In a Japanese rail station, I see a nation that values personal responsibility - no spending on fences, etc., to "keep people safe".
Serious rail accidents
UK 1460.
Japan 4.
*details below.
Conclusion: British nanny statism is lethal.
@TJTheWheelDeal I prefer Joby and their integrity. But I’ve very little interest in either. eVTOL vehicles will be slower and smaller than other opportunities.
I'm working on a deep dive on OPEN which is frankly 100x more thorough than my July 14, 2025 tweet thread.
Having some friends review it first. Then, I'll post it.
$OPEN Contrary to popular belief, nothing has changed in regard to the 100x potential thesis.
Hated at $2-5.
Loved at $10, will be even more loved at $82+
Stock market is the only place on earth where people do not shop sales.
Buy High, Panic Sell Low 🔃
Volatility creates opportunity—but only if your time horizon is longer than the market’s attention span.
I’m not trying to predict next week’s price.
I’m trying to understand what this business could look like several years from now.
Time will tell.
$OPEN is a volatile stock. That’s exactly why I think it should be invested in, not traded.
Turnarounds are rarely linear. The market usually overestimates what can happen in 3 months and underestimates what can happen in 3 years.
I think @nejatian deserves to be judged over the length of his tenure, not by the next earnings release.
Execution is what matters:
Are unit economics improving?
Is capital being deployed more intelligently?
Is the platform becoming stronger each quarter?
Yes, yes, yes.
@PaperBozz Good. Welcome to the party. It’s a solid company. Caution, the turnaround might take another 12-18 months. It’s not a quick buck, but maybe 50-500x in the long term.
@Chuggy6@NoLongerTheFuzz Nah. Unless you listen very carefully and critically Jason leaves the listener with the impression that he was at Crystal Palace professionally until 18. It’s very deceptive.
$OPEN is 10 months into an 18 to 24 month turnaround. If you were hoodwinked into believing this was a get rich quick then that’s your responsibility. I’ve used this example a 100 times. I held $HOOD for 16 months at $10 to get to $20. Now look where it’s at. I held $ASTS for 2.9 years at $3.10 average to get to where it is today and it’s been higher. I bought every oil stock I could during 2020. XOM at $33, CHV at $54, FANG at $20. Everyone said the oil industry was dead. Yeah right. Turnarounds take time. The stock market is not for everyone.
@vharbinger@bcab88@ericjackson No way $OPEN gets to 20c. Sales are growing. Layer 2 (mortgage etc) is proven. Contribution margin is improving. Holding time is shrinking. Guidance for imminent positive EBITDA. Great leadership from @nejatian .
Faster.
Starting in March, the mortgage rate began rising from 6% to the current +6.6%.
If Opendoor continues to meet its guidance even under this macro environment, it would demonstrate over a full quarter that the business can not only survive in a context of increasingly higher rates, but actually grow.
Regardless of what happens in the upcoming earnings, whether the stock goes down, stays flat, or goes up.
It would still be a clear demonstration of strength in the company’s fundamentals.