Shaunak S. Mali

[Shaunak S. Mali @ShaunakMali]

**Reply 4/4**
3. Internal stresses (debt, inequality) are serious but not deterministic triggers for external war or collapse. Democracies adapt via elections and policy; the U.S.'s reserve currency privilege provides unique flexibility absent in 1930s rigid systems.

The order isn't dead. It's evolving under pressure, as it always has. Incentives for cooperation remain strong due to mutual vulnerabilities no prior era faced. Curious for your thoughts!

[Shaunak S. Mali @ShaunakMali]

**Reply 3/4**
2. Historical cycles are patterns, not iron laws. Unique modern factors break the 1930s analogy:
1. Nuclear weapons make direct great-power war existential, not just costly.
2. Economic interdependence (trillions in intertwined trade/supply chains) creates self-harm risks far higher than pre-1945.
3. Instant global information raises reputational costs of aggression.

Past imperial transitions (e.g., British to American handover) avoided catastrophe partly due to similar aligning factors.

[Shaunak S. Mali @ShaunakMali]

**Reply 2/4**
1. The international order has always been a hybrid of rules plus power, not a pure rules era that can suddenly "die." Rules are tools states use when cooperation pays off (game theory: mutual deterrence and iterated gains). Institutions like WTO, NATO, and UN still function daily. Trade, alliances, and sanctions rely on shared norms. Munich 2026 warnings seem more like calls to reinforce the order than eulogies.

[Shaunak S. Mali @ShaunakMali]

**Reply 1/4**
@RayDalio Thank you for this thoughtful and data-rich piece. Your Big Cycle framework is always provocative and helpful for understanding long-term patterns. I agree we're seeing real strains in the post-1945 order and echoes of the 1930s in debt, inequality, and great-power rivalry.

But respectfully, I think declaring the rules-based order "officially dead" and entering an irreversible Stage 6 might overstate the case. A few first-principles thoughts:

[Shaunak S. Mali @ShaunakMali]

Crypto Investment Trends 2020 #blockchain @binance @coinbase @BankToTheFuture

[Shaunak S. Mali @ShaunakMali]

@APompliano #Blockchain game is strong #Oppenheimer

[Josh KΞrnan @JoshKernan]

Super impressed with ⁦@pensionsnews⁩ Special Report on Cryptocurrency.
Spoiler: Institutions are loading up in a big way.

[Tyler Winklevoss @tyler]

Cryptocurrency is the first money in the world that is governed entirely by math and not the legal-regulatory apparatus of high priests. This alone should give you pause.

[Anthony Pompliano 🌪 @APompliano]

Bitcoin is the most secure computing network in the world.

Today the market values that at $200 billion.

Hard to imagine it won't be worth more in the future...

[Hub @hubtoken]

Eric Ly, Hub CEO chats with Brendan Eich! (creator of Javascript and CEO of Brave Software) https://t.co/NkLYbpv2k0

#blockchain #ethereum #tokens #crypto #Dapp #BAT #brave #hub #javascript #bravebrowser

[Shaunak S. Mali @ShaunakMali]

Incredible to see the rapid rate at which #blockhain is expanding!

[Shaunak S. Mali @ShaunakMali]

A great post by @vishalkarir on scarcity #bitcoin #gold #Blockchain
https://t.co/XiaUshwcbm

[Matt Moravec @mjmoravec]

$LEO one of the best plays for the next 90 days - 1 year. Great entry point right now too.

[Yossi Hasson @yossihasson]

I opened a new US bank account. In the 6 days that it took for my wire to transfer from my other US account to my new account.. my new account was debited $25.95 for being under the min bal to not be charged a fee... & another $34.00 "overdraft" fee. And yet crypto is THE scam?

[Shaunak S. Mali @ShaunakMali]

😊

[Naval @naval]

The closer you are to the truth, the more silent you become inside.

[Tyler Winklevoss @tyler]

Our most precious asset is our time. You can't touch it. You can't touch bitcoin either. That's a feature not a bug.

[Matt Moravec @mjmoravec]

Waiting for @VitalikButerin to accept @Google offer to help build out ETH 2.0 by sponsoring developers to compete with Libra.

[Shaunak S. Mali @ShaunakMali]

With @facebook launching $libra - the total addressable network of users for crypto just increased today by 2 Billion users 🙂 #blockchain

[David Hoffman @TrustlessState]

Libra is being bootstrapped by a private security token; validators purchase to participate in the network. The funds are the pool that backs Libra

This token is the equity of the network, the funds are the assets, and Libre is the debt

Facebook has spawned a new Central Bank

[Shaunak S. Mali @ShaunakMali]

$libra

https://t.co/9WwppGvH0K

[Cameron Winklevoss @cameron]

Prediction: ever FAANG company will have its own coin within 24 months.