To me the answer is simple
When PC has Bryce Hopkins, the expectations are generally met.
When PC does not have Bryce Hopkins, there should not be expectations.
This team, and this roster, was built with - and for - Bryce Hopkins.
@DanJalbert1 I know the aesthetics weren’t great, but the last 8 mins vs DePaul was otherworldly. They finished that game with a +15 AdjEff which is solidly in the top 50. The URI game was a tale of two halves. You have a point, but I’d argue the truth is somewhere in the middle.
@dlpotatofarm This pejorative to the A10. Rhode Island and St Bonaventure are good, they are top 100 teams and would beat many HM teams without their best player.
@dlpotatofarm There are probably less than 5 teams in any given season that could lose their best player and still tread water. there are countless examples.
Providence vs St Bonaventure
10,000 simulations using AdjEff in games with Bryce Hopkins
Average Score
Providence 75 (-4.5 o/u 144.5)
Bonaventure 70
Providence wins 64.5% of outcomes
#pcbb#GoFriars
@pcbb1917 Here is the math on Kenpom’s game score. He’s got PC at 1.01 ppp and Bona at .99. The issue is that he’s got just a 63 possession game! I estimated 68 possessions.
Providence since Bryce Hopkins
36th in AdjEff (+19 points per 100 possessions)
37th in Wins Above Bubble
+34 spots in the NET (road win!)
Top 25 in SOR and KPI after wins against
BYU (expected win % 35)
DePaul (expected win % 45)
This is an NCAA Tournament Team. Believe.