Sean

Personal views on politics, property and economics, with the occasional sports and Hearts FC posts.

[Sean @SeanMX_]

.@easyJet every time I get the 19.05 flight from Gatwick to Edinburgh the flight is delayed over an hour, regardless of which day it is…. Why?

[Sean @SeanMX_]

Inspiring bunch

[Politics UK @PolitlcsUK]

🚨 NEW: Andy Burnham's official Cabinet photo

[Sean @SeanMX_]

@sus176

[Sean @SeanMX_]

What can we tax next???

Wealth tax
Mansion tax
Exit tax
Garden tax
Driveway tax
Spare bedroom tax
Working from home tax
Pension pot tax
Having anything left at the end of the month tax ✅

Any other ideas??

[GB Politics @GBPolitcs]

🚨NEW: Chancellor John Healey warns of a "tough budget" next month

[Sean @SeanMX_]

@bet365 @OptaJoe Jason Kerr made 2 fouls in Edinburgh derby tonight, you have it as one. Get it sorted and get the bet paid.

[Sean @SeanMX_]

@bet365help @CalumMcArthur @bet365 100% a winner. Get it paid out

[Sean @SeanMX_]

@steven_hendo07 @JamboReido 100% landed but 365 settled as a loser

[Sean @SeanMX_]

@duncanrobinson Bigger job lined up???

[Heart of Midlothian FC @JamTarts]

✈️ Our Official Holiday Partner, @loveholidays are giving Jambos a discounted rate on European travel 🙌

£50 off travel for European Conference League fixtures - No minimum spend

Code: HEARTSEUROPE

Valid until 23:59 on Sunday 30 August

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[Anglo Futurism Capital LP 🇬🇧🐿️ @RollingHedge]

Aside from the high crime and low trust society that we have, undeniably, imported from the global south; and the Scandinavian levels of tax we pay for often third world level services - the best and most crushing argument he makes here is in microcosm…

The daily small exchanges. The national meta energy. The resigned feeling that the state is imposing all of this on the productive and contributing citizens to fund foreign (and domestic) indolents is palpable. At scale this is how a country dies. People give up. The perverse incentives structure we have - where anxiety gets you a free car, performative disability gets you all sorts of benefits, where social housing, from zone 1 London to some backwater in Staffordshire, is seemingly prioritised for low income or totally indolent foreigners over our own people. And countless more examples that my TL is littered with daily.

This all bakes in that national meta energy he references at scale. It’s a Gordian knot of bureaucratically designed shit policy by inadequate stupid people with delusions of intelligence and virtuous intent that takes takes takes and contributes nothing of value ad infinitum. And those (per capita) funding it all - like me - are now increasingly aware that this social contract is in tatters and nothing waiting in the wings looks likely to resolve this as PLU reach our peak earnings years. You can entirely understand Frederick’s impulse to leave.

Consider:
•Top 10%: ~£165bn, ~£45k each
•Top 1%: ~£75bn, ~£200k each
•Top 0.1%: ~£30bn, ~£800k each

If they leave:
•1,000 of the 0.1%: ~£800m
•5,000 of the 0.1%: ~£4bn
•10% of the top 1% (37,000 people): ~£7.5bn, more than 1p on the basic rate

Add 15-20% for the VAT and duty they take with them, plus corporation tax and payroll if they own a business.

The killer stat: HMRC’s own ready reckoner puts 1p on the additional rate at £145m. One penny on the basic rate raises £6,900m. They’ve already admitted in print that the top is tapped out.

Without radical course change this leads to civil unrest, and worse. Who wants to be around for that? The cities will become no go areas. The suburbs will be congested and contested by those earning enough to get out from the urban centres. The semi rural will get worse and the fully rural will be the most desirable. But all will be worse.

I’m already noticing there are more people milling around - even in my corner of Surrey who don’t appear to be providing any genuine economic value to the country. In all honesty, we moved out of London to be further from these people for the same reasons Frederick cites (I had noticed the palpable sense of unsafeness in zone 2 smart area of London and didn’t want to spend my high stress enough 12+ hour day in the office worrying about my beautiful wife and infant child) and closer to our respective families and to the England we had grown up in.

The entire UK property market is predicated on:

Property Value = (Square footage × character x location) + Distance from poor people and minorities

This explains the relative premium of and safety / low crime rates within the Home Counties. At least, historically. If that changes - and it is - then eventually we will have rural South Africa/Brazil styled housing compounds at best and massive capital flight at worst. And who will pick up the ever growing bill then? Even the IMF may not want to bail that out. I’m not joking when I say if we aren’t careful we will go the way of Venezuela or Rhodesia.

I love my country deeply but recognise it’s stupid to stay here. And even more so because I’ve seen this coming for ages and yet am still here (family reasons primarily). If I was at work making an emotion-free logical decision then I’d have sold out of this position already and reallocated to something with a higher RoC, if not shorted it entirely. Frederick has made a version of the same calc and is merely responding to incentive. At scale this is a huge problem.

[Sean @SeanMX_]

Flogging a dead horse. Top Gear was never the same after Jeremy, Richard & James.

[BBC News (UK) @BBCNews]

Top Gear to return after Flintoff crash, BBC confirms https://t.co/DbOvz1vive

[Sean @SeanMX_]

What a night. What a result.

[Heart of Midlothian FC @JamTarts]

🗣 Wouter Vrancken speaks to Hearts TV following tonight's memorable result in Vienna...

[Sean @SeanMX_]

@ItsJamesHall It’s only going one way. Tax 📈

[Sean @SeanMX_]

@gurgavin Canadians?? It was the Brits

[Sean @SeanMX_]

Who is this going to be?

[Polymarket @Polymarket]

BREAKING: U.S. Treasury Sec. Bessent reveals a “major financial institution” is expected to be sanctioned this week over Iran.

[Sean @SeanMX_]

@DuncanLamont2 06.20 BA flight from Edinburgh to City would have had you here 07.30 too.

At least you would have had very reliable LNER WiFi.

[Sean @SeanMX_]

@ZackPolanski Zach can’t even locate the correct buildings for their offices.

Also, any pro-growth economic policies?

[Sean @SeanMX_]

@alexanderrX_ Definitely happens in the wider job market. For grads specifically though, I think they’d rather leave a seat empty than hire someone below the bar - which, to your point, is probably being influenced by AI alongside the low cost of offshoring a lot of the “grunt work” processes.

[Sean @SeanMX_]

@ZackPolanski Giving politicians more influence over what gets published is fairly adventurous definition of a free press.