Spleenface

I tweet about magic, mostly
Co-Host @IntoTheNorthPod

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@Scoop_Phase Throwback to adbond
https://t.co/qrpqK7bLr1

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@Scoop_Phase @FaceToFaceGames 👀

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@ApoloJedi_ @cmsj Humans have been building oil tankers for about 100 years (36,500 days) The fastest a tanker was ever built was 33 days. 36500/33 ~=1,100. The ~8,000 active tankers could not have been constructed in only 100 years, therefore our model of ship construction is wrong.

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@gfodor Your vote is equally likely to make the difference either way. If the outcome is close, the odds that you win by voting blue increase, but so do the odds that blue wins even if you pick red.
What actually matters is the utility of the outcomes.

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When I first saw the question, I was a firm red buttoner, but I think the most compelling blue button argument is that I've never seen a poll that was under 30% blue

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@cometsthatfall Me when I'm a communist

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@DTrain_94 Not saying I endorse that view 100%, but I was confidently on team red until I realized how many people I knew were on team blue, even after I explained the point you made... now I'm genuinely unsure

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@DTrain_94 It's a strictly dominant strategy in a world of game theory, but we don't live in that world.
The position for picking blue is:
Enough people will misunderstand the question or believe they are acting the saviour that it's worth risking my life to save them from themselves

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@crazy_lekiwi @PolitiReality The market for products that don't exist was a duopoly, then Theranos collapsed...

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@CynzGodzchild2 @TheTNHoller He said he told Republicans: "Don't make any deal on anything"
TSA Funding would typically fall in the category of "a thing" and thus would be part of the set of "anything" on which Trump has suggested the Republicans not make deals.
Hope this helps...

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@BradenMTG I am.
Any statement that begins with "Donald Trump thinks" is hard to believe

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@Naozymandias Therefore the chance that an AGI breakthrough happens in the next X years is not substantially changed from 3 years ago.

(For clarity the two premises are positions I ~sort of~ hold, but not fully. I could defend them more thoroughly, but not in 280 characters)

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@Naozymandias A hyperbolic statement, but the argument would be:
1. AGI will be achieved through a large breakthrough, not incremental improvements
2. Work that could lead to that breakthrough has slowed as we focus on LLMs, which are not a functional foundation for true AGI

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@newenglandtake @ChrisRGun Glad to hear it. A little crazy that it took until Tuesday to confirm, but at least they are doing the right thing now. As the article points out, it was Bovino, not Noem who said they would continue to work out of state on Sunday

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@newenglandtake @ChrisRGun Maybe it's changed, last I saw Noem said they were still working, just outside Minnesota. If it's changed, I'd guess it's because of pressure and backlash

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@matt_grenier @Ryan_on_cEDH This a story about a person who doesn't normally lie, lied once, but wants to be seen as a person who won't lie in the future, but outsiders without context assume it's a more morally weighted discussion than it actually is, which seems silly (as you say, lying in games is fine)

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@matt_grenier @Ryan_on_cEDH A) Thank you for seeking understanding rather than just making assumptions and trying to dunk
B) The reason people care is because there is a lot of value in being trusted to not lie, and the community is small enough that stories like this one spread

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@Flayertheplaya @caro_irl So true. The cEDH community getting exactly one ban in like 8 years of talking with the RC is definitely them "driving the ban list"

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@OurOldDad @freganmitts It's nice to know when I'm interacting with someone that I'm talking to THEM and not Mr Flattery, the Always Wrong bot.
It's also nice to feel like I don't have to choose between using it and being at a disadvantage compared to my peers