You always see the argument “if x went back and played in college, how much would they dominate?” across the big four - sincerely tho if Connor McDavid went and played college hockey right now how much would he dominate? He’d score 10 goals a game.
"This is definitely a wakeup call for us. I'm glad it happened early."
Devin Booker after Suns 124-83 loss to Blazers as they trailed by 31 at the end of one.
"Everything went wrong. We have a lot to learn from the tape offensively and defensively. I think they were killing us with their pace, forcing us into tough shots. Playing the deep drop. We knew it coming, but I think their guards did a good job of being active on the ball handler and forcing us into just being hesitant."
Booker 23 points, didn't attempt a 3 (minus-43): "You can always do everything better in a loss like that. Trying to find the flow. We have some work to do and we have some things to learn from." #Suns #RipCity
The best rivalry in college hockey is back tonight as the North Dakota Fighting Sioux are behind enemy lines visiting the Minnesota Golden Goofballs at Marucci Arena in the guts of DinkyTown. It's time to go Gopher hunting but more importantly it's time to go Chin Hunting. I bet that arena will be painted 70%+ green tonight!! There are no fans even close to SIOUX FANS !! @UNDmhockey
The best rivalry in college hockey is back tonight as the North Dakota Fighting Sioux are behind enemy lines visiting the Minnesota Golden Goofballs at Marucci Arena in the guts of DinkyTown. It's time to go Gopher hunting but more importantly it's time to go Chin Hunting. I bet that arena will be painted 70%+ green tonight!! There are no fans even close to SIOUX FANS !! @UNDmhockey
Dinner with an exec/friend at a large national property management company tonight. This person oversees ~150k apartments; access to an insane amount of data.
Current multifamily market in most of the country is worse than S&L, .com bust, or the GFC. Worst they’ve seen.
Class A mostly fine, decent rent growth. However:
- credit scores at class A have gone down meaningfully over the past 3 years.
- more people are paying rent via credit card.
- average bank account balance noticeably lower than even 2 years ago
- class A tenants stretched thin, living beyond their means. 20k comes in, 20k goes out every month.
- starting to see these renters move down a tier
Class B:
- simply too many apartments, we built too much new stuff. Ripple effect is enormous.
- fewer renters tomorrow than today. Same store foot traffic noticeably down year over year. Some markets down 40-50%
- considering dropping rents below $700 a month on some 1beds in major southern markets.
Class C:
- looking at degrading NOI. Rents aren’t growing for a long time, but expenses keep creeping up
- more renters are one missed paycheck away from disaster than they can remember seeing in decades
- tenants aren’t paying rent because they simply don’t have it
- wage growth has not kept up
Lenders:
- some major investment funds, household names, haven’t paid their mortgages in 2-3 years. Banks won’t foreclose because “X is a big client.” Mexican standoff.
- a roof leak gets ignored, becomes water damage, then mold, then a down building. Buildings are rapidly deteriorating as some owners choose cash preservation over funding losses.
- number of pre-foreclosure and REO deals is the highest as a % of total units they can recall.
- data providers know it’s bad, but they’re paid to sell optimism to owners/lenders. So every forecast is “it will probably get a little better next year maybe” and that gets regurgitated at investment committees all over.
I asked “how do you think this ends?”
“Not sure. My gut says slowly then suddenly, and things will get really bad. Been doing this 40 years, you can feel it in the air. But, there’s a chance it’s just a decade of tolerable pain. I’m praying for that.”
As the NBA season begins this week, remember:
26 out of 30 NBA owners are billionaires — getting richer every day.
Meanwhile, the average ticket price to see the Knicks play the Sixers last night cost $1,894.
No. You should not have to be rich to take your kids to a ball game.
What will it take to lure a big tenant to downtown St. Paul: planning, coordination and maybe five years free rent. That's what one prominent real estate investor is offering, leveraging the big discount he got on buying the property to sweeten the deal. https://t.co/ylqW3XITpC
Took me way too long to realize no one gives a fuck how pretty my memos look or how seamless my models work together in excel.
All that matters is the story I can tell within the memo. That I truly understand what I’m presenting and have the narrative to support my thesis.
If you think you're modeling skills are what's going to give you a long term career edge, you are wrong:
> Thousands of hours spent developing the skill
> Clueless nepo interns building crazy models
> Tasks that would take 1hr+ are done in 2 mins
You need to find a new edge
California's Billionaire Tax Act would collect roughly $30 billion. Accounting for lost income taxes from departures, the mean Net Present Value is negative $39 billion, from Benjamin Jaros and Joshua Rauh https://t.co/hoS1OYeXvK