Silver Surfer

CFA, I am not providing financial advice, mostly a commodity trader and certain equity tickers with good fundamentals and good valuation

[Silver Surfer @SilverSurfer_11]

well said

[Silver Surfer @SilverSurfer_11]

big money sniffed out the problem and dumped bonds or the risk manager tapped bond traders on the shoulder.

[Roger @rdd147]

@Dr_Crossroads Now you’re getting it 😆 250 bp in 2 days on no news is the top question for $CRWV

It’s not normal for any corporation in the BB range outside of a credit event. Unlikely to be anything to lead to immediate default, but something concerning

[Silver Surfer @SilverSurfer_11]

smoking hot PPI inflation
I am seeing 20% increases the last month in some items I purchase.... those charge for deisel prices I guess

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Inflation is RED hot in the US.

For anyone not keeping track, US CPI inflation is now nearly double the Fed's 2% target and US PPI Inflation is more than triple that target.

PPI inflation was expected to fall in August, but instead it surged to 6.3%, its second highest level in 4 years.

And, month-over-month Headline PPI inflation surged +1.3%, more than doubling the +0.6% expected and the second largest jump since March 2021.

Meanwhile, month-over-month Core PPI inflation came in +133% above expectations.

The prices Americans are seeing now will look cheap in 12 to 24 months.

All you can do is own assets.

[Silver Surfer @SilverSurfer_11]

waiting for $nvda to show the negative sales and margin decline,

[Nobody Special @JG_Nuke]

Coreweave $CRWV has only ever been a special purpose vehicle created to inflate $NVDA revenue. Turning a profit or even surviving was never the goal.

[Silver Surfer @SilverSurfer_11]

I have been shorting $crwv and taking profits and reshorting for months. dogpile of a company, I wont be shorting it under 30 though, IPO price range can be manipulated for a bit

[Roger @rdd147]

I’m being told the 230 bp selloff in $CRWV bonds may be linked to an amendment to CoreWeave delayed-draw term loans that supported the company accessing cash for $NVDA GPUs to support projects.

The most likely event would be a customer defaulting on their contract and the lender pulling or changing the terms of the lending vehicle due to significant credit risk. This wouldn’t be a significant credit hit against CoreWeave, but could trigger a selloff on fear of demand if smaller companies fail.

This is not a guarantee. I’m just told to focus on it as the most likely source. Last night I had posted some DDTL are backed entirely by customers with bad credit like $CRWV so it’s possible; not guaranteed.

[Silver Surfer @SilverSurfer_11]

but wait, every iphone has a better camera and is thinner..... $aapl PE 35+ not justified, waiting on 20 ish again

[Roger @rdd147]

If $AAPL really sees a 20% reduction in iPhone sales, it would be an economic catastrophe for the company. When consumers switch from wanting regular upgrades to realizing and accepting what they have is sufficient, prices and sales irreversibly collapse.

The same thing happened from 2004-2010 as consumers went from needing every great new thing in TVs to realizing that the products weren’t worth the price to make upgrades.

Apple is in a very bad place.

[Silver Surfer @SilverSurfer_11]

cool

[L2WTrades @L2WTrades]

go pull up the 6AM candle on your chart right now

this one candle predicts the entire New York session direction

and almost nobody uses it

a guy in my discord called 14 out of 15 trading days correctly last month using only this

here's the exact system:

THE 6AM REVERSAL SIGNATURE:

at 6AM EST, institutions show their hand

they either:
- push price into a key level (reversal incoming)
- expand away from a level (continuation day)

the 6AM candle tells you WHICH

STEP 1: mark yesterday's high and low

STEP 2: at 6AM, watch where price trades relative to those levels

STEP 3: if 6AM sweeps a level but CLOSES back inside the range = reversal day

STEP 4: if 6AM expands and closes BEYOND the level = trend day

STEP 5: check the correlated asset. this is where it goes from good to undeniable

pull up NQ and ES side by side (or gold and silver, EUR and GBP - whatever you trade)

did BOTH assets sweep the same level at 6AM? or did one sweep while the other didn't?

both swept and closed back inside -> strong reversal signal. both assets agree. trade it with confidence

one swept, the other didn't -> even stronger. that's SMT. a crack in correlation. the asset that swept grabbed liquidity. the one that refused was already telling you the reversal is real before the candle even closed

one swept and the other closed in the OPPOSITE direction -> that's a two-stage SMT. strength switch. the highest probability confirmation you can have at 6AM. the direction isn't just "likely." it's confirmed across two independent assets

no crack at all, both assets just expanding through -> continuation day. don't fight it. only trade in that direction

that's it.

EXAMPLES:

6AM sweeps yesterday's high on NQ, closes back below it. you check ES - ES didn't even reach the high. crack in correlation. bearish day confirmed -> sell the rip at 9:30

6AM sweeps yesterday's low on gold, closes back above it. you check silver - silver swept the same low but closed bearish while gold closed bullish. strength switch. two-stage SMT -> buy the dip at 9:30 with maximum conviction

6AM breaks high and closes above with momentum on both assets -> no crack. continuation. only look for longs

most traders show up at 9:30 with no bias

they're "reacting to price action"

aka gambling

smart traders showed up at 6AM

they checked the candle AND the correlated asset

they already know the direction AND how confident to be in it

the 9:30 open is just their entry window

THIS IS THE EDGE:

institutions set up the move between 6-9:30

retail shows up at 9:30 and provides the exit liquidity

you can either BE the liquidity

or you can TAKE the liquidity

the 6AM candle tells you the direction

the correlated asset tells you if it's real

together they tell you which side you're on before the market even opens

go backtest it. 30 days. both assets side by side. track the results

you'll never trade blind again

(free discord in bio. i teach my full framework there)

[Silver Surfer @SilverSurfer_11]

pure junk bonds

[Ross Hendricks @Ross__Hendricks]

That creaking sound you hear is the the AI financing machinery grinding to a halt

[Silver Surfer @SilverSurfer_11]

$aapl at 10 times sales and 38PE, seems overvalued kinda a no brainer.

[Felix Wang, CFA @HedgeyeTech]

Why is no one saying $AAPL is a bubble? We're Short. Our bear thesis played out in a big way last quarter - we think it will continue as Apple's supercycle bursts.  We wrote about the weak lead times for Apple's iPhone 18 Pro and 18 Pro Max last month.  We're working on two critical data sets: our global inventory checker (iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max) and our social barometer for the iPhone Duo.  We will unveil the results later this month.

[Silver Surfer @SilverSurfer_11]

athene leader came from aig i believe, big boom there for those old enough to remember

[John E. Montana @JohnEMontana]

.@gnoble79, @JG_Nuke & Danny Frank cut through the noise with brutal clarity on the AI bubble’s fragility. Paper trillions still mask the cash starvation, but the disguise is slipping. Every AI player is running the same racket of circular financing, affiliated deals & reinsurance style leverage. Past bank & S&L busts will look tame in the rearview mirror by comparison. The scale is nuclear, consumers are levered to the hilt & private mark-to-myth pricing is killing all market discovery. There will be no gradual warning, just a sudden, violent detonation when the fiction collapses. A desert mirage fades as you approach. The AI fantasy is a mirage of mirages that amazingly continues to hold until it detonates & it will.

[Silver Surfer @SilverSurfer_11]

@traderdrysdale vwap thanks

[Silver Surfer @SilverSurfer_11]

The Holy Spirit

[Mr. Nobody @MmisterNobody]

I am convinced that most of the population is under a spell cast by dark forces, and that only a small number of people can see through the schemes and tactics of the enemy.

Why some are immune to it is something I still do not understand.

[Silver Surfer @SilverSurfer_11]

thanks coconut milk helps the brain imo

[Wellness Dad @WellnessDad_]

Avoid these drinks....

[Silver Surfer @SilverSurfer_11]

I short $crwv on all rallies, its a dog pile.

[Roger @rdd147]

Who you’re going against shorting Ai.
$CRWV $ORCL

[Silver Surfer @SilverSurfer_11]

can it really make it in 3 weeks? seems like a longer trip than that.

[Silver Surfer @SilverSurfer_11]

poison

[Silver Surfer @SilverSurfer_11]

guessing this is a trump lie....
I am getting tired of trump lies.

[Nostra, House of Gold @Nostre_damus]

Putin releasing diesel to Europe before winter

Why would he do that

[Silver Surfer @SilverSurfer_11]

great

[Homely_Style @Homely_Style]

Fix a cabinet door when the hinge screws have stripped the wood. A simple metal reinforcement plate fits over the damaged area, creating a solid new surface to securely re-attach the hinge.

[Silver Surfer @SilverSurfer_11]

$nvda 5.7T pump and dump, who would have thought

[Nic @puckrin]

Nvidia just hit a record $5.7T valuation.

But here’s the question:

Who is actually financing the AI boom?

The hyperscalers are expected to spend ~$795B on capex this year.

Yet AI infrastructure is increasingly being financed through banks, private credit, bond markets and Big Tech guarantees.

Now Nvidia wants its GPUs treated as long-lived collateral that lenders can finance for years.

The problem?

Lenders are underwriting GPUs on a much shorter 3–4 year life.

That creates a critical mismatch:

If the hardware depreciates faster than the debt, who takes the loss?

Nvidia isn’t just selling the picks and shovels anymore.

It’s increasingly sitting inside the financing chain too.

[Silver Surfer @SilverSurfer_11]

looks like largest financial scam ever $nvda, market does not need the billions of chips bought at a 75% margin,

[Roger @rdd147]

$AMZN bought too many $NVDA chips and needs to offload $8 billion worth, lovely.

Many more warehoused than that facing delay. $390 billion here. Some small Neo-clouds on >12 month delays now for grid connection, permits, or struggles to continue financing a build.

344 delayed in total at $600 billion

So many warehoused GPUs that will sit there for 5-7 year backlogs on electrical infrastructure.

So many PE and Neo-Cloud bankruptcies imminent as interest/principle payments are missed.

So much fraud in Moody’s and Fitch for acknowledging the delays in bonds, but not writing them down, knowing the existential threat of these companies unable to get revenue to cover ABS payments.

So much fraud like the mortgage crisis.

$meta $crwv $nbis $orcl $msft $goog