Sovranoq

[Sovranoq @Sovranoq]

@aleabitoreddit He didn’t say ‘harder than finder power’, he said ‘harder than just finding power’. Completely different comments.

Power still be most difficult constraint. Seems a disingenuous quote tbh

[Sovranoq @Sovranoq]

@TheShortBear $smci

[Sovranoq @Sovranoq]

@RealSimpleAriel so it will be up 10% tomorrow then

[Sovranoq @Sovranoq]

@RNAiAnalyst so you want to bag a load of investors. buy 150k of calls, stock spikes 15% (10s of millions of volume to sell into along the way). loool

[Sovranoq @Sovranoq]

@BobEUnlimited now zoom out

[Sovranoq @Sovranoq]

@CharityHedge Is the bond market trying to anticipate tomorrow?

Doesn't seem to have the correct moves in FX and equities but curious why big move in long end

[Sovranoq @Sovranoq]

@CharityHedge Absolutely. Just curious about the probabilities as that would suggest to what extent things gets priced in prior (as we are talking about large moves).

Thanks for insight.

[Sovranoq @Sovranoq]

@CharityHedge In video I recall you ascribed a 5-7% chance of QRA 'tinkering'.

Given Trump rhetoric and objectives (without it being very feasible to fire Powell), it seems like a very proximate action that is right down his street.

Just curious as to why such a low probability outcome?

[Sovranoq @Sovranoq]

@CharityHedge How much will yields and stronger dollar put a dent in equity rally do you feel?

[Sovranoq @Sovranoq]

@CharityHedge That's a nice amount of action today for 26 ticks.

Surely suggests a higher baseline for VIX going fwds.

[Sovranoq @Sovranoq]

@CharityHedge Noted and yes makes sense (that it doesn't make sense...)

[Sovranoq @Sovranoq]

@CharityHedge Quite a few people suggesting this regarding Powell's speech and his insinuations. Would explain the price action in equities. Thoughts?

[Sovranoq @Sovranoq]

@CharityHedge https://t.co/NvAUMh5nEB

[Longbow @myLongbow]

Changing the Game. Powell announced they may throw out the 2020 playbook for managing rates based on inflation/employment data. We had low interest rates and inflation back then…and supply shocks were from the pandemic vs governments. My guess? 3% (inflation target) will be the new 2%.

[Sovranoq @Sovranoq]

@CharityHedge Above pre-Liberation day levels with the 'framework' of one deal in the bag, with a deficit country. Very interesting!

[Sovranoq @Sovranoq]

@CharityHedge art of the kneel

[Sovranoq @Sovranoq]

@CharityHedge You read my mind with the post - Wanted to ask what your current base case is. Distribution of probable outcomes is making me dizzy. Flavour of the week is tariffs, but what about all the other issues? Budget deficit issue surely puts more pressure on bonds, slowdown fears?

[Sovranoq @Sovranoq]

@CharityHedge Any further view on gold from here?

[Sovranoq @Sovranoq]

@CharityHedge What is your protection of choice here?

[Sovranoq @Sovranoq]

@CharityHedge https://t.co/jC6luQGi5m

Who knows the truth to it but but explain why his press conferences are so indifferent, and almost more hardline than Trump.

[Bill Ackman @BillAckman]

I just figured out why @howardlutnick is indifferent to the stock market and the economy crashing. He and Cantor are long bonds. He profits when our economy implodes.

It’s a bad idea to pick a Secretary of Commerce whose firm is levered long fixed income. It’s an irreconcilable conflict of interest.

[Sovranoq @Sovranoq]

@CharityHedge feels quite capitulatory?