Scott Mlodzinski

Investor | Reader | Musician | Traveler. Invest in and Educate yourself for the greatest returns.

[Scott Mlodzinski @Smlodz]

@Phillies @MaikelFranco7 Can you make the phillies look better thsn the dodgers?

[Scott Mlodzinski @Smlodz]

@Phillies @MaikelFranco7 Can you supply a handfule of phillies beating the dodgers photos

[Scott Mlodzinski @Smlodz]

@KobeissiLetter @DavidSacks @theallinpod would love to hear you guys talk about CRE going into 2024 on one of the pods. Seems to be an interesting setup for next year with an election year, probable rate cuts fueling the stock market. Will these value destruction events weigh in the markets?

[Chamath Palihapitiya @chamath]

Index rebalancing will be a bitch.

Since January, a handful of stocks have dragged up the stock market. These 7 companies represent the largest market cap companies of the Nasdaq100 and S&P500.

The result is a unique phenomenon that has implications for the next move upwards (or downwards).

Sometimes an up market benefits all/most/many companies but this hasn’t been the case thus far this year. If you subtract the returns of the top 7 from the rest of the index, you find that there is a huge spread - upwards of 1000bp.

There are two implications of this:

1. There are strict rules about the composition of the indices. As such, the indices will refactor how important these 7 companies will be in constituting their index.

In fact, the Nasdaq100 just announced they will reduce the top7 from 55.1% to 43.7%. This will result in many funds selling these companies in order to rebalance.

2. Assuming, the market finds a new leg upwards, it stands to reason that the marginal move upwards will benefit the other companies first. Said differently, when combined with (1), you could expect the “spread” between the weighted and unweighted index to close.

More anecdotally, if you break down the returns of the top 7, here is what it seems:

Two companies are actually compounding share, revenues and profits: $NVDA, $TSLA.

One company has moved from spending idiotically to only spending foolishly. All of this FCF is a short term boon for investors: $META.

One company is a predictable, consistent grower at GDP++: $AAPL.

Two companies are a bit murky but schmuck insurance says you are better off owning them vs not as they can show up at any quarter with a lights-out print: $GOOG, $AMZN.

On balance, outside of the first two, there seems to be lots of room for the rest of the index to catch up and close the gap.

Good luck to all the players!

[Scott Mlodzinski @Smlodz]

@chamath @JDRKAIZEN Brilliant man and great breakdown, Chamath. It’s also putting faith in the Japanese economy, cause like you said - he needs to exchange back to USD in the long run. His bet would imply he is forecasting a stable economy and similar exchange rate when he would convert back.

[Pittsburgh Pirates @Pirates]

Welcome to the Show, Carmen 💪

[Scott Mlodzinski @Smlodz]

@MartyChargin How I feel about ACLS! 😩

[LakeShowYo @LakeShowYo]

NFL refs giving Chiefs the championship 😭

[Scott Mlodzinski @Smlodz]

GAMEDAY… LETS GOOOOO

[Philadelphia Eagles @Eagles]

One more

#SBLVII | #FlyEaglesFly

[Scott Mlodzinski @Smlodz]

@cperruna Golf is also an easy sport. You just gotta put the ball in the hole.🤷🏼‍♂️

[Scott Mlodzinski @Smlodz]

@cperruna This company was also already profitable when it IPO’d. Haven’t seen a whole lot of that in all the new tech IPOs during the 2020-2021 craze.

[Scott Mlodzinski @Smlodz]

@MartyChargin Have a starter position in this one. Looking for a good spot to add. Performing consistently since the IPO

[StockChartArt @CasualtyWar]

$ALGM Broke out of a stage 1 base with the heaviest weekly volume since IPO after tomorrows volume is accounted. Blue skies above and will print a new weekly ATH.🤞🏻

3 qs of accelerating double digit sales & EPS. 99 comp, A Acc/Dis, A SMR, B sponsorship.

High on the hunt list!

[Scott Mlodzinski @Smlodz]

@panscan27 @cperruna Alot has been discounted already. That’s not to say we can’t drop further, but if it doesn’t go down on bad news, it means that most the negatives have been priced in.

[Scott Mlodzinski @Smlodz]

@panscan27 @cperruna Earnings do matter. However you need to put things in perspective. If Apple missed earnings when valuations were at their highs, that would matter much more than a miss when valuations are at their lows. It’s all about trying to figure out where we are at in the cycle.

[Scott Mlodzinski @Smlodz]

@RoadRun70831608 @cperruna With the geopolitical tensions and on-shoring of certain critical industries, it makes sense. We need to build out our infrastructure, so that’s where investment is going, and thus more hiring.

[Scott Mlodzinski @Smlodz]

@cperruna Waiting to see what the Market does with the big tech earnings misses. Seems they’ve absorbed it so far in after hours. Tomorrow will be a tell. If the market doesn’t go down, I would say that would be a very good sign.

[Scott Mlodzinski @Smlodz]

First full year back in this amazing city was an absolutely fulfilling one! Lets one up our comrads from across the street @Eagles #GoBirds !

[Justin Lever ❤️⚾️ @JustinLever3]

The Moment the Phillies and Eagles both made it back to the World Series & Super Bowl 🤩

#Phillies #FlyEaglesFly

[Ndamukong Suh @NdamukongSuh]

See you in Arizona 🦅

[Scott Mlodzinski @Smlodz]

$STNE looking to finally form a stage 1 base here as it crosses the 200MA. #position