Stas T. Serfes

Crypto content! Breaking crypto news and current events. Not financial advice, of course.

[Stas T. Serfes @StasTaksStocks]

I want to say thank you to the 90 individuals that have given me the courtesy and honor of subscribing to my channel. You have no idea how much you mean to me. I’ll tell you why. For years I’ve dreamed of having a social media platform.

[Stas T. Serfes @StasTaksStocks]

This is crazy!

Bitcoin is more oversold now than during the Covid crash!

[Stas T. Serfes @StasTaksStocks]

Thank you CryptoMichNL! Great insight and fantastic chart for ALL crypto holders to pay attention to right now.

[Michaël van de Poppe @CryptoMichNL]

It's important to be realizing that things need to be put into perspective.

The ISM Manufacturing PMI is heading into the first 50+ read in more than 3 years.

It's been one of the longest 'bear' markets on that regard.

Not great for the business cycle, and not great for #Bitcoin.

The fact that Bitcoin rallied is simply and only due to the launch and liquidity of the ETF.

By now, just now, is the moment that the markets start to wake up.

Now, there's a lot of debate on the fact that PMI stayed positive in previous times and Bitcoin went into a bear market.

Yes, for sure, because macroeconomic conditions entirely changed.

Last cycle:
- End of 2021 the FED decided to start QT and heavily increase interest rates.

This time:
- QE has started as economy is slightly getting weaker and decrease of interest rate.

There's a reason why Gold and Silver peaked last week and that's due to the fact of the end of this macroeconomic period of time.

In the coming 1-3 years, we'll see a strong, and final bull on #Bitcoin and #Crypto.

Credits to @brett_eth for the chart.

[Stas T. Serfes @StasTaksStocks]

👀👇

[Jesse Eckel @Jesseeckel]

Every single crypto bull run ever (2013, 2017 and 2021) happened when the ISM moved up above 50.

Today we hit 52.6.

This entire cycle since 2021 we’ve been below 50 with only tiny blips above the surface.

This is by far the largest move up we’ve had this cycle.

Run it hot.

[Stas T. Serfes @StasTaksStocks]

Let’s get it started

[Michaël van de Poppe @CryptoMichNL]

The last time Gold topped, the following happened:

- $ETH bottomed 9 months prior.
- $ETH crashed by 30-40%.

This time;
- $ETH bottomed 9 months prior
- $ETH is down 31% already.

What happened after that?

A rise of 300%+ against #Bitcoin for Ethereum and the bull market for crypto.

[Stas T. Serfes @StasTaksStocks]

Well hell!

Definitely a contributing factor to why crypto is getting hit hard today.

[Coin Bureau @coinbureau]

🚨THE U.S. SHUT DOWN WHILE MARKETS WERE ASLEEP!!

A "partial" government shutdown is now live after the House failed to vote on a funding deal.

Lawmakers may fix it when they reconvene on Monday — or they may not.

Because it happened over the weekend, markets had NO chance to react.

That reaction now comes Monday morning.

Until then, markets open with headline risk.

Here’s what traders will be watching at the open:

• Futures reaction at the open
• Volatility spikes from policy uncertainty
• Risk assets pricing a longer shutdown
• Rotation into Treasuries and safe havens
• Missing economic data creating macro blind spots

Historically, short shutdowns rarely crash markets.

But they do increase uncertainty — and markets hate uncertainty more than bad news.

Because this shutdown began while liquidity was thin, price discovery was delayed, not avoided.

Monday is when the bill comes due.

Washington may be closed again.

But markets never are. 🔥

[Stas T. Serfes @StasTaksStocks]

Have been talking about ALL of this - and, its potential impact on crypto!

Very important!

[Crypto Rover @cryptorover]

🚨BIG WARNING: THE NEXT 72 HOURS CAN MAKE OR BREAK CRYPTO.

This week has one of the most dangerous macro setups we’ve seen in months.

In the next 3 days, six major events are hitting the market.

1) Trump speaks today at 4 PM ET.

He will talk about the US economy and energy prices.

If he calls for lower energy prices, this will directly impact the inflation.

2) The Fed decision tomorrow.

This time, no rate cut or hike is expected.

So the real move will start when Powell speaks.

2 weeks ago, Powell accused Trump of forcing him for rate cuts.

Also, the BLS inflation metric is not showing any major sign of slowing down.

This means Powell could continue the hawkish tone.

Along with that, Trump has called for new tariffs this month, which could push the Fed to be more hawkish.

So if Powell leans more towards hawkishness, be ready for more bart formation.

3) Tesla, Meta, and Microsoft earnings.

These stocks control the stock market sentiment. If they miss, the market could dump. If they beat, we can see a relief rally.

Their earnings will happen during the FOMC meeting day, which could add even more volatility to the markets.

4) US PPI inflation data on Thursday.

This tells the Fed how hot inflation still is.

Hot PPI means no rate cuts.
No rate cuts means no liquidity.
No liquidity means pressure on crypto.

On the same day, Apple will also report its earnings.

If the earning weakens, the whole market feels it.

5) And after that, Friday will come, which is the deadline for the US government shutdown.

Last time this happened, the crypto market experienced a brutal crash.

This was because liquidity was drained from markets.

Now the situation is even worse, and a shutdown could be devastating.

So in 72 hours we get:
• Trump speech
• Fed decision + Powell speech
• Tesla, Meta, and Microsoft earnings
• PPI inflation
• Apple earnings
• US government Shutdown deadline

If any of these goes against the market, red candles will be all over again.

[Stas T. Serfes @StasTaksStocks]

It is VITALLY important that you know this if you own ANY crypto at all!

Get ready for volatile weeks ahead (rough ride ahead of us)...

[Crypto Rover @cryptorover]

🚨BIG WARNING: THE BIGGEST THREAT TO CRYPTO IS BACK.

The probability of a US government shutdown by January 31 has exploded to nearly 80%.

Just a day ago, it was only around 10%-15%.

And this is a serious liquidity risk for crypto.

Democrats have made it clear they will block the spending bill unless key DHS funding provisions are removed, and Republicans are not backing down, which means a shutdown is now a real possibility.

And here is the dangerous part:
The debt ceiling has already been raised to $41.1 trillion.

That means politicians can afford to fight longer without instantly breaking government operations, which actually increases the chance of a shutdown.

But if that's the case, why would crypto suffer?

When a shutdown starts, the US Treasury usually rebuilds its Treasury General Account (TGA). To do that, it pulls money out of financial markets.

Last time this happened, the TGA increased by about $220 billion. That was a $220B liquidity drain from markets, and crypto cannot handle that.

Last shutdown cycle:
• Markets pumped for a short time
• Liquidity dried up
• Then crypto collapsed
• BTC and ETH dropped 20%-25%
• Altcoins dropped much more

And one of the biggest factors behind this was the liquidity crisis.

This time, the setup is even worse.

• Liquidity is already thin.
• Market confidence is already weak.
• Institutions are mostly in stocks and gold.
• Volatility is already high

Crypto is already swinging violently on small flows.

A shutdown-driven liquidity drain could be devastating and result in an even more brutal dump.

[Stas T. Serfes @StasTaksStocks]

Going to be a helluva week! Buckle up!

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Buckle up for a huge week ahead:

1. Markets React to 100% Canada Tariff Threat - Tonight

2. Markets React to 75% Chance of Govt Shutdown - Tonight

3. January Consumer Confidence data - Tuesday

4. Fed Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference - Wednesday

5. Microsoft, Meta, Tesla Report Earnings - Wednesday

6. Apple Reports Earnings - Thursday

7. December PPI Inflation data - Friday

Prepare for significant volatility this week.

[Stas T. Serfes @StasTaksStocks]

Do you prefer receiving dividends or selling options for extra income within your portfolio?🤔

I’ll go first - options ALL DAY!

[Stas T. Serfes @StasTaksStocks]

Saving your way to a million?

Nearly impossible for most people.

Investing in the stock market, earning 10% annually, and letting compound interest do the heavy lifting?

That’s how real wealth is built.

[Stas T. Serfes @StasTaksStocks]

The earlier you start investing the better!

The best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago, the second best time is now!

Take advantage of compound interest!📈

[Stas T. Serfes @StasTaksStocks]

GRAND SLAM earnings for $NVDA and the stock’s down!📉

Make it make sense!

Who’s buying more here?

[Stas T. Serfes @StasTaksStocks]

It’s almost that time‼️

What are your thoughts on $NVDA earnings?

[Stas T. Serfes @StasTaksStocks]

Are you buying the SpaceX IPO?🤔

[Stas T. Serfes @StasTaksStocks]

Nvidia $NVDA to $300 in the next 12 months!?

The highest 12 month target on Wall Street is $380!🤯

[Stas T. Serfes @StasTaksStocks]

Anyone buying the $MU dip today?

Any other stocks?🤔

[Stas T. Serfes @StasTaksStocks]

What’s the LAST stock you would sell in your portfolio?

[Christian Angermayer @C_Angermayer]

Boom 🚀

$ROKU becomes the North American streaming home for the inaugural @enhanced_games - part of Enhanced Group $ENHA - airing live on May 24 at 9pm EST / 6pm PST.

This gives both the Enhanced Games sporting event and the “Live Enhanced” telehealth platform unprecedented reach and visibility.

Roku now serves more than 90 million streaming households globally and reaches nearly half of all U.S. broadband households.

And this is just the beginning.

Additional global broadcast partners for the Enhanced Games will be announced soon.

https://t.co/1HGmzXLXYw

[Stas T. Serfes @StasTaksStocks]

$MU hit OVER $800 in the overnight market!😅

[Stas T. Serfes @StasTaksStocks]

Happy Friday!! Hope you all had a great week.

What were some trades you made this week?🤔