Fajasy

(guides, models, tools) | (EDGAR reader) | Write-ups on AI infra, rocks, spec sits, SaaS, new 52w lows 👇

[Fajasy @StableBread]

If you're still using EDGAR to read SEC filings, you're wasting your time!

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[Fajasy @StableBread]

Read the 20-F’s line on VSun China’s wafers here: https://t.co/VORm0Lw2wt
Continue reading here for what each possible Commerce ruling does to my valuation of $TOYO: https://t.co/76t1GCSzlU

[Fajasy @StableBread]

Commerce’s first ruling on whether TOYO Co., Ltd’s $TOYO Ethiopian cells should pay the duties on Chinese cells is due ~December 14.

$TOYO says those cells use no Chinese wafers, but in 2025, it bought $94.9M of goods from VSun China, which its 20-F calls “a crucial supplier of monocrystalline silicon wafer.”

Circumvention is when a producer finishes its products in another country to avoid duties on goods from its home country.

On May 12, 2026, First Solar $FSLR and seven other U.S. manufacturers asked Commerce to extend the 2012 duties on Chinese solar cells to cells and modules completed in Ethiopia with Chinese parts.

Commerce opened the inquiry on July 17, and $TOYO’s deck says it’s a mandatory respondent, meaning Commerce chose $TOYO as one of the companies whose production, sourcing, and shipment records it examines directly.

Commerce targets a preliminary determination within 150 days (~December 14, 2026) and a final one within 300 days (~May 13, 2027), unless it extends the deadlines.

$TOYO’s defense rests on the line Commerce drew in 2023.

In its Southeast Asia rulings that August, Commerce applied the China duties to cells made there from wafers produced in China, plus modules that paired those cells with more than two Chinese components.

However, it didn’t count wafers made outside China as Chinese, even when they used Chinese polysilicon.

Products outside those terms could avoid the China duties through a certification process, but Commerce barred the companies it found uncooperative in those inquiries from using the certification.

Neither $TOYO nor VSUN (the Vietnamese panel maker $TOYO was carved out of) was on that list.

$TOYO’s deck says the inquiry also covers past shipments.

$TOYO bought no raw materials from VSun China in H1 2026, just $2.6M of machinery, but it did buy $7.4M of unspecified raw materials from VSUN’s Vietnamese subsidiary in Q2.

I found no filing, release, or Commerce notice that says where VSun China’s wafers were made or which $TOYO plant used them.

$TOYO has asked Commerce for a prospective path, which would judge its current production separately from past shipments.

$TOYO’s slide on that request reads, “Commerce has not agreed to either approach. Timing and outcome remain uncertain.”

I’m fairly comfortable with $TOYO’s current cells, since $TOYO says they use non-Chinese wafers, which Commerce left out of the China duties in its 2023 rulings.

I’m less comfortable with its 2025 shipments, since $TOYO bought $94.9M of goods from VSun China that year, and Commerce hasn’t agreed to judge them separately from current production.

[Fajasy @StableBread]

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[Fajasy @StableBread]

@bjmtweets main thing is the community aspect. and they generally downvote ai stuff to zero lol

[Fajasy @StableBread]

From 1977 to 1990, Peter Lynch ran Fidelity's Magellan fund, and $1,000 invested in it grew to $28,000, roughly 29% per year. By 1989 it owned about 1,400 stocks, with half its money in 100 of them. For individual investors, he wrote that he'd be comfortable owning 3 to 10 stocks, and that a part-time stock picker probably only has time to follow 8 to 12 companies.

→ Full video: https://t.co/eh2Ze5lRDF

[Fajasy @StableBread]

Read the 6-K’s own words on the June orders here: https://t.co/3IeIu4Wbge
Continue reading here for what Commerce’s Ethiopia inquiry could add on top of the detentions: https://t.co/76t1GCSzlU

[Fajasy @StableBread]

U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) detained just $13,770 of TOYO Co., Ltd’s $TOYO solar cells in May, yet by $TOYO’s own account, the review affected its Q3 and Q4 2026 earnings.

CBP enforces the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act (UFLPA), which presumes that any product made even partly in China’s Xinjiang region involves forced labor, so the agency can hold solar shipments until the importer documents where its polysilicon came from.

The cells were worth little, but U.S. customers pulled back.

$TOYO’s largest customer (35% of H1 2026 revenue) placed no orders in June, Ethiopian production lines sat idle that month, and moving their costs into G&A drove most of a ~$3.4M rise in other G&A costs in Q2.

Rhone Resch, $TOYO’s Chief Strategy Officer, said on the Q2 call on August 19 that the total amount detained was “not all that significant,” and he was optimistic the detentions would be released in Q3, which ended September 30.

By October 6, 2026, when $TOYO held its Analyst Day, CBP had detained four of $TOYO’s cell shipments, though $TOYO didn’t say how many cells or dollars they carried.

Resch called the detentions “almost a normal part of the process,” and on the Q2 call, he had said CBP moves a company to an expedited path “after about four reviews or so.”

He also introduced Ana Hinojosa as part of the $TOYO team, noting she was CBP’s former Executive Director of Trade Remedy Law Enforcement.

She told analysts the company was “very optimistic that the resolution of the detentions is a day to a week away.”

I found no announcement of a release in $TOYO’s press releases or filings through October 26.

VSUN, the Vietnamese panel maker $TOYO was carved out of, has had the same problem.

Abalance, the Japanese group that controls both companies, disclosed that CBP refused entry to part of VSUN’s panels from Vietnam in January 2026, costing it ¥2,082M (~$13.3M at today’s exchange rate), and that solar products from two major overseas subsidiaries, which it didn’t name, were detained under the UFLPA.

I’m not comfortable with the detentions yet, since CBP doesn’t appear to have a deadline to decide, and June already proved that customers stop placing orders while $TOYO’s cells are under review.

[Fajasy @StableBread]

On the no-equity point, $BRUN said Oct 26 it's closed more than $600M of non-dilutive project financing so far in 2026. Tho H2 alone needs ~$527-686M, so the mid-November Q3 report is the first check on whether it covers the build. And the July order plus Cohere add $160.7M/year starting 2027.

[Fajasy @StableBread]

Read the 8-K on White’s firing here: https://t.co/gmoUnXnVzc

Continue reading here for how much of $QMCO’s growth now comes from tape: https://t.co/GXzV3AQBgs

[Fajasy @StableBread]

I compared the 8-K on Quantum’s $QMCO CFO firing to the one on its chief accounting officer’s exit in August.

$QMCO terminated William White as CFO on October 9, 2026, effective immediately, eight months after appointing him on February 2, 2026.

When I first wrote up $QMCO on May 6, White was its newly appointed CFO, after the seat had been empty since August 2025.

The 8-K gives no reason, and I found no press release about the firing on $QMCO’s investor relations site.

Instead, the 8-K says $QMCO expects to file its September-quarter 10-Q on time.

The filing also says $QMCO expects to meet or exceed its guidance for the quarter, even though it was still “early in its financial closing process.”

Chief accounting officer Hiral Patel took over as principal financial officer, so she now signs off on $QMCO’s financial statements with the CEO.

Patel only joined $QMCO on September 1, after the company decided on August 11 to replace Laura Nash as chief accounting officer.

The 8-K on Nash says there are “no disagreements” between her and the company, but the one on White doesn’t say either way.

So within two months, $QMCO replaced both of its top finance officers.

$QMCO’s June-quarter 10-Q still reports material weaknesses (the most serious kind of gap in a company’s financial reporting controls) in revenue recognition, inventory, and income taxes.

It also says $QMCO “lacked sufficiently qualified staff or resources to perform control activities.”

None of the weaknesses has led to a material misstatement, but $QMCO has restated its financial statements before, in May 2024 and again in August 2025.

In my May 6 write-up, I listed restatements as a risk that could break the story, and wrote that a third “would be a serious credibility hit.”

$QMCO expected to fix one of its three revenue weaknesses, the schedules that set when service revenue is recognized, by the end of the September quarter.

Its June-quarter 10-Q was also officially filed on August 11, a day after its 40-day deadline, and its FY2026 10-K needed a notice of late filing in June.

So with open material weaknesses, a history of restatements, and a 10-Q filed a day late in August, I’d rather see the September-quarter 10-Q, due November 9, before taking $QMCO at its word.

[Fajasy @StableBread]

Continue reading here for the four U.S. trade actions now hanging over $TOYO’s Ethiopian cells: https://t.co/76t1GCSzlU

[Fajasy @StableBread]

35% of TOYO Co., Ltd’s $TOYO H1 2026 revenue came from one customer it doesn’t name, and 22% came from companies under its own controlling shareholder.

$TOYO manufactures solar cells, the processed silicon wafers that turn sunlight into electricity, and assembles some of them into panels (modules).

Its cells use TOPCon (tunnel oxide passivated contact), a common high-efficiency silicon cell design.

$TOYO runs three factories:

1) Ethiopia (4 GW of cells): Started production in April 2025, six months after $TOYO announced the plant, added a second 2 GW line in August, and reached its 4 GW nameplate in October 2025.

2) Vietnam (2 GW of cells): Running since H2 2023, but its cells now go to non-U.S. markets like India and Taiwan, since the U.S. Commerce Department set anti-dumping and countervailing duties (taxes on imports sold below cost or subsidized) on Vietnamese cells in April 2025.

3) Texas (2 GW of modules): A leased 567,140-square-foot plant near Houston that started its first 1 GW line in October 2025 and had completed its second by early October 2026. It assembles panels from $TOYO’s Ethiopian cells.

VSUN (Vietnam Sunergy JSC) is the Vietnamese panel maker $TOYO was carved out of, and both companies sit under the same majority shareholder, Abalance, a Japanese solar group.

VSUN is still $TOYO’s lender, owed $51.4M including interest, and a past wafer supplier through its Chinese subsidiary.

$TOYO’s $261.0M of H1 2026 revenue came from four lines:
→ Third-party cells (56.5%): $147.6M of cells sold to outside module makers.
→ Related-party sales (22.0%): $57.5M of cells and modules sold to VSUN and its affiliates.
→ OEM services (14.2%): $37.2M of fees for cells made under one customer’s name, which $TOYO books net, counting only its fee as revenue.
→ Third-party modules (7.2%): $18.7M of Texas-made panels.

Upstream, 70% of the polysilicon (the refined silicon that wafers are cut from) in $TOYO’s Ethiopian cells comes from a U.S. producer and the rest from OCI’s plant in Malaysia, Rhone Resch, $TOYO’s Chief Strategy Officer, said on the Q2 call.

Resch also said its 2026 wafers come from non-China production, “including a designated facility in Indonesia.”

$TOYO markets its supply chain as “non-FEOC,” free of any foreign entity of concern.

U.S. buyers care, since the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) denies the main clean-power tax credit to projects with too much equipment from Prohibited Foreign Entities, a label aimed at Chinese suppliers.

[Fajasy @StableBread]

@FindleysFinance Wire me 6k so it looks better

[Fajasy @StableBread]

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[Fajasy @StableBread]

@ada_lawren $FLNC starts reporting U.S. output vs its own forecast with these results, and Houston was at ~3 units/day in September vs the 11/day plan. FY27 already has ~$2.9B of scheduled backlog, so it comes down to whether they can build it.

https://t.co/nFgH33tMPV

[Fajasy @StableBread]

Id say the soft spots in Q2 for $TOST were cash and hardware, not demand. FCF fell to $130M from $208M as inventory rose $81M on memory pre-buys, and hardware gross profit widened to -$68M. Tho CFO Elena Gomez says memory supply is locked through 2027, and GPV per location held roughly flat.

https://t.co/EIGT30OMzv

[Fajasy @StableBread]

Just posted the $QMCO update here (you can read most of it for free): https://t.co/GXzV3AQBgs

[Fajasy @StableBread]

A tape library maker fired its CFO on October 9, 2026, without giving a reason, and its stock is now down 41.3% from its October 2 peak.

Within two months, it replaced both of its top finance officers.

Yet it still expects to meet or exceed its September-quarter guidance.

That company is Quantum $QMCO, which makes tape libraries that companies use to archive data for years.

$QMCO has fallen to $20.25/share, down 22.4% since my August update, but still more than double the $9.42 investors paid in its June private placement (PIPE).

Worth mentioning that the larger hard drive and flash memory stocks have fallen from their 2026 highs as well, through the October 27 close:
→ SanDisk $SNDK: Down 44.1% to $1,304.84/share.
→ Seagate $STX: Down 39.0% to $667.85/share.
→ Western Digital $WDC: Down 49.0% to $380.88/share.

So $QMCO fell about as far as the group, but in under four weeks instead of four months, and mostly after the CFO was fired.

Besides the firing, three accounting issues hang over $QMCO’s September-quarter 10-Q, due November 9:
1) Material weaknesses: $QMCO’s June-quarter 10-Q still reports material weaknesses (the most serious kind of gap in a company’s financial reporting controls) in revenue recognition, inventory, and income taxes.
2) Restatements: None of the weaknesses has led to a material misstatement, but $QMCO has restated its financial statements before, in May 2024 and again in August 2025.
3) Late filings: Its June-quarter 10-Q was officially filed on August 11, a day after its 40-day deadline, and its FY2026 10-K needed a notice of late filing in June.

Still, tape demand is growing, and no $QMCO insider has sold since my August update:
→ Tape: Secondary storage, which $QMCO’s 10-K describes as “primarily tape storage systems,” doubled from a year earlier to $37.0M in the June quarter, 46% of total revenue, up from 29%.
→ Industry: The LTO Program, the group of $HPE, $IBM, and $QMCO that sets the LTO tape standard, reported on September 1, 2026 that tape capacity shipped in Q1 2026 rose 57% from Q1 2025.
→ Supply: By CEO Hugues Meyrath’s account, $IBM’s drive supply, not demand, limits how much $QMCO can sell for now.
→ Insiders: No $QMCO insider has bought or sold shares in the open market since my August update, including Dialectic, the activist fund managed by director John Fichthorn.

$QMCO’s EV is $825.3M, counting its warrants, options, and RSUs.

That’s 2.8x TTM revenue, down from 4.9x at the October 2 peak, but still 34.4x the September quarter’s $6M ±$1M of adjusted EBITDA guidance, annualized.

So is $QMCO’s drop a pullback worth buying, or a warning about the numbers?

That’s what I answer in my new update on $QMCO, including my bear, base, and bull cases.

[Fajasy @StableBread]

Continue reading here for the six things I’m watching and what would get me to buy: https://t.co/HkExKNwxI4

[Fajasy @StableBread]

By my numbers, Magna Mining $MGMNF (TSX: $NICU) is worth CAD$0.88-3.08/share before restart capital, depending mostly on Levack, its flagship mine.

Here’s what the stock is worth under four Levack outcomes at Q2 margins, before restart capital (the upfront spending to rebuild and reopen the mine):

1) Levack worth nothing: CAD$0.88-1.09/share from cash, McCreedy West (the producing mine), and Crean Hill (the permitted nickel mine), 45-56% below the CAD$1.98 share price (October 23 close).

2) Levack at McCreedy West’s scale: 17M lbs/year is worth ~US$114M, which makes the stock worth CAD$1.35-1.56/share, 21-32% below CAD$1.98.

3) Levack at its study’s plan: The October 7 preliminary economic assessment (PEA) plans 36.8M lbs/year from mid-2028 to 2035, worth ~US$246M, which makes the stock worth CAD$1.90-2.12/share, 4% below to 7% above CAD$1.98.

4) Levack at the top of CEO Jason Jessup’s range (3x McCreedy West): 54M lbs/year is worth ~US$361M, which makes the stock worth ~CAD$2.59/share (+31%) with McCreedy West and Crean Hill at the top of my ranges. With a 10% higher realized price, Levack rises to ~US$479M and the stock to ~CAD$3.08 (+56%).

The PEA’s CAD$70.1M of initial capital would take ~CAD$0.21/share off the last three cases, but pre-commercial cash flow and tax credits cut the net funding need to CAD$8.6M (~CAD$0.03/share).

On the upside, SCP Resource Finance, a mining-focused investment bank, put a CAD$5.10 target on the stock (+158%) in its April 14 note, before Alpayana, a Peruvian mining group, bought 62.4M new shares at CAD$2.25.

Canaccord Genuity $CCORF, a Canadian investment bank, and Desjardins, a Quebec-based financial cooperative, also cover the stock, and both advised Magna on the Alpayana deal.

Reaching SCP’s CAD$5.10 would demand ~US$964M from Levack and the rest, ~3.9x Levack’s value at the PEA’s output and Q2 margins.

Getting there takes (1) ore from R2, a high-grade zone at Levack, (2) higher metal prices, (3) better margins at Levack than at McCreedy West, or a strong mix of the three.