Stoa Capital

Global long-only investments. Not investment advice.

[Stoa Capital @StoaCap]

@internpierre @capital_farming It is, in fact, bullish.

[Stoa Capital @StoaCap]

@internpierre Tell me you know nothing about Ferrari without telling me you know nothing about Ferrari.

[Stoa Capital @StoaCap]

@OosGergVer @xdNiBoR @SantoroSystems My numbers are from the company, so there’s nothing really to debate other than whether the planned C2 expansion is active or not between Q1 and now.

[Stoa Capital @StoaCap]

@OosGergVer @xdNiBoR @SantoroSystems I’m sorry but you’re wrong already in the first two points. The S-1 does not say 220k H100. It says they brought online 100k in 122 days. The company has said they had 150k H100 total in C1.

The S-1 literally says they ended 2025 with 0.8 GW.

[Stoa Capital @StoaCap]

@RihardJarc This feels more like Elon trying to boost growth, and more important profitability, in order to ensure S&P inclusion (now that they have refused to lower the entry standards).

[Stoa Capital @StoaCap]

@xdNiBoR @SantoroSystems Correct, Colossus 2 is currently 220k (50/50 GB200/GB300). Anthropic has all of C1 + 95k of C2 GB200s. The implied Google deal of 110k GPUs suggests they get 15k GB200 + 95k GB300. This leaves xAI with 15k active GB300 + the 330k planned expansion of Colossus 2.

[Stoa Capital @StoaCap]

@OosGergVer @xdNiBoR @SantoroSystems The colossus compute numbers are from the company. So not sure what you’re suggesting, unless you’re referring to non-colossus compute.

[Stoa Capital @StoaCap]

@xdNiBoR @SantoroSystems I meant GB300s. It implies they have no GB200s available after this Google deal.

This is based on information from the company, so if you can show otherwise I’d love to see it?

[Stoa Capital @StoaCap]

@jaminball I dont think so. Colossus 1 had 150k h100, 50k H200, 30k GB200. Colossus 2, i think, had 110k GB200, 110k GB300, and 220k planned GB300 for this year.

This suggests Google is using 15k GB200 and 95k GB300, with xAI (really Cursor) left with only 15k GB300 + future capacity.

[Stoa Capital @StoaCap]

@xdNiBoR @SantoroSystems With the Google deal, Colossus 1 and 2 only have roughly 15k GB200s available, which is likely being dedicated to Cursor.

There is a planned 220k GB300 in the works for C2, but not sure if that's active yet.

[Stoa Capital @StoaCap]

@riddle245 @evrgn11112231 Most of internal Launch costs are capitalized in the connectivity business. The non-consumable costs of those launches stay in launch, but it’s a small portion, and they do not recognize inter-segment revenue. They charge a big premium for launch relative to their marginal cost.

[Stoa Capital @StoaCap]

@thomasrice_au @Oracleof0maha @Larryjamieson_ What foundational model? I really do not think today’s models (up to opus 4.8) are capable of delivering the type of analysis that can be relied upon to this degree.

[Stoa Capital @StoaCap]

@PythiaR Having the right partner in life is really the game changer. It makes every other decision and challenge in life more manageable.

[Stoa Capital @StoaCap]

This is amazing

[Jukan @jukan05]

TSMC CEO’s remarks to TSMC employees regarding bonuses

Q: Why are engineers taking a pay cut (smaller bonus) while VPs and above are getting stock — effectively a raise? A: I'll have to go back and look into the relationship between the two.
Q: The articles of incorporation stipulate that profit-sharing must be no less than 1%. If the company keeps cutting it down toward 1%, can the articles be amended to protect employee rights? A: No.

Q: Last time, the compensation restructuring was "cut the bonus, raise base salary." This time you're cutting the bonus again — will base salaries go up? A: Future raises will be larger for lower job grades and smaller for higher ones.
Q: Is there a ceiling on compensation? A: There is no ceiling.

Q: (The questioner's logic was unclear. The gist was questioning whether overexpansion of fabs and headcount is diluting the bonus pool.)
Q: The bonus isn't increasing with EPS, but you mentioned earlier that the employee birth rate is 5x Taiwan's average. That doesn't add up. Shouldn't the company follow the government's lead and have the company raise the kids? A: Not possible.

Q: Rather than putting that money into green energy investments, why not pay it out to employees, or at least restrict it to charitable donations? A: Not possible.
Q: Even in downturns, the money doesn't get returned to employees. Wouldn't it be better to spend it on improving company benefits? A: The money doesn't get redistributed that way.

Q: Since you're developing AI, can we use fewer people and pay out more in bonuses? A: I'm working on it.

Q: Can we spend more on software and hardware equipment? A: Yes.
Q: Will ETE (equipment-related roles) get raises? A: I'll go back and check. They should be increasing.

Q: You said you can't keep sustaining 1.3x growth — is that because you're seeing some operational red flags down the road? A: There are no red flags.
(Management interjects) Complains that other companies' stocks are pumping for no good reason, and that TSMC's stock is severely undervalued. 95% of the world's AI chips are made at TSMC — please keep up the good work, everyone.

Q: Elon Musk is offering 2x salary to poach our people. Aren't you worried? A: First, I'm not worried. Second, do you really believe Musk? Do you believe you can smoke cigars like he does?
Q: Anything on the financials going forward? A: We're considering continuing to increase the dividend.

Q: Looking at the Samsung strike, TSMC's profit-sharing ratio has already dropped to 10%. Can you guarantee that at least 10% will continue to be distributed to employees going forward? A: No. The DRAM industry "earns in one year and lives off it for ten" — it's a different industry, not comparable.
Q: Do you support employees forming a union? A: If a union is formed, management has to spend a lot of energy dealing with it, so I don't encourage it. You're already getting this much in bonuses — why would you want a union?

Q: What if business turns south in the future? A: That's not a scenario we're assuming. But if the global economy really did collapse, management would take care of its people.

[Stoa Capital @StoaCap]

@ContrarianCurse @blondesnmoney Don’t hate on my WCN

[Stoa Capital @StoaCap]

This feels like the $GOOG “search is dead” moment for $META

[a16z @a16z]

Meta's DAUs just dipped for the first time since 2021

More charts: https://t.co/2IoX6EtHav

[Stoa Capital @StoaCap]

Exited $GOOG and used proceeds to add to $META position. Exited $KLAC. Maintaining $ASML size. $TSM remains largest position with Meta moving into second. Nothing special on the stories here, just getting comfort around valuations.

[Stoa Capital @StoaCap]

Top?

[Dylan Patel @dylan522p]

3 hr notice I had over 50 people come to the coffee shop incl a guy who brought his GPU for me to sign.
Crazy!

[Stoa Capital @StoaCap]

@evrgn11112231 I finally agree with you and will be buying more meta

[Stoa Capital @StoaCap]

@LostFundamental This seems to be missing enterprise, maritime, and aviation, which are much higher asp/arpu