Science Sense

[Chris Martz @ChrisMartzWX]

Why do I distrust climate “scientists”?

Because everyone has bias. Not a single person on is immune, especially career academics and most federal employees (e.g., research scientists) who are overwhelmingly far-left ideologues.

In the 1980s when “global warming” was an emerging “issue” of scientific interest, politicians like then-Senator Al Gore (who would later become Bill Clinton's Vice President and then lose to George W. Bush in the highly contested 2000 U.S. Presidential election) saw this as an opportunity to use the scientific community at large to build a hard case to regulate energy companies, industry, and give the federal government more power over private enterprises and your individual behavior.

In 1988, far before there was an [alleged] “scientific consensus,” the Toronto Conference on the Changing Atmosphere was assembled to urge governments to adopt policies that reduced their carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions by 20% by 2005 because of the supposed threat of “catastrophic human-caused global warming.” They stated,

🗨️ “𝑻𝒉𝒆 𝑪𝒐𝒏𝒇𝒆𝒓𝒆𝒏𝒄𝒆 𝒖𝒓𝒈𝒆𝒔 𝒊𝒎𝒎𝒆𝒅𝒊𝒂𝒕𝒆 𝒂𝒄𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏 𝑏𝑦 𝑔𝑜𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑛𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠... [𝒕]𝒐... [𝒓]𝒆𝒅𝒖𝒄𝒆 𝑪𝑶₂ 𝒆𝒎𝒊𝒔𝒔𝒊𝒐𝒏𝒔 𝒃𝒚 𝒂𝒑𝒑𝒓𝒐𝒙𝒊𝒎𝒂𝒕𝒆𝒍𝒚 𝟐𝟎% 𝒐𝒇 𝟏𝟗𝟖𝟖 𝒍𝒆𝒗𝒆𝒍𝒔 𝒃𝒚 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒚𝒆𝒂𝒓 𝟐𝟎𝟎𝟓 𝑎𝑠 𝑎𝑛 𝑖𝑛𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑎𝑙 𝑔𝑙𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑙 𝑔𝑜𝑎𝑙.”

🔗 https://t.co/rH7yD9YJUJ (p. 296)

Yet, the First Assessment Report of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC FAR) published in 1990 found no evidence that catastrophic global warming had been occurring, much less anything beyond the bounds of natural variability, stating,

🗨️ “𝑻𝒉𝒆 𝒔𝒊𝒛𝒆 𝒐𝒇 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒘𝒂𝒓𝒎𝒊𝒏𝒈 𝒐𝒗𝒆𝒓 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒍𝒂𝒔𝒕 𝒄𝒆𝒏𝒕𝒖𝒓𝒚 𝒊𝒔 𝑏𝑟𝑜𝑎𝑑𝑙𝑦 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑤𝑖𝑡ℎ 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑝𝑟𝑒𝑑𝑖𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑏𝑦 𝑐𝑙𝑖𝑚𝑎𝑡𝑒 𝑚𝑜𝑑𝑒𝑙𝑠, 𝑏𝑢𝑡 𝑖𝑠 𝒂𝒍𝒔𝒐 𝒐𝒇 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒔𝒂𝒎𝒆 𝒎𝒂𝒈𝒏𝒊𝒕𝒖𝒅𝒆 𝒂𝒔 𝒏𝒂𝒕𝒖𝒓𝒂𝒍 𝒄𝒍𝒊𝒎𝒂𝒕𝒆 𝒗𝒂𝒓𝒊𝒂𝒃𝒊𝒍𝒊𝒕𝒚.”

🔗 https://t.co/zZLf3TApJb (p. 53)

Despite the lack of evidence to support regulations on CO₂ emissions, in 1992, the United Nations went ahead with their UNFCCC Treaty to prevent “dangerous emission-driven anthropogenic global warming,” which 196 countries, including the U.S., signed.

🗨️ “𝑻𝒉𝒆 𝑢𝑙𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑎𝑡𝑒 𝒐𝒃𝒋𝒆𝒄𝒕𝒊𝒗𝒆 𝒐𝒇 𝑡ℎ𝑖𝑠 𝐶𝑜𝑛𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝒂𝒏𝒚 𝒓𝒆𝒍𝒂𝒕𝒆𝒅 𝒍𝒆𝒈𝒂𝒍 𝒊𝒏𝒔𝒕𝒓𝒖𝒎𝒆𝒏𝒕𝒔 𝒕𝒉𝒂𝒕 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝑪𝒐𝒏𝒇𝒆𝒓𝒆𝒏𝒄𝒆 𝒐𝒇 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝑷𝒂𝒓𝒕𝒊𝒆𝒔 𝒎𝒂𝒚 𝒂𝒅𝒐𝒑𝒕 𝒊𝒔 𝒕𝒐 𝒂𝒄𝒉𝒊𝒆𝒗𝒆, 𝑖𝑛 𝑎𝑐𝑐𝑜𝑟𝑑𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑒 𝑤𝑖𝑡ℎ 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑟𝑒𝑙𝑒𝑣𝑎𝑛𝑡 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑣𝑖𝑠𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑠 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝐶𝑜𝑛𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛, 𝒔𝒕𝒂𝒃𝒊𝒍𝒊𝒛𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏 𝒐𝒇 𝒈𝒓𝒆𝒆𝒏𝒉𝒐𝒖𝒔𝒆 𝒈𝒂𝒔 𝒄𝒐𝒏𝒄𝒆𝒏𝒕𝒓𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏𝒔 𝒊𝒏 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒂𝒕𝒎𝒐𝒔𝒑𝒉𝒆𝒓𝒆 𝒂𝒕 𝒂 𝒍𝒆𝒗𝒆𝒍 𝒕𝒉𝒂𝒕 𝒘𝒐𝒖𝒍𝒅 𝒑𝒓𝒆𝒗𝒆𝒏𝒕 𝒅𝒂𝒏𝒈𝒆𝒓𝒐𝒖𝒔 𝒂𝒏𝒕𝒉𝒓𝒐𝒑𝒐𝒈𝒆𝒏𝒊𝒄 𝒊𝒏𝒕𝒆𝒓𝒇𝒆𝒓𝒆𝒏𝒄𝒆 𝑤𝑖𝑡ℎ 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑐𝑙𝑖𝑚𝑎𝑡𝑒 𝑠𝑦𝑠𝑡𝑒𝑚.”

🔗 https://t.co/V7G4EVz2vm (p. 4)

The original draft of the second IPCC report in 1995 essentially concluded the same thing as FAR (1990), but the report, along with its summary, was rewritten under pressure from policymakers and bureaucrats to have a stronger finding of “dangerous global warming.”

The policy cart was placed ahead of the scientific horse decades ago.

As a consequence, most of “the science” today has lost credibility because much of it is not independently produced, but rather manufactured and influenced by politics. What's more, many “experts” writing papers and drafting government assessments are left-wing. If the opposite were true, it would be just as problematic in my view, but it isn't the case.

Them being overwhelmingly biased to one side colors how they both interpret scientific data and convey that information to the public. They want to be heroes who “saved the planet,” not dispassionate truth seekers.

[Electroverse @Electroversenet]

The Guardian says a study shows Greenland is losing 30 million tons of ice per hour. Sounds terrifying until you add scale.

If, for argument's sake, we accept the questionable headline rate, that works out to roughly 263 gigatons lost per year. But Greenland holds 2.8 million gigatons, meaning total loss would take over 10,000 years.

And the study itself adds important context. Much of its newly counted loss comes from glacier retreat in fjords where ice was already below the sea, so it does not raise sea levels in the way the headline implies.

This is how climate fear works: Huge number. No denominator. No time scale. Just blind panic.

[Chris Martz @ChrisMartzWX]

Why is it hot in Europe this week?

Well, it has to do with the “omega block” in the jet stream. Omega blocks get their name because they resemble the Greek uppercase letter omega, Ω.

You can see that in the synoptic setup. The map below on the left shows the 500 mb geopotential height anomaly at 18z. The contour lines resemble the Ω shape due to an enormous high-pressure ridge in the mid-troposphere that is sandwiched between two low-pressure systems to its east and west.

Hot Saharan air has been advected—that is, horizontally transported—northward into western Europe due to anticyclonic (clockwise) airflow, and as that air mass moves north, it is compressed adiabatically beneath the ridge where air is sinking.

This process is natural and has nothing whatsoever to do with climate change or greenhouse gas emissions. In fact, there are quite a few studies suggesting that reduced latitudinal baroclinicity (north-to-south temperature gradient) caused by Arctic amplification could reduce the frequency of mid- and high-latitude blocking events (e.g., Hassanzadeh et al., 2014; Woollings et al., 2018).

🔗 https://t.co/NGsFsRKpEt

🔗 https://t.co/M7h3vg232H

There is, however, debate about this.

Europe has seen an unusual amount of these extreme heat events since 2019, but most other areas of the globe have not. The notable exception was the June–July 2021 Pacific Northwest heatwave in North America, but even that wasn’t as rare as previously thought.

🔗 https://t.co/rNRFfJohs4

The most likely explanation for this boils down to a combination of two things:

1️⃣ Undiagnosed changes in atmospheric circulation patterns.

2️⃣ Increased absorbed solar radiation at the surface due to reduced stratiform low- and mid-level cloud cover (increased sunniness), some of which is likely due to reduced atmospheric aerosol concentrations from the EU’s strict pollution regulations.

The overall increase in the “global mean temperature” (which mostly affects overnight lows) has very little to do with this event. Even in a “pre-industrialized” climate, a record-breaking heatwave would still be happening. Heck, the “global mean temperature” fell today despite the heat cranking up in Europe.

This is mostly weather systems moving around. When you have a chaotic system with two turbulent fluids interacting with each other (the atmosphere and ocean), wild things can happen.

Get your weather information from real meteorologists, not sensationalistic clickbait news outlets like BBC News or the Daily Mail.

[Science Sense @ScienceSense1st]

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