Stephen Spratt

DM rates // FX. Opinions my own and do not reflect my employer's position.

[Stephen Spratt @StephenSpratt]

@sunchartist How does it compare Sunny!

[Kit Lowe @kit_lowe]

Australia’s 60 minutes has released a preview of this Sunday’s interview with RBA Assistant Governor (Economic) Sarah Hunter. The interview was pre-recorded on 21 October 2026.
The programme is titled “Rate rise reckoning”. #AusPol for @Scutty
https://t.co/rjWPUvf1tR

[Tim Duy @TimDuy]

Which is another way to say that the Fed isn't anticipated to do enough to meaningfully slow economic activity.

[dMacro/dBS @dMacro_dBS]

How this year feels in macro...

[Stephen Spratt @StephenSpratt]

Once the RBA hikes, it will be 6x G10 rate hikes in Sept.

Outliers hinge mostly on one thing:

"It's going to get harder to maintain ​that stance the longer we have high energy prices," BoE's Bailey, 25 Sept.

BoC's Macklem echoed this view on 2 Sept.

[Stephen Spratt @StephenSpratt]

@aRishisays Well said Rishi!

[Tim Duy @TimDuy]

The Fed has overstated its role in achieving price stability and understated the role of globalization in creating elastic supply. In effect, the Fed had it easy for more that two decades, and that lulled it into a false sense of confidence

[Stephen Spratt @StephenSpratt]

Eurozone PMI hits 41 month high. This series is still one of the best forward indicators for Euro Area growth.

Growth outlook in tact = hike outlook in tact

https://t.co/4WcOz9qCLr

[Stephen Spratt @StephenSpratt]

Fantastic listen

[Steven Sinofsky @stevesi]

Full interview. Need to post the link for the Hardcore Software merch! (kidding)

[Ed Bradford @Fullcarry]

One of the street's fav trades paying off. 5y swap spreads at the widest level since earlier this year

[VKMacro @VKMacro]

“A Japanese government official said that if Japan did not deliver the rate hike being sought by the United States, the issue could develop into a diplomatic problem.”

https://t.co/YLJCN7gLZt

[LongConvexity @LONGCONVEXITY]

Had dinner with a very smart CIO recently everyone and their mother is in this trade.

[Stephen Spratt @StephenSpratt]

BIS review says as bonds have become "cheap" vs swap, RV funds have been happy to step in.

US Treasury ASW longs (long bond vs swap) have risen from $100bn to $300bn in the past year.

https://t.co/qcKN2HwdCx

[Stephen Spratt @StephenSpratt]

Latest Macro Hive conversation with @jturek18 was a great listen, always gets you thinking.

https://t.co/67aQwguwza

[Stephen Spratt @StephenSpratt]

This line really punctuates the various interventions the Treasury has taken so far:

"The best-managed crisiș is the one that never happens."

[Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent @SecScottBessent]

In her latest sciolistic letter to me, @SenWarren made it clear that she knows even less about foreign exchange markets than she does about banking.

What is equally shocking, but not surprising: not a single member of the media mob has a rudimentary-enough level of financial market literacy to spot her remedial error.

To reiterate: under @POTUS, the United States delivers for America’s trusted partners.

For a fuller explanation, I recommend Senator Warren take any entry level course in international finance for her and her staff, or I can personally give her a tutorial on Foreign Exchange for Dummies. Although I am not holding my breath, I hope her next letter will demonstrate that she has learned the difference between a currency purchase and a swap or a loan.

[𝐄𝐟𝐟𝐢𝐜𝐢𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭 𝐇𝐲𝐩𝐞 @EffMktHype]

*BREAKING: Bondistan is opening its borders on 15th September to celebrate Lehman Collapse Day and you're invited to get your visas ready!

The Ultimate Guide to Bondistan 2nd Edition is coming to print!

Do me a favour and spread the word!
More details to follow.

[Dow @mark_dow]

Whatever you think about this yield curve operation from Bessent, it is not QE. No reserves are being created. The good news is anyone trying to call it QE is basically confessing that they don’t understand anything about this issue area and can be crossed off your list of people to listen to.

[Stephen Spratt @StephenSpratt]

Another shock to come in this new world of rolling shocks then... next up: food prices

[Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 @C_Barraud]

🇪🇺 #ECB CHIEF ECONOMIST PHILIP LANE SPEAKS ON IRELAND'S RTE - BBG
*LANE: INFLATION TO HOVER AROUND 3% LEVEL FOR REST OF YEAR
*LANE: REALLY UNCERTAIN SITUATION
*LANE: INFLATION DEPENDS ON ENERGY PRICES
*LANE: RIGHT NOW FOOD INFLATION IS RELATIVELY LOW
*LANE: WEATHER EVENTS CREATE UPWARD PRESSURE ON INFLATION
*LANE: WEATHER EVENTS TO BE SEEN MOSTLY IN 2027
*LANE: FOOD INFLATION TO BE A KEY INFLATION DRIVER IN 2027
*LANE: EUROPEAN ECONOMY IS GROWING
*LANE: EUROPEAN ECONOMIC GROWTH NOT TOO BAD