Stephen Alter

I’m for common sense. Everything “woke” or DEI is nonsense. I’m for anyone who’s willing to work hard and develop their God given talents to succeed.

[Cathie Wood @CathieDWood]

The jobs report was a barnburner. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 172,000 versus expectations for 88,000, while prior months were revised higher by 93,000. Wage growth came in at roughly 0.3%.

Yet the market sold off.

In our view, the market is misreading the signal. It is assuming that stronger than expected employment and growth will cause a an acceleration in inflation. History would suggest otherwise. 

Productivity growth is running near 3%, while unit labor costs are hovering around 0.5%. Those are not the hallmarks of an inflationary boom. They are the hallmarks of healthy, productivity-driven growth that will lower inflation.

Meanwhile, the yield curve continues to flatten despite a roughly 55% increase in oil prices year-over-year based on a three month moving average. In past cycles, an energy shock of this magnitude steepened the yield curve when the Federal Reserve was accommodating it. Instead, the bond market appears to be discounting something much more powerful: the deflationary impact of technological innovation, particularly artificial intelligence, which is beginning to increase productivity across broad swaths of the economy.

If tensions with Iran ease and oil prices retreat, we believe inflation could move into negative territory before year-end.

In our view, the Fed made a historic policy error when it raised rates aggressively into what was largely a supply-driven inflation shock in 2022. We do not believe the next generation of monetary policymakers will be eager to repeat that mistake.

Notably, gold peaked on the day Kevin Warsh was appointed. The inflation trade may already be behind us.

If our research is correct, the next phase of this cycle could be characterized by accelerating growth, declining inflation, falling interest rates, and a strengthening U.S. dollar. That combination would create a remarkably supportive backdrop for innovation-led equities and the technologies driving the next productivity boom.

I discuss this framework in greater detail in this month’s episode of In The Know.

[JD Vance @JDVance]

If the fraud rate is really as low as Democrats claim, why are they fighting so hard to hide the data? Why not just work with USDA to audit and validate where the money is going? Their resistance to us going after fraud is part of why these programs ballooned in the first place.

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

Yup

[Stephen Alter @StephenAlter4]

@FBIDirectorKash
People need to be arrested immediately.

[Rasmussen Reports @Rasmussen_Poll]

You would figure the California fraudsters would be some of the best. But letting batches of thousands of LA County ballots get tabulated without a single solitary Spencer Pratt ballot among them means they are not smart, just arrogant.

[Rasmussen Reports @Rasmussen_Poll]

You would figure the California fraudsters would be some of the best. But letting batches of thousands of LA County ballots get tabulated without a single solitary Spencer Pratt ballot among them means they are not smart, just arrogant.

[Stephen Alter @StephenAlter4]

The Democrat party in California just passed a mileage tax on everyone with a car that will cost the average driver $4200 per year.

https://t.co/WbZaaTvFA4

[🇺🇸RealRobert🇺🇸 @Real_RobN]

🚨🚨THIS IS BIG:

President Trump just posted about the cheating in California.

And California is officially under investigation by the U.S. Attorney.

[Catturd ™ @catturd2]

Democrats can’t win unless they cheat.

[Libs of TikTok @libsoftiktok]

Florida counts 10 million+ votes in a matter of hours. How come California takes weeks to count votes??

[Mike Crispi @MikeCrispi]

If Spencer Pratt is knocked out of the runoff on late “mail in ballots”, President Trump should send in the national guard to re-run the LA Mayor election.

This is utterly ridiculous.

[Ron DeSantis @RonDeSantis]

Absurd!

[James O'Keefe @JamesOKeefeIII]

CA Election Fraud: California voter receives another voter’s ballot and names his cat after the alleged voter.

What is going on in California?

[Joe Concha @JoeConchaTV]

Oh come on…

[MJTruthUltra @MJTruthUltra]

Last night, I watched one single election batch of nearly 25,000 votes get distributed to every single LA Mayoral candidate except for Spencer Pratt.

Remeber Wisconsin?
“You’re saying every last vote broke for Biden? — there was not a Trump vote in there— that doesn’t look right— even the bluest city you’re gonna have someone voting for the other party.”

https://t.co/Yh5WUMznmf