SILVER - I'm only going to say this once here (website members are getting much more detailed guidance as this unfolds). We are down over 50% and back below $60. In terms of PRICE alone, anything below $60 is a reasonable long-term (investing & stacking) place to add/initiate new positions, as long as you accept that further downside, & considerably more TIME, may be required before we get a meaningful, sustained upside move to give us new all-time highs. Traders need to wait for a base to form, followed by a confirmed upside breakout, then set a stop-loss and a profit limit (target). ZERO EMOTION.
Throughout history, investors have repeatedly become enraptured by specific themes during euphoric market periods, often turning hostile toward skeptics who challenge that narrative.
This would be considered sophisticated high end macrofinance.
It is based on one phrase:
“Hawkish Fed”. Meaning they will raise interest rates to fight rising inflation.
This is just impossible. The rise in the cost on financing US govt debt would not be sustainable.
Axios and Trump did a good job lowering oil prices, but China did the heavy lifting.
- China's oil imports are down 5mbpd
- That's an 8-year low and 30% lower than pre-Iran war levels
To put that into perspective, that's the equivalent of taking out India, the world's 3rd biggest oil importer, without any major economic suffering.
Warsh and Bessent in their private breakfast discussion.
Scott: OK Kevin, we both know you have to cut rates and print but before you do let's change the rules by going no guidance, let the other bozos have hawkish dot plots and that way we will put the fear of god in those "debasement trade" players by hammering Bitcoin, gold and silver. That way when you do the Big Print it will come off a lower level.
Kevin: sounds good to me Scott.
Scott: oh and by the way I am going to make a statement about why we can have a strong dollar and lower rates. (LL: big tell, why would he have said lower rates if that was not the plan?) Get that Task Force going on the new inflation measurements and AI productivity boost.
Kevin: Roger that Scott. Soros taught you well.
1% of people account for 63% of all violent crimes.
0.2% of people ever commit murder, and **67% of all murders**are committed by people with prior arrests
You can literally just fix crime by not tolerating people who show a history of being destructive to society.
My desk doesn't have an R&R for equities.
However, I've spent a long time thinking about how to get the maximum possible exposure to the current global FOMO surrounding semiconductors and AI from within an FICC desk.
Thanks to a great friend, I was able to develop a strong intuition regarding the commodities I had in mind, such as Natural Gas, Uranium, and Copper.
After that, I needed to dive deeper into the details, so I read various analytical reports from multiple investment banks. I also read couple of books and watched quite a lot of YouTube videos.
Then, I stumbled upon this article, and it served as the strongest motivation for my decision to buy U3O8 futures options. I highly recommend giving it a read.
For weeks the sharpest people I read have been at war over one number: does crude hit tank bottoms or not. Barrels, barrels, barrels.
@citrini went into the strait and showed us the water. Respect. But the water was never the story.
Ninety percent of the traffic left Hormuz. The cargo, the freight, the risk, the rent, all of it went somewhere. Almost nobody is looking at where.
So the Strategist has gone to Oman. Onshore. The land corridors, the customs houses, the people actually repricing this in real time.
Now that I'm here: what do you want me to find out? What would you ask the people moving the trade? Drop it below. The best questions are coming with me.
Private equity is aggressively investing in personal injury firms, offering their lawyers a cut of the wealth generated by the deals. https://t.co/wcSX83Fpqe
Epic look inside the machine eating the pension system.
Private equity didn’t just buy insurers. It found the dullest, safest balance sheet in American finance — annuities, pensions, life insurance — and turned it into "permanent capital" they control.
https://t.co/YQX4oIHBXc