Scott Lauermann

Cape Cod native. Policy communications & rapid response @APIenergy.
Energy markets | policy | geopolitics. Views my own.

[Mason Hamilton🛢📊⛽️ @T_Mason_H]

An increasingly common question I get is “When will we run out of inventory?”

The answer is never…

The flaw in this question is that it treats consumption as fixed and prices as irrelevant.

Basic economic logic says that as inventories go lower, prices go higher.

Higher prices in turn lead to less consumption, which means inventories last longer.

This is one of the major reasons why using metrics such as “days of supply” for inventory is very misleading.

We get weekly inventory data in the U.S. and few limited spots across the globe, but we get prices for crude oil and petroleum products on a daily basis.

Prices – especially severe backwardation, when prices for supply now are greater than prices for supply later - are a signal for the need for supply and strain on inventory levels.

So don’t look only at inventory levels – study the signals prices are sending

[American Petroleum Institute @APIenergy]

America is ready to build, but federal permitting can’t keep up. Now is the time for Congress to pass comprehensive bipartisan permitting reform.

[Mason Hamilton🛢📊⛽️ @T_Mason_H]

Flows of oil through the Hormuz do not need to return to pre-conflict levels - IF the alternative routes are still running at max - but current flows are still a long way off.

Since March, loadings at two Middle Eastern ports that bypass Hormuz—Yanbu on Saudi Arabia’s west coast and Fujairah on the United Arab Emirates’ east coast—have more than doubled to ~5.8 mb/d, helping to partially offset flows disrupted through the Strait.

If export volumes through these alternative routes remain at May 2026 levels, crude oil flows through Hormuz only need to return to ~12 mb/d (vs. 15-16 mb/d pre-war) to bring total Middle East exports back near 2025 levels.

[Rory Johnston @Rory_Johnston]

My latest contribution to @TheDispatch Energy:

𝗜𝘀 𝗕𝗶𝗴 𝗢𝗶𝗹 ‘𝗣𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲 𝗚𝗼𝘂𝗴𝗶𝗻𝗴’?

Reduced global refinery capacity, not corporate greed, is keeping pump prices high.

Free to read:
https://t.co/Lyiir85nf0

[Amena Bakr @Amena__Bakr]

Just because stranded cargoes are leaving Hormuz doesn’t mean there is a glut in the market, the fact that stock levels are low and China’s imports also have been lower is all indications that restocking will happen. Overall the average exports for June from Hormuz was around 5.8 million bpd. Don’t fall for the mega glut narrative. #OOTT

[Bloomberg TV @BloombergTV]

Mike Sommers, president of the American Petroleum Institute, says that the nation's Strategic Petroleum Reserve is "in desperate need of upgrading" https://t.co/QlMSFlGI8g

[Mike Sommers @mj_sommers]

https://t.co/ygX7rAVwIJ

[Atlantic Council @AtlanticCouncil]

If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed and gasoline prices increase further, US policymakers might consider banning oil exports.

But instead of lowering prices, it could have the opposite effect, writes @ACGlobalEnergy’s @bencahillenergy:
https://t.co/Q4JYALnr8i

[Scott Lauermann @ScottLauermann]

New research from @BostonFed finds growth in domestic oil production has significantly reduced the impact of energy-price shocks on U.S. inflation and unemployment since the 1970s. https://t.co/R9OCaNJSed

[Scott Lauermann @ScottLauermann]

Some wise words from @DanielYergin

[Wall Street Journal Opinion @WSJopinion]

The turmoil at the Strait of Hormuz has made clear how much has been learned about energy security over the past half century, mitigating what could have been a catastrophic energy shock, writes @DanielYergin
https://t.co/oeObmpbR5t

[Kaes Van't Hof @KVanthof]

@RedWavePress @joerogan give the people that work in this vitally important US based industry a chance to explain

[Mike Sommers @mj_sommers]

The U.S. is better positioned than regions like Europe and Asia because of our strong domestic oil and gas production and world-class refining system. But in a connected global market, no country is fully insulated from disruption.

[American Petroleum Institute @APIenergy]

There’s a lot of noise out there as Congress takes up E15 legislation. Here are the facts.

[First Squawk @FirstSquawk]

HASSETT SAYS DOING EVERYTHING TO REDUCE SHORT-TERM OIL SHOCK

[EIA @EIAgov]

Europe and Asia LNG prices are up, and U.S. LNG prices are down for week ending April 24. https://t.co/lVHINdXm8l

🔷 Title Transfer Facility, Europe ⬆️35%
🔷 Japan-Korea Marker, Asia ⬆️51%
🔷 Henry Hub, United States ⬇️9%

The Strait of Hormuz closure on February 28 has affected about 20% of global #LNG trade. #TodayInEnergy

[Scott Lauermann @ScottLauermann]

There’s a bipartisan fix on the table with an amendment to the Farm Bill introduced by @RepFischbach that would:

- Allow year-round E15 to expand fuel supply and lower-cost options
- Reform exemptions to target true small refiners
- Create clear, predictable rules instead of after-the-fact cost shifts

At a time of high energy prices, it’s a practical step to improve affordability and stability.

[Scott Lauermann @ScottLauermann]

Here’s something most people don’t know:

Small Refinery Exemptions (SREs) under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) quietly create a financial incentive for refiners to limit production and delay expansion.

That’s not politics. It’s how the law is written. 🧵

[Scott Lauermann @ScottLauermann]

To qualify as “small,” a refinery has to stay under ~75,000 barrels/day.

Go above that and you can’t even apply for the exemption.

So if you’re near the line, making more fuel can blow up your costs—creating a strong financial incentive to cap output and delay investment.