Statesman

Roaming the footnotes.

[Statesman @Stated_intent]

@MrBDelany @corry_wang Well said

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@taobanker Many “good reasons” for a bid of KDP ex-coffee, making it hard to pass on especially if Anheuser shows interest.

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Can’t wait for “chemicals are the new semis” or whatever horseshit comes next

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@TMTLongShort @rev_cap He is the palm reader of macro forecasting.

[Statesman @Stated_intent]

“Banks don't make bad loans in bad times; they make bad loans in good times."

- William J. McDonough (President & CEO NY Fed 1993 - 2003), Bank Investing: A Practitioner's Field Guide

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@chipperPat Sounds like a commercial vehicle supplier that’s sandbagging guidance

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@eriksen_tim Bargain purchasing? I’m pretty sure the difference between fair value and BV of assets is reported as gain post acquisition for the acquiror

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@freecathflow Who is the cat, the investor or the market?

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How likely is it that the 700th (I lost count) Carvana short report sparks a collapse? I honestly saw the news and thought nothing of it

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@compoundpapi How many successful campaigns before he writes a book?

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Found a beer in the fridge. I will remember this day forever.

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@taobanker Nomad (Martin Franklin SPAC) and John Bean (JBTM), which provides food prep/processing/servicing equipment. Latter’s more of a compounder bro name, former’s more value trap-y

[Statesman @Stated_intent]

@ContrarianCurse Fast casual and trucking (former’s ripping YTD)

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Frankly, I just assumed the BoD didnt even try. That said, let’s say it did. Well, a buyer may see value in liabilities, especially if AP offers to commit capital (and minimize counterparty risk), assuming recoveries exceed indemnity and defense expenses. Your left with a cash shell down the road. Now, where’s this capital coming from? Divestiture, improving order book, etc. So, timing may now work in its favor. Is this what’s actually transpiring? I doubt it—probably an activist seeing an optically “cheap” name with several ways to win (sale/buybacks/???).

Seems you know the business. What’s your take—hidden beneficiary of AI/space? Opportunity for cost cutting? Legit good asset(s)?

[Statesman @Stated_intent]

Fries not attaching?

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Not to say I think Lamb’s attractive here (no opinion on the name)

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@DannyOcean555 A name this bad should trip a covenant.

That said, exceptions include Claritev, formerly Multiplan, which is up +100% and TruBridge, formerly CPSI, which is up almost 3x.

[Statesman @Stated_intent]

Market meltdown? I'm more nervous about my Spotify 2025 Wrapped.

[Statesman @Stated_intent]

Ex: “NVDA’s P/E is 30x 2026E estimates.” Your conviction is from the sell side? The same people that didn’t see the inflection in 2023 (many of whom you all happily shit on). Another is Applovin, a company with spectacular margins. Well, are margins sustainable (is Unity taking share or incremental e-commerce investments a drag)? How about the validity of investigations?

[Statesman @Stated_intent]

What’s to stop the market from extending beyond levels seen during 2000? Why is 2000 the supposed limit?

Bubbles are driven by irrational behavior which is unpredictable. Therefore, how can someone forecast the level a bubble does or does not reach? Why can't the Mag7 see P/Es of 200x instead of the dotcom peak of 80x?

There needs to be a fundamental basis for making a prediction. If AI's ROI justifies a P/E greater than 50x, 70x, 200x, etc., then make that argument. Don't just say, "my P/E estimate is based on the unpredictable because we're in unpredictable times."

[Statesman @Stated_intent]

@tierrapartners I’m surprised as well—also curious about average age, length of 1st marriages and number of kids. This’ll help with the drunk uncle debate at Thanksgiving/Christmas lol