NWE MR supply sits at +12 ships. ARA is outcompeting Houston on every major gasoline route.
The TA arb briefly reopened last week, but Iran-US talks collapsing on Monday pushed paper prices back to unworkable levels for most players. ARA is now beating Houston into Mexico, Canada, Eastern Africa, and Australia in July delivery windows.
▸ RBOB: physical flows from NWE into the US stay in demand, but ARA freight is capping GC spreads.
▸ EBOB: August prices peak tightness. E5 blend margins stubbornly elevated, EBOB Jul/Aug spread bullish.
▸ Sing 92: E/W rally has hit a ceiling as ARA retakes global market share.
Find the full gasoline analysis in the comments below 👇
#oilmarkets #commoditytrading #oott #gasoline
North Sea diffs hit $3/bbl. Now they're cooling - but the US picture is moving in the opposite direction.
Cushing stocks are depleting, the MEH spread is weak, and another crude draw is expected tonight.
The WTI/Brent long still holds. Read @NGCanalyst's brief in the comments 👇
#oilmarkets #crudeoil #oiltrading #commoditytrading #oott
TC2 at 141 WS is one of the three largest supply overhangs of the year at 25 ships against a 90-day average of 13. But Rotterdam to NY heavy naphtha open at +27.35 cpg as PADD 1 blenders pull components from ARA. WAF gasoline arb at +38.25 $/mt, Argentina at +14.10 cpg, Montreal mogas arb now open. Cargo demand picture is relatively bullish. Tonnage overhang is the problem. Forward curve flat at 145 WS through December. Watch ARA-to-NY blender margins for second-half July and August delivery as the paper entry signal.
Open Sparta. Your forward curve is there. Your live margin is there. Now, your Platts assessment is there too.
The physical benchmark next to your curve structure and your arb.
See where physical pricing sits against your view of the market. Validate the position. Act.
Benchmark data, market insights and forward intelligence, in one platform: https://t.co/zx1lIHe4IW
#oiltrading #platts #commoditytrading #oott
The Sparta freight supply & demand model says USGC MR rates should be falling. The market disagrees.
Tonnage remains long at 17 open MRs vs a 90-day avg of 14, and the FSD model forecasts softening to WS 223. WS 255 is now on subs though. Sentiment has shifted and charterers are already chasing rates higher.
▸ Ballaster counts have thinned sharply, stripping depth from the forward list
▸ ECSAM and Central American arb margins are widening - MR demand doesn't need the transatlantic route
▸ Charterers waiting for model confirmation will likely be covering into a firming market
▸ Owners can push above last done levels
Find the full USGC MR freight analysis in the comments below 👇
#oilmarkets #commoditytrading #oiltrading #oott
"𝘋𝘢𝘵𝘢 𝘢𝘷𝘢𝘪𝘭𝘢𝘣𝘪𝘭𝘪𝘵𝘺 𝘪𝘴 𝘯𝘰 𝘭𝘰𝘯𝘨𝘦𝘳 𝘢 𝘥𝘪𝘧𝘧𝘦𝘳𝘦𝘯𝘵𝘪𝘢𝘵𝘰𝘳. 𝘊𝘰𝘯𝘴𝘪𝘴𝘵𝘦𝘯𝘤𝘺 𝘪𝘴."
Eric Vial, CEO of Bxt Trading.
BxT built their global oil trading desk from day one. Their priority in the data layer:
"𝘞𝘪𝘵𝘩𝘰𝘶𝘵 𝘢 𝘤𝘰𝘮𝘮𝘰𝘯 𝘴𝘵𝘳𝘶𝘤𝘵𝘶𝘳𝘦, 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘥𝘰𝘯'𝘵 𝘩𝘢𝘷𝘦 𝘢 𝘴𝘪𝘯𝘨𝘭𝘦 𝘷𝘪𝘦𝘸 𝘰𝘧 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘮𝘢𝘳𝘬𝘦𝘵."
Same product, different specs = different pricing views.
Same time-spread, different curve build = inconsistent signals.
Same cargo, different valuation logic = P&L volatility.
That's why BxT plugged Sparta Data Marketplace into their stack. One normalised feed. One source of truth. Every team working from the same data, structured the same way.
Read the case study in the comments below 👇
#oiltrading #data #commoditytrading #oott
Iran and the Resistance Front reportedly targeting a full Hormuz blockade. Plus Bab el-Mandeb.
Markets aren't waiting for confirmation.
Jul ICE GO cracks up $5/bbl since Friday. Spreads surging $10/mt. USGC arbs into Europe still closed.
This morning may just be the opening act.
James Noel-Beswick, Sparta's Head of Commodities walks through the implications. Read the analyst brief in the comments 👇
#oilmarkets #oiltrading #commoditytrading #oott
The market is pricing in a deal. What if there isn't one?
Brent positioning has flipped just as inventory risk quietly builds. @NGCanalyst runs through what that means across the barrel:
▸ US commercial crude draws are only weeks from becoming a real problem for the WTI arb.
▸ WTI Afra arb still open to Europe on weak freight and soft MEH.
▸ Canada wildfires risk a Cushing squeeze that's already forming.
▸ RBOB spreads worth watching - they could blow out first.
Find the full crude analysis in the comments below 👇
#oilmarkets #crudeoil #oiltrading #oott
Beijing is drawing SPR, redirecting refinery yields, and keeping crude available for the rest of Asia.
The byproduct: 5 mb/d freed up for the world. @NGCanalyst on Trade with Conviction.
Full episode in the comments 👇
#oott#crudeoil#oiltrading#commoditytrading
Iran deal chatter has pushed spreads lower. Sparta's May 2026 Europe Chart Pack says that's a tactical entry point.
> US diesel stocks fell to a multiyear low below 101m bbls at end-May. HO spreads look cheap and PADD 3 arbs to NWE and LATAM are holding as TC18 and TC14 are weak.
> Chinese crude imports are down to an estimated 6-7 mbd in May/June. WTI Midland is increasingly competitive into NWE on weaker TD25 freight.
> RBOB spike risk is rising. US gasoline stocks are stretched and the ARA-NYH arb is still open.
Workarounds are delaying tightness, not reversing it.
Full chart pack here: https://t.co/7hUvgdgYLJ
#oott #oilmarkets #crudeoil #commoditytrading
"𝘛𝘩𝘦 𝘮𝘦𝘥𝘪𝘶𝘮-𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘮 𝘪𝘴 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘣𝘪𝘨𝘨𝘦𝘳 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘤𝘦𝘳𝘯. 𝘐𝘧 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘧𝘭𝘪𝘤𝘵 𝘥𝘳𝘢𝘨𝘴 𝘰𝘯 𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘩 𝘯𝘰 𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘰𝘭𝘶𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘪𝘯 𝘴𝘪𝘨𝘩𝘵, 𝘸𝘦 𝘤𝘰𝘶𝘭𝘥 𝘴𝘵𝘢𝘳𝘵 𝘵𝘰 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘭 𝘵𝘪𝘨𝘩𝘵𝘯𝘦𝘴𝘴 𝘦𝘮𝘦𝘳𝘨𝘦 𝘵𝘰𝘸𝘢𝘳𝘥𝘴 𝘭𝘢𝘵𝘦 𝘈𝘶𝘨𝘶𝘴𝘵 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘪𝘯𝘵𝘰 𝘦𝘢𝘳𝘭𝘺 𝘚𝘦𝘱𝘵𝘦𝘮𝘣𝘦𝘳."
James Noel-Beswick, Head of Commodities at Sparta, in @Reuters.
Inventories are falling. Supply chains have stretched to fill the gap. Louisiana to Melbourne, Europe to the Seychelles.
But that flexibility has a timeline.
Full article: https://t.co/US5lpejS2u
#distillates #jetfuel #oott #reuters #oiltrading
The market's priced an Iran deal. @JuneGoh_Sparta and @NGCanalyst think that's a mistake.
This week on the Trade with Conviction podcast:
> China's May crude imports could be as low as 7 million bpd. That's 5 million bpd freed up for the rest of Asia, and nobody saw it coming
> US commercial inventory draws are accelerating, yet the arb hasn't closed. TI-Brent still has room
> Bullish bias on RBOB spreads and Sing 92 EW
> Diesel E/W dynamic changed by China freeing up crude for rest-Asia
> Sing FOGO strengthens as bunker demand more inelastic than diesel
Listen to the full episode: https://t.co/agd8yr9UoS
#oott #oilmarkets #oiltrading #commoditytrading