Sharp Football Analysis

NFL analytics, betting insights, fantasy football analysis, game picks & props using advanced predictive models & data from Warren Sharp l betting on @novig

[Sharp Football Analysis @SharpFBAnalysis]

Kirk Cousins with play action: #2 in EPA per attempt, 7 TD to 1 INT

Without it: 23rd, 3 TD to 6 INT

Now he gets the defense that disguises coverage more than anyone

Week 10 Matchup Show: Vikings-Packers, 49ers-Cowboys, Steelers-Bengals + more

👉 https://t.co/3f0zYwgMQ7

[Sharp Football Analysis @SharpFBAnalysis]

Week 10 referee assignments and penalty trends:
https://t.co/Oji6hGIIXn

[Sharp Football Analysis @SharpFBAnalysis]

Every crew calls the game differently.

Week 10 referee assignments are in for all 14 games.

Shawn Hochuli has Chiefs-Falcons. Bill Vinovich has 49ers-Cowboys.

Which crew are you watching?

[Sharp Football Analysis @SharpFBAnalysis]

Ryan McCrystal's full USC vs Indiana breakdown:
https://t.co/Ayq5iUk23L

[Sharp Football Analysis @SharpFBAnalysis]

Indiana allows the 4th-fewest yards before contact in college football, based on opponent-adjusted data.

Wisconsin's numbers are similar. USC backs ran 20 times for 39 yards against the Badgers.

Can USC run the ball at all Saturday?

[Sharp Football Analysis @SharpFBAnalysis]

Warren and Rich's Week 10 Matchups show:
https://t.co/3f0zYwgMQ7

[Sharp Football Analysis @SharpFBAnalysis]

The Cardinals average a league-low 1.33 points per drive at home.

They have faced seven teams with a winning record, the most in the league.

The Rams allow a 31.6% third-down rate, 4th.

Does Arizona find the end zone?

https://t.co/m4clGle3NK

[Sharp Football Analysis @SharpFBAnalysis]

Warren and Rich's Week 10 Matchups show:
https://t.co/3f0zYwgMQ7

[Sharp Football Analysis @SharpFBAnalysis]

The Saints are 15 for 15 scoring touchdowns on goal-to-go possessions.

They also lead the league in fourth-down conversions (12).

Carolina allows 2.33 points per drive, 27th.

Does New Orleans stay perfect?

https://t.co/HwRKVeL6dC

[Sharp Football Analysis @SharpFBAnalysis]

Warren and Rich's Week 10 Matchups show:
https://t.co/3f0zYwgMQ7

[Sharp Football Analysis @SharpFBAnalysis]

Cleveland quarterbacks are sacked on a league-worst 13.4% of dropbacks.

Houston's defense has a 10.5% sack rate, 2nd in the league.

How many times does Cleveland's QB go down?

https://t.co/rFDAtgO0hn

[Sharp Football Analysis @SharpFBAnalysis]

Warren and Rich's Week 10 Matchups show:
https://t.co/3f0zYwgMQ7

[Sharp Football Analysis @SharpFBAnalysis]

Miami has led in two games all season. Every other team has led in five or more.

The Colts are last in the NFL in passing EPA (-61.4).

Somebody has to win this one. Who?

https://t.co/1FjE1ADaM0

[Sharp Football Analysis @SharpFBAnalysis]

Warren and Rich's Week 10 Matchups show:
https://t.co/3f0zYwgMQ7

[Sharp Football Analysis @SharpFBAnalysis]

Atlanta has scored on 14.3% of its drives over the past two weeks, the lowest rate in the league.

The Chiefs lead the NFL in rushing EPA and in touchdown drives of four plays or fewer (8).

Can the Falcons keep up?

https://t.co/iXud2dtNha

[Sharp Football Analysis @SharpFBAnalysis]

Warren and Rich's Week 10 Matchups show:
https://t.co/3f0zYwgMQ7

[Sharp Football Analysis @SharpFBAnalysis]

The Chargers are 0-7-1 against the spread, the only team without a cover.

They average a league-low 1.27 points per drive and rank last in offensive EPA.

Does the streak end in Baltimore?

https://t.co/H6OxGRzHXq

[Sharp Football Analysis @SharpFBAnalysis]

Warren and Rich's Week 10 Matchups show:
https://t.co/3f0zYwgMQ7

[Sharp Football Analysis @SharpFBAnalysis]

The Bengals convert a league-best 53.6% of third downs, and 39.5% of their third-and-longs. League average on those: 24.3%.

Cincinnati has averaged a league-high 3.08 points per drive over its last six games.

Can Pittsburgh get them off the field?

https://t.co/ft0rTidjQu

[Sharp Football Analysis @SharpFBAnalysis]

Warren and Rich's Week 10 Matchups show:
https://t.co/3f0zYwgMQ7

[Sharp Football Analysis @SharpFBAnalysis]

The Titans have been outscored 86-3 in the second quarter this season.

Jacksonville has outscored opponents 127-43 in the first half, the best margin in the league.

Is this one over by halftime?

https://t.co/EC0Ujey6Er

[Sharp Football Analysis @SharpFBAnalysis]

Warren and Rich's Week 10 Matchups show:
https://t.co/3f0zYwgMQ7

[Sharp Football Analysis @SharpFBAnalysis]

San Francisco leads the NFL in offensive EPA and averages a league-high 37.0 yards per possession.

Dallas allows a league-high 35.2 yards per opponent possession and ranks 31st in defensive EPA.

How many does San Francisco put up?

https://t.co/ggQf2Aw0DI

[Sharp Football Analysis @SharpFBAnalysis]

Warren and Rich's Week 10 Matchups show:
https://t.co/3f0zYwgMQ7

[Sharp Football Analysis @SharpFBAnalysis]

Las Vegas has allowed a league-high 3.29 points per drive over its last six games

Next closest: 2.51

Seattle allows a league-low 22.6 yards per possession

That's the welcome party for Fernando Mendoza

How does his debut go?

https://t.co/2o78h6Zsuq

[Sharp Football Analysis @SharpFBAnalysis]

Ryan McCrystal's full Texas vs LSU breakdown:
https://t.co/9Z6NwCn3Yf

[Sharp Football Analysis @SharpFBAnalysis]

LSU hits running backs at or behind the line of scrimmage on 57% of carries, the highest rate in the nation.

Texas backs get stuffed for zero or negative yards 49.5% of the time after early contact, 126th.

Can Texas run the ball Saturday night?