The Pivot

fundamental + technical macro thoughts (thoughts are my own and not recommendations)

[The Pivot @SeeThePivot]

@EconguyRosie Rosie bearish on US economy - a tale as old as time (or as old as him!)

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@SantiagoAuFund But a “milkshake theory” to explain a market you have very little experience in is cool?

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@Convertbond

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@darioperkins @AnnaEconomist 👏

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@mark_dow Well said

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@NickTimiraos I think you mean “lowlights”

[The Pivot @SeeThePivot]

@mark_dow They actually do but will not even come close to delivering it. For example, higher rates will crush the AI trade thru financing issues.

[The Pivot @SeeThePivot]

Don’t recall a more ridiculous press conf than that in my career. Utter BS for 45 mins + now lying about productivity. Tells me either he became political or was always a hawk in sheep’s clothing. Either way, mkt reaction fair - metals trade should base here as fed lost cred

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@LukeGromen @News_Bored Sounds inflationary for the US as they add a middleman to their supply chains.

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@joni_askola One of the most boring podcasters. No idea how he got so big so not surprised he has faded.

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@LukeGromen Thinking more GH Bushian “mission accomplished”

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@macrokurd So a NATO exit should mean higher term premium and weaker $ as US loses a major pillar of hegemony?

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@TechCharts Beautiful inverse H&S

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@darioperkins To be fair, he is one of the most hawkish members so to be expected but your comment did make me lol. So true!

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@michaeljmcnair ***taking the GSEs public

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@michaeljmcnair Fed’s mandate does not include the mortgage rate so Bessent is technically wrong. I also don’t think taking the GSEs are going to help reduce the mortgage rate.

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@MacroVoices @ErikSTownsend @PatrickCeresna @DrPippaM What a waste of time. Clearly Pippa is either a spokesperson or pandering to the current admin. Hey Pippa…ya know Marco Rubio is on record for saying Russia was involved in the 2016 election, right?? @DrPippaM And then celebrating the release of old files, no Epstein though?!

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@Reuters So the whole idea that if more people carry guns, that would stop mass shootings is wrong then… 🤔

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@RyanMiller_TE @JeffSnider_AIP Enjoy your dollar milkshake sir 🙄

[The Pivot @SeeThePivot]

@RyanMiller_TE @JeffSnider_AIP So now FX is only about cash? Nothing to do with relative movements and what’s happening in Europe broski? One doesn’t have to think there is a ton of cash in the world and the dollar goes down. It’s just foolish to think there is a shortage.