I have never seen the stock market on a more razors edge than at any time in my life than right now.
Any sort of peace deal and the market meltup continues to 8000+ by July. The lagging value stocks probably have a 20-30% move in them in this scenario.
However, continued escalation and the downside possibilities are immense with oil supplies certainly going into a full blown global crisis later this summer.
Trump wants out, but only Iran can let him out. He's never been more caged with zero control of a situation than at any point in his life.
Market has been betting heavily on a TACO, which logically makes all the sense in the world given Trump's history. But have they seriously overestimated Trump's ability to extract himself from the situation?
We will visit March lows of 6300 (or lower) if this doesn't resolve.
So now we’re totally in it. Don’t be fooled by the Pollyanna’s out there. Trump has not been wrong. I’m willing to bet that he was lying all along. He uses negotiations as a cover for surprise attacks. He lies about peace deals to keep the markets from crashing. He used a “ceasefire” to buy time for whatever remained of US strike packages to be deployed—undercover—against Iran. I, too, am doubtful that Israel could have struck Iran this way. I believe US assets either assisted or did it and Israel simply took credit.
This is tragic but predictable
The US/Israeli triggered the worst escalation trap since Vietnam
Iran is stronger and now defending its ally Hezbollah after Israel attacked Beirut
This is a major setback
The ceasefire won’t hold unless Trump decisively restrains Israel
If Iran's critical infrastructure is attacked, there will be no critical infrastructure left in occupied Palestine, nor in the complicit Arab family dictatorships in the Persian Gulf. That will mean the end of the global economy as we know it.
Donald had a temper tantrum on national television and walked out of an interview simply because Kristen Welker presented him with a basic fact.
Note to other journalists: now is the time to pile on. He won't be able to handle it.
The magnitude of what just happened may take some time to sink in.
This is the first time Iran has struck Israel after Israel struck another country's territory (that is, not Iran).
This means that the battle lines have been moved.
Iran's deterrence had already been restored in the sense that Israel knew that any strike on it would be responded to.
But now, Iran has proven that it will also respond to Israeli strikes on Lebanon.
This is the first time in decades that a regional power has the means, capacity, and willingness to put hard power against Israeli military maneuvers or aggression against a third party.
Read full analysis here: https://t.co/CPawJ4TYdr
@GlobalBoxOffice 20 years too late. Kids that grew up with this in the ‘80s are grandfathers. It’s like people in the ‘80 trying to convince their kids and grandkids to go see The Lone Ranger.