 2-year increase in history.

To put this into perspective, the previous peaks seen in the 1990s and early 2000s were at 9.0% and 8.5%.

By comparison, the developed market excluding tech CapEx-to-Sales ratio stands at just 7.0%, below its own long-term average.

The AI buildout is also driving investment spending higher in other sectors, with utilities now leading at a CapEx-to-Sales ratio of ~23%, well above its long-term average of ~15%.

The AI investment boom is reshaping capital allocation across the entire economy.

[Sandy Rodrigues @SandyRsilvaG]

@igor_mundstock Não, isso não é um taco 🤭🤔

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

Only times in history where the Semiconductor Index gained more than 230% in a 14-month span:

1) December 1998 - February 2000
2) April 2025 - Today

That's the entire list.

[Fundo Versa @FundoVersa]

🇧🇷 💳
As vendas do varejo de abril vieram em -1.5% MoM, abaixo do consenso (-0.6%)

Varejo ampliado: -0.7%
🛒 Supermercados: +1.3%
📺 Móveis e eletro: -0.8%
🚗 Veículos: -0.7%

🔍 Confira!

[Sandy Rodrigues @SandyRsilvaG]

@igor_mundstock Está bem difícil entender o comportamento do Sr Mercado

[Sandy Rodrigues @SandyRsilvaG]

@femisapien_z Hoje achava que era um dia típico de rotação … mas mercado só quer saber das techs…

[Jayme Simão @JaymeSimao]

O capex das hyperscalers virou a maior corrida de investimento da história recente.

O Morgan Stanley já vê US$ 805 bilhões em 2026 e US$ 1,1 trilhão em 2027, contra US$ 765 bilhões e US$ 950 bilhões anteriores.

O Goldman vai além e diz que até isso está conservador, projetando algo perto de US$ 1,4 trilhão.

Para dimensionar: o gasto saiu de US$ 261 bilhões em 2024 para mais de US$ 1,1 trilhão em 2027. CAGR de 69% no Google, 54% na Microsoft e 116% na Oracle.

A leitura tem dois lados. É a maior aposta corporativa já vista na infraestrutura de IA, e sustenta toda a cadeia de chips, energia e data centers.

Mas é capex que ainda precisa virar receita, com a depreciação chegando antes do payback.

Veremos…

[Brooks Whale X 🐋 @BrooksWhaleX]

🚨 SHOCKING: LISA SU’S $1,499 LUNCHBOX ANNIHILATES NVIDIA’S $4K AI BEAST!

AMD CEO Lisa Su walked on stage, held a lunchbox sized PC in one hand, and ran a 235 billion parameter model live.

No data center. No cloud. No rented GPU.

The chip inside is the AMD Ryzen AI Max+ 395. It is the first x86 chip where the CPU and GPU share the same pool of memory. Up to 128GB of unified memory. That one design choice is what changes everything.

An RTX 5090 gives you 32GB of video memory. A 4090 gives you 24. This box gives you more than three times either of them in a chassis you can carry in a backpack.

On DeepSeek R1 inference, AMD's chip beat an Nvidia RTX 5080 by more than 3x. A desktop the size of a thick paperback outrunning a dedicated graphics card that costs over a thousand dollars on a real AI workload.

Now do the math on your subscriptions.

Claude Code Max is $200 a month. ChatGPT Pro is another $200. Cursor is $20. Gemini is $20. That is $5,280 leaving your account every year before you build a single thing.

The 128GB version of this machine starts at around $2,399. At that run rate it pays for itself in under a year and then runs free.

Install Ollama. Pull Qwen3 235B. Point Claude Code at localhost. Same interface you already use. Nothing leaves your machine. Nothing costs per request. No throttling at 3am when you finally have time to build.

Lawyers stop worrying about what OpenAI does with their files. Developers stop watching the token counter. Founders stop killing prototypes because the cloud bill scared them off.

Private AI just became something a normal person can own.

[Evan @StockMKTNewz]

The 🇺🇸 Trump administration’s decision to halt all foreign use of Anthropic’s most-capable AI models was prompted by conversations between Amazon $AMZN CEO Andy Jassy

Researchers at Amazon had used a series of prompts to get Anthropic’s Fable 5 model to provide them with information that could be used to aid cyberattacks and was supposed to be off-limits

Shortly afterward, White House officials held a meeting to discuss how to respond. The officials asked Anthropic to fix the vulnerabilities or take down the model

(Source WSJ)

[E. Cavendish @ducavendish]

Saiu o IPCA de Maio, variação de +4,72% anual.

O que você nota no gráfico?

[Sandy Rodrigues @SandyRsilvaG]

@alexcabral71 Voto registrado !

[Fundo Versa @FundoVersa]

🇧🇷 📊
O IPCA de maio veio em +0.58% MoM, acima do consenso (+0.53%)

Administrados: +0.44%
Livres: +0.64%
Alimentos dom.: +1.65%
Serviços (ex-pa): +0.34%
Industriais: +0.32%
M. Núcleos: +0.45%(+5.4% a.a saar)

🔍 Confira!

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

The AI buildout is fueling record Big Tech borrowing:

Alphabet $GOOGL, Amazon $AMZN, Meta $META, Microsoft $MSFT, and Oracle $ORCL have issued a record $159 billion in corporate bonds in 2026.

This already surpasses the full-year 2025 total by +47% or +$51 billion.

To put this into perspective, between 2020 and 2024, these companies issued a total of ~$150 billion in debt.

Oracle alone has issued $43 billion since September 2025.

Meanwhile, AI-related global debt issuance is expected to more than double to a record ~$570 billion in 2026, according to Morgan Stanley.

AI is reshaping global credit markets.

[Igor Mundstock @igor_mundstock]

Maior inflação ao produtor (PPI) dos EUA desde meados de 2022/23, acima de 6,4% no acumulado de 12 meses. A inflação de bens variou acima de 1% ao mês pelo quarto mês seguido, totalizando alta de 10,25% no acumulado de 12 meses.

"I love the inflation"
- Donald Trump

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Inflation in the US is now up to levels that were last seen after $4 trillion in pandemic stimulus was handed out for "free."

The worst part?

Most Americans have no idea that it is happening.

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

OIL EXECUTIVES WARN WHITE HOUSE THAT GAS PRICES WILL GET WORSE

Oil and gas executives have warned the White House that gasoline prices could rise sharply in coming months as fuel inventories fall to critically low levels. The warning complicates efforts to curb inflation, which is already weighing on US consumers, according to the Washington Post.

[Fundo Versa @FundoVersa]

🇧🇷 📉
O volume total de serviços de abril veio em +1.2% MoM, acima do consenso (+0.8%)

💇‍♂️ Serviços às famílias: +1.4%
📡 Comunicação e TI: +0.5%
🔧 Técnicos e profiss.: +0.4%
🚆 Transportes: +0.9%

🔍 Confira!

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

"Most of my high level investor discussions focus on one major topic: when will the party end? Put another way, tech investors have made so much money in Semis so quickly that they are looking for potential warning signs that the music is about to stop." - JPM

[Lisa Abramowicz @lisaabramowicz1]

This chart paints both the hope and fear of tech capex. Oracle's spending has risen exponentially, far beyond its (& investor) expectations. As every tech company tries to force their ballooning capex plans into the market's pipes, we're starting to see indigestion.