4/ The Grid Squeeze ⚡🥵
Summer is going to be brutally hot in the Northern Hemisphere. Every AC unit from Texas to Tokyo is going to be screaming for its life.
What powers the grid when it's pushed to the brink? Natural gas.
El Niño is going to make new millionaires, and this is how. 🌊💰
History shows us that extreme weather cycles create massive supply shocks and where there is chaos, there is incredible opportunity.
Here is the exact playbook on how to front-run Mother Nature’s tantrum. 🧵👇
El Niño is emerging even faster than expected in the Pacific Ocean and odds are increasing that it could become historically strong — a rare "Super" El Niño — by fall or winter. https://t.co/rMg9twp0sK
3/ The Copper Squeeze ⛏️🥉
Peru and Chile mine a stupid amount of the world's copper. El Niño brings torrential, historic rains to these areas.
Try mining copper when your quarry is a giant swimming pool. Hint: you can't.
Less copper supply + the EV boom = green candle heaven.
The Iranian navy, which has been destroyed eight times, closed the Strait of Hormuz again, because the United States for the seventh time won the war that wasn’t a war, so the United States can open the Strait of Hormuz that was open before the not war.
The not war that started to get the uranium that was completely obliterated, so that the Iranians can’t build the nuclear bomb that they weren’t building for the not war that the United States started.
Then the United States which has nuclear weapons threatening to use nuclear weapons to prevent Iran from having nuclear weapons because having nuclear weapons is dangerous.
If the United States saw what the United States is doing in the United States, the United States would invade the United States to liberate the United States from the tyranny of the United States.
$2.2 billion in perfectly timed oil trades over the last 30 days.
Three major announcements, Three oil crashes And every single time someone placed massive short positions minutes before the news went public.
1. On March 23, $500 million in oil shorts were placed 15 minutes before Trump announced he would delay attacks on Iran's energy infrastructure. Oil dropped 15%.
2. On April 7, $950 million in oil shorts appeared hours before Trump announced the US-Iran ceasefire. Oil crashed again.
3. On April 17, $760 million in shorts hit the market 20 minutes before Iran's Foreign Minister declared the strait open. 7,990 Brent crude futures contracts sold in a single minute. Oil fell to $81.
The first two times it was before Trump's announcements. This time it was before Iran's announcement.
The combined value of all three trades exceeds $2.2 billion.
Even if Hormuz opens TOMORROW — here’s the math nobody is doing:
🚢 Tankers travel back to Middle East: 25-30 days
⛽ New tankers load and return: 25-30 days
Total: 50-60 days before flows normalize
And that’s the BEST case scenario.
Remember COVID?
OPEC+ cut 10M b/d in early April 2020.
Cuts didn’t start until May.
Oil crashed to NEGATIVE $37 two weeks later.
The supply response came too late.
History is rhyming. 🛢️💥
This is why we are headed for the breaking point.
Manage your expectations accordingly. ⏳
Scène assez incroyable à l’AN.
On apprend notamment que Xavier Niel, auditionné, est furieux de manquer le conseil d’administration d’Exaion, ancienne filiale d’EDF rachetée il y a quelques semaines par l’Américain Mara (géant du minage de bitcoin).
Le milliardaire français a investi 10 % dans Exaion pour imposer la présence de "6 Français sur 10 administrateurs".
L'américain Mara a quand même pris la majorité du capitale d'Exaion.
Pour ceux qui se demandaient si Xavier Niel s'intéressait vraiment au dossier, il qualifie Exaion de "société d’importance vitale pour le pays".
Pour rappel, Exaion était la filiale d’EDF dédiée au calcul haute performance, une activité stratégique pour l'IA et le minage de bitcoin.
Les révélations de @TheBigWhale_ sur les conditions de la vente avaient poussé le pouvoir à intervenir: https://t.co/mqhEetbvJV
Xavier Niel a investi pour maintenir un contrôle français au sein du conseil d’administration.