Steve

Narrative, turnaround, and commodities enthusiast. Risk Manager by trade, degen by choice.

Nothing I post is to be considered financial advice - DYODD

[Steve @StevenShadduck]

@rev_cap On record saying he views balance sheet rolloff as hikes - that would come first.

[Eliant Capital @eliant_capital]

So Warsh was received as hawkish because stocks closed red at the market close, but he’s now being seen as dovish since stocks are ripping in the overnight session, got it.

[Steve @StevenShadduck]

@DOMOCAPITAL That option roll can't come fast enough

[Robin Mayes @Robin25461631]

#AXL $AXL.V @corp_arrow Outstanding RNS today. This step out well was 2km across the Icaco field from the Icaco 1 ,the discovery well.
Icaco 1 is producing from the C7
Icaco 2 had 74 feet of net pay in the Ubaque and they chose to test and produce from this formation...vertical well 830 bopd gross, 1% water cut....outstanding result

They have gone straight to a horizontal well next, IC-4HZ, exploiting the very thick Ubaque formation.
And they are doubling the cellars on the pad, building another 5.

Icaco is looking very big and I think it will end up with 10 to 20 development wells. The drilling inventory stretches out for many years. We should see a reserves update in a couple of months. It will read well.

Cash is growing, a couple of wells shut in waiting workovers, production remains strong at circa 5000 bopd, prices remain high at $97.48 per boe

Election results may help unlock the very laboured license extension process.

A lot to like on this woefully under valued producer.
https://t.co/J1oYWU5AOx

[Steve @StevenShadduck]

@AncientSion @KNLCBD Immediately thought "I bet he tells everyone he's up BIG"

[Steve @StevenShadduck]

$snwv

Q2 guidance cut with some negative language on clinic churn and systems resale.

Consumables very strong, showing demand/use increasing.

Q3/4 are their strongest quarters of the year - going to be patient and keep size small here.

[Steve @StevenShadduck]

Finally was able to get a Self-directed Brokerage within my 401k.

Instead of crappy mutual funds with vague mandates I'm now proudly 50/50 split between $colo and $ewz / $ewzs

Viva america del sur

[Steve @StevenShadduck]

$surg.v

Started a position last week, and added to it today. The economics on the PFS coming this quarter *should* be spectacular.

The infrastructure around the site (road, hydro electric, etc) makes this an obvious mine.

Who builds it is the more interesting conversation.

[Yellow Lab Life Capital @YellowLabLife]

There is a lot of detail to go though here but the main takeaway for the Koala is Berg is a multi-decade ~140kt CuEq copper project with a 24-36% after-tax IRR and 2-3 yr payback assuming:

2Q 2026 costs
Prices somewhere between $4.75/lb and spot (~$6+/lb) on copper

In a consensus first world jurisdiction

With quotes provided by two First Nations groups relevant to Berg and the Premier of BC (who isn’t exactly considered Mr “I love mining”)

With an after-tax NAV of C$4.6-9.4 billion, today the market cap is <c$300mm

In the koala’s opinion, true NAV somewhere in the middle of that range (no major copper producer is being priced like it’s going below $5/lb)

If we double the share price to c$1.50 where the warrants are accelerated, it’s only ~c$650mm

So it’s a double just to get to 0.1x P/NAV

When looking at comparable projects, why shouldn’t this trade at 0.2-0.3x P/NAV?

Now you see why Surge Copper $SURG.V has been the benchmark for every copper developer and producer in the eucalyptus tree for the past 13 months since the updated metallurgical work was released

Biggest mistake this year so far was not taking more of that February financing

1/2

[Christian Kargl-Simard @AdventusCEO]

$SURG.V Surge Copper. Our Berg PFS 24% after tax IRR amongst the strongest of all undeveloped major copper projects in the world. See Eby and First Nations quotes. We will make this a leading nation building project in Canada, and lead copper project.
https://t.co/IHPVjplhk1

[Tin Price Bot @tinbot2]

#Tin price: $55,345 (+$1,365)
3:02am London https://t.co/LxP6Fn5ieY

[Steve @StevenShadduck]

@Modustollens4 https://t.co/PnPVDyRqjU

I'm oversized on Arrow

I think the simple move is long COLO, as you get resources moving and an election story.

I think ET is a buy and forget here.

[Steve @StevenShadduck]

2 months later, spot $20 lower, yet Sept holding steady.

My horse is $axl.v, you could have bought on any headline over the last 3 months and still been green here.

The curve will be resilient, and Arrow will outperform oil.

[Steve @StevenShadduck]

I watch September as the key month - currently trading under the 5yr seasonally adjusted avg contract.

People have been generally wrong this whole time (both directions) - this will track closer to $80-85, and many quality producers will print 💰 through year end.

[Steve @StevenShadduck]

I started saying Sept $70's was "hopium" on 4/4.

Specifically this timeline because doing the math on inventories and exports it's when "shit hits the fan" if flows are restricted.

The world will refill, new SPR's come, and a new price paradigm will stick for months.

[Drop Site @DropSiteNews]

Chevron CEO Mike Wirth says the global energy market now may be able to absorb the Strait of Hormuz disruption until around Labor Day (early September).

He says lower Chinese demand, ongoing inventory drawdowns, and limited “dark” tanker transits through the strait, often at night with transponders off and done with U.S. military support, have bought the market time.

Wirth however suggests actual flows from Hormuz may be closer to 3 million barrels a day, well below the 7 million claimed by the Trump administration.

[Steve @StevenShadduck]

And to imagine some people are holding cash

[Don Johnson @DonMiami3]

If this is price stability imagine what price instability will look like 🤣

Wheel barrows of $250 Trump bills at the grocery store

[Steve @StevenShadduck]

This is killing me right now 🤣😂

#usmnt

[Steve @StevenShadduck]

@blondesnmoney No see, I rotated my cumrocket gainz to peanutcoin which when it mooned became a core dogwifhat position that my grandchildren will thank me for every day of their lives!

[Steve @StevenShadduck]

Finally, brothers, rejoice. Aim for restoration, comfort one another, agree with one another, live in peace; and the God of love and peace will be with you.

[Steve @StevenShadduck]

And yes I did buy more this morning.

[Steve @StevenShadduck]

Literally top ticked - incredible 🤣

[Steve @StevenShadduck]

All that April buying looking really nice in the account right now.

$surg.v