Anchorage Man

NBA Data Science Manager @theScore/PENN. Author: “The Midrange Theory” Prev: Dir of N. American Sports @statsbomb Dir of Bball Research @bucks & @TheAthleticNBA

[Anchorage Man @SethPartnow]

If any literary agents follow me #onhere, my wife has completed her 1st novel entitled “The Last Prom on Earth” and is trying to find representation to help get it published https://t.co/TvEMf9PDwI

Anyone who ISN’T an agent or publisher but might know some, please signal boost!

[Anchorage Man @SethPartnow]

@MoDakhil_NBA @SportsStatsFan lol dude blocked me. SportsStatsFan is evidently not a fan of actual spots stats.

[Anchorage Man @SethPartnow]

@SportsStatsFan @MoDakhil_NBA No, the shots now are harder on average because they are move covered because they’re all off the dribble contested.

[Anchorage Man @SethPartnow]

The bulk of assists awarded on “non potential assists” are this type of thing. Second dribble on a transition play is similar. From what I’ve seen, it’s reasonably consistent and there is virtually no home-road bias

[Anchorage Man @SethPartnow]

Give or take 15-20% of assists awarded don’t show up as potential assists, and this is a perfect example case. Potential assists are restricted to <2.5 secs of possession and <2 dribbles. The second dribble kills the potential assist on both plays.

[McCade Pearson @McCadeP8]

@SethPartnow Here is a video of Thomas Bryant not getting a potential assist while the video next to it is Gobert getting an assist, but these are the exact same plays!!

[Anchorage Man @SethPartnow]

@GarrettBugay You’re looking in the wrong places, especially looking here rather than bsky if you want an actual discussion instead of just yelling at someone for saying your favorite team didn’t do everything perfectly. Bye now.

[Anchorage Man @SethPartnow]

“Just as good” despite Ant and McDaniels taking significant steps forward suggests to me they would have been better this year sans trade

[Garrett Bugay @GarrettBugay]

Would be curious to hear @SethPartnow take on Minnesota’s season now after his criticism of KAT trade.

After the turn of the year, once DDV & Randle had become acclimated, the 24-25 Wolves were just as good as the 23-24 version.

They advanced just as far in the playoffs.

1/2

[Anchorage Man @SethPartnow]

@NoTechBen Three dudes standing under the basket at all times and the restricted area becoming a mosh pit. Variety!

It’s moronic and I’m disappointed in you.

[Anchorage Man @SethPartnow]

Break twitter silence to opine that if this was implemented, it would be a morbid race to the bottom as to whether NBA offense or the newly-tariffed US economy would tank faster. It’s Laffer Curve bad analysis to even suggest it.

[Kirk Goldsberry @kirkgoldsberry]

It's time to act. 1 in 9 shots are now corner 3s.

[Anchorage Man @SethPartnow]

@GabeLeftBrain @sradjoker @dlee4three This is good stuff Gabe. You should post it on Bluesky so we can talk about it more ;)

[Anchorage Man @SethPartnow]

@GabeLeftBrain @sradjoker @dlee4three I think I basically just estimate league total salary as 2/3 of the way to the luxury tax line above the soft cap *30 and divide by 1230 wins

[Anchorage Man @SethPartnow]

@HPbasketball I can’t really think of a principled way to argue that 27.0 USG/64.8 TS is decidedly better or worse than 33.2 USG/63.3 USG. Even postionality cuts both ways. It’s easier for a guard to have high usage but easier for a C to have high TS.

[Anchorage Man @SethPartnow]

@HPbasketball Everyone is just making shit up at this point. At least we don’t have the Embiid propaganda wing at work this time, but nobody has elucidated any clear standards for why it should or should not matter.

[Anchorage Man @SethPartnow]

@ed_vergani @OdedRaz6 FWIW, I use a different baseline which is closer to (FGA * .7 - FGM)/2 and then there’s a bunch of little adjustments after that.

[Anchorage Man @SethPartnow]

@HPbasketball Amother way of putting it is that a number of the peripheral Cavs happened to be playing way over their heads to start the year and that was never likely to continue

[Anchorage Man @SethPartnow]

Don’t play games close enough for one call to matter. Problem fixed.

[Mark Followill @MFollowill]

Before turning the page on Wednesday, I've obviously been thinking a lot about it. The league has to find a remedy for situations like that. I absolutely understand the difficulty of going back and correcting non-calls but at a minimum the goaltending thing has to be fixed.

There's already Hawkeye technology in place to assess goaltending objectively...so the league has to move to a system where whether it's called or not on the floor you can retroactively fix it...just as they do 2pters & 3pters. Or as was done in the OKC vs CLE game last night when a Max Strus shot was taken off the scoreboard because replay saw he stepped out of bounds.

In an avg NBA game there are approx 10 blocked shots and about 0.6 defensive/offensive goaltending violations. There's no reason those plays can't be checked behind the scenes in the replay center with the use of Hawkeye and a replay center scoring changed can be initiated in the rare instances it's appropriate. That can be easily implemented in the first 46 mins. I accept there will be challenges on how to do it in the last two mins but figure it out. There's too much at stake for too many stakeholders to just throw your hands up in the air and say there's nothing we can do.

On to the next and we (everyone on the MavsTV broadcast) appreciate the support and interest from all MFFLs! See y'all tonight. 👊

[Anchorage Man @SethPartnow]

@CharlieSokaitis You obviously know the comp structure for TV better than me, but that 15% has EASILY paid for itself in terms of structure of advances and royalties.

[Anchorage Man @SethPartnow]

@knarsu3 @birdrightsnba @SravanNBA @HPbasketball @StoolGreenie Essentially if you go by the VERBAL nba dot com definitions, about 85% of threes attempted are open. Does that feel like an accurate description?

Note that the issue is with the labeling rather than the data itself. On attempts closer to the rim, the labels work much better.

[Anchorage Man @SethPartnow]

@SkoolboyLu the part of that chapter that I didn’t know how to fully articulate until, ironically, I left the front office is balancing “salary efficiency” with roster spot & minutes efficiency because aside from true max guys, each tends to be best served by a different category of player.