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[Smashelito @smashelito]

$ES Daily Plan | June 15

As discussed in the Weekly Plan, the market saw a Look Below and Fail of the multi-week balance area last week after a 5% correction off the ATH.

The key question is whether buyers can capitalize on last week’s failed breakdown and revisit the all-time highs, or whether sellers can establish a lower high.

Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7515 (UT1), while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7461 (DT1).

I have switched to the ESU26 contract.

Smashlevel: 7481

[Smashelito @smashelito]

$ES | $SPX Weekly Plan | June 15-19

🟩 Daily: OTFU
🟥 Weekly: OTFD
🟩 Monthly: OTFU

Starting Monday, I will transition to the ESU26 (September) contract. For reference, I do not back-adjust my charts. On the chart, I’ve marked Friday’s settlements for both ESM26 (June) at 7435 and ESU26 (September) at 7497.50, reflecting a +62.50 point difference (roll gap).

The key this shortened week is to stay nimble, as Options and VIX expirations, the FOMC meeting, and contract rollover are all on deck, conditions that typically make order flow less reliable. From an auction perspective, the market saw a Look Below and Fail of the multi-week balance area last week after a 5% correction off the ATH.

The question now is whether buyers can capitalize on sellers’ inability to follow through and rotate back toward the unfinished business at the all-time highs, the opposite side of balance, or whether sellers can instead establish a lower high.

[SigCharts @SigCharts]

Your worst trades aren't random. They have a pattern. You just haven't looked closely enough to see it yet.

[Smashelito @smashelito]

$ES Daily Plan | June 12

Today’s session was marked by rotational activity early on, with buyers rejecting an inside-day breakdown after defending the key 7275 level multiple times. This resulted in a retest of Wednesday’s high, following a news-driven short-covering rally.

The key in the short term will be to monitor whether this bounce offers another opportunity for sellers to step in, or whether buyers can shift the tone with follow-through after closing back within the prior multi-week balance area.

Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7415 (UT1), Tuesday’s Initial Balance Low, while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7354 (DT1), the prior 4-week balance low.

Smashlevel: 7380

[SemiAnalysis @SemiAnalysis_]

Recently, we purchased one of each Anthropic/OpenAI subscription plan and randomly ran long horizon coding tasks until we exhausted the weekly limit. It's widely believed that a $200/month plan maxes out at ~$2000/month worth of tokens (assuming API pricing). However, we found that the subscriptions are actually far more generous. (2/4)

[SigCharts @SigCharts]

Better indicators won't fix a discipline problem.

Better entries won't fix an emotional one.

The leak is usually you.

[Smashelito @smashelito]

$ES Daily Plan | June 11

Sellers are currently controlling the auction in the short-term, with both the daily and weekly timeframes in one-time framing down. Continued downside pressure is expected as long as buyers are unable to reclaim the prior 4-week balance low at 7354. Note that last month’s VAL at 7337 is another key reference buyers need to reclaim

Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7300 (UT1), while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7250 (DT1), the 5% correction level off ATH. PPI on deck tomorrow.

Smashlevel: 7275

[Luke Cannon @lukecannon727]

The cashier at Home Depot just asked me if I wanted to round up to support the SpaceX IPO

[SigCharts @SigCharts]

@edgeful IB

[SigCharts @SigCharts]

Few.

[SigCharts @SigCharts]

Traded micro ES today instead of the usual NQ. When volatility is this high and we are moving this fast having the ability to average into a position comfortably, deleverage, and maintain wider stops is key.

[Smashelito @smashelito]

$ES Daily Plan | June 10

An early failed inside-day breakout led to a highly emotional session today. In the process, the auction filled the gap at 7299.75 and completed a 5% correction off the all-time high (7250).

Notably, the session closed back above both the 4-week balance low (7354) and last week’s low (7380), levels that buyers now need to defend, opening the door for a clean-up of today’s structure and a potential traverse of the large distribution. Failure to do so would keep downside pressure in play.

Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7415 (UT1), today’s Initial Balance Low, while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7354 (DT1), the 4-week balance low. CPI on deck tomorrow.

Smashlevel: 7380

[SigCharts @SigCharts]

Impulsive trades don't just lose money. They cloud your read on every trade that follows.

Cut them out entirely.

[Smashelito @smashelito]

#ES_F Daily Plan | June 9

The lack of initiating activity overnight at 7354, the 4-week balance low, attracted responsive buyers today. Friday’s poor structure was partially filled in the process, with sellers stepping in at Friday’s afternoon rally high at 7478, the final target for today.

The session closed within Friday’s lower distribution, a weak close relative to where the auction spent most of its time today, making it crucial to monitor for continuation or lack thereof.

Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7429 (UT1), today’s Initial balance Low, while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7354 (DT1), the 4-week balance low.

Smashlevel: 7395

[SigCharts @SigCharts]

The goal was never perfection.

It's building enough self-awareness to make slightly better decisions, slightly more often, for long enough that it actually compounds into something.

[Merritt Black @merrittblack]

many would benefit by using checklists to help make decisions.

i used to keep them in front of me constantly. how to prep a market, whether to allow a scale out, to allow an entry, to allow a scratch, a core exit, etc.

i used checklists derived from process.

they are indeed training wheels - if one needs them.

if you are making xyz mistake, often times 'being process driven' is a fix, and often times a checklist is a very direct controllable way to be process driven for a particular action.

[Smashelito @smashelito]

#ES_F Daily Plan | June 8

Friday’s emotional session formed a multi-distribution trend day, with four sets of single prints, ending the weekly one-time framing up in the process.

Eyes are on the composite volume profile and how Friday’s after-hours weakness approached the lower end of a large distribution formed during the prior weekly balance. The key question is whether initiating sellers can follow through or if some responsive activity is on deck first.

Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7420 (UT1), while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7354 (DT1), the 4-week balance low.

Smashlevel: 7395

[SigCharts @SigCharts]

@smashelito Great breakdown as always @smashelito 🙏

[Smashelito @smashelito]

$ES | $SPX Weekly Plan | June 8-12

🟥 Daily: OTFD
🟨 Weekly: BALANCE
🟩 Monthly: OTFU

The key question this week is whether sellers can sustain downside momentum following Friday’s multi-distribution trend day down, which brought an end to the weekly one-time framing up.

Failure to defend the 2-week balance breakout triggered a rotation back toward the 7420 HVN, where multiple weekly VPOCs are stacked, and a full traversal of the balance area. How the auction behaves around the prior 2-week balance low at 7354, now marking the 4-week balance low, early this week will be key in gauging directional intent.

Value building above 7354, while rejecting any immediate downside continuation, would set the stage for a clean-up of Friday’s poor structure toward 7449 and 7515, potential reload areas for sellers. Failure to do so would open the door to filling the gap at 7299.75, where a gap-fill reversal is of interest.

[Smashelito @smashelito]

$ES

Buyers stepped in and defended the critical high volume node (HVN) yesterday, triggering a notable reversal.

As discussed all week, a shift in tone required a break of this HVN, an outcome that ultimately played out today.

The auction not only reached the expected downside magnet at 7420, but after hours also fully traversed the prior 2-week balance area, a common target following a failed balance breakout.

Have a great weekend!