Sultan Santis

Conservative. Believer in liberty, Almighty God, and small government. Truster in polls and God’s plan. Lover of Buc-ee’s. Texan. Catholic 🇻🇦✝️

[Maricopa County Recorder Justin Heap @azjustinheap]

EARLY VOTING UPDATE:
Today, we received approximately 80,000 early ballot packets. All packets were processed, and signature verification was completed by 2:00 p.m., breaking our previous record!

We continue to see higher daily voter turnout at our early voting locations compared to previous elections.

Now that the Recorder’s early voting staff are informing voters of their options, more than 80% of voters bringing in their green early ballot envelopes are choosing to have them ID-verified and stamped. This is a dramatic increase from the Primary and clear evidence that voters welcome this new option.

HAPPY VOTING!

[Mark Teixeira @teixeiramark25]

Enjoyed visiting with the Canyon Lake Republican Women last night!

We discussed protecting taxpayers, tackling the national debt, defending election integrity, and putting TX-21 first.

They’re fired up and ready for early voting to begin Monday!

[Rod Blagojevich @realBlagojevich]

$10 billion social service fraud in Minnesota. The Gov & Lt Gov asleep at the switch & taxpayers got ripped off. The Lt Gov is the Dem candidate for Senator. Michele Tafoya is an appealing candidate. If Republican voters turnout, Tafoya wins.

[Pat Garofalo 🇺🇸 @PatGarofalo]

In MN, Trump helped GOP in some areas but hurt GOP in others. Cool thing about Demuth and Tafoya is they help GOP everywhere. All GOP candidates running in MN are being strengthened by their campaigns.

I hope future GOP candidates campaign like both Lisa and Michele are doing.

[David D. Chapman @DavidD_Chapman]

The Texas Senate RCP Aggregate.
The YouGov & NYT polls are Talarico +6 which is insane.
That would be Talarico by 600,000 votes. Not gonna happen.

If you remove those polls from the Aggregate, you get
🟦 Talarico 47.6% (+1.6)
🟥 Paxton 46%

[Adam @Adam125890]

I can testify how effective @GregAbbott_TX ground game is.
He has volunteers across the state making sure Republicans turnout, knocking on doors and informing them about the upcoming elections.
Most importantly they emphasize voting RED across the entire ticket top to bottom

[Sultan Santis @SultanSantis]

@ELehmannTV Ashby Aaron Lehmann. Do the full name.

[Rick Jackson @RickJacksonGA]

I’ve spent my career building organizations, assembling strong organizations, creating jobs, and solving hard problems. I’ll do the same as governor. I will wake up every single day and fight for you.

THANK YOU, Jesup! Great crowd this morning.

Early voting continues today. Make a plan and VOTE: https://t.co/YWvOq6RDM8

[Dorothy Harpe @dharpe45]

#GoodMorningGeorgia: We got 19 days left to make a decision about Voting . I recommend you go vote for the Republicans Party @RickJacksonGA @MikeCollinsGA
@DolezalForGA Please Do Because We Want To Win Big For Georgia.

[Jeremy Hughes @jeremybhughes]

New 15k Mail Drop

Total Statewide: D+5 on mail ballots.

For perspective, this lead should be D+20.

Honestly at this point it's too good to be true, need to get through the first weekend of EV.

[Prowler @derzum_]

Under Trump, immigration courts are ruling in favor of mass deportations.

Even at the Concord court in California, relief granted to aliens with a request has cratered from 30% to 2%. Removal orders have more than tripled this year, hitting an all-time high in August.

[Sultan Santis @SultanSantis]

@ArmedRotberg @waprog Ultimately, the libertarian party’s whole purpose is stealing votes from Reps and getting maximum percent of 3%.

[Sultan Santis @SultanSantis]

@mbaharaeen Also depends on if young voters show up or not. They seem checked out now. Both political parties have a lot of hate against them and low approval ratings.

[Sultan Santis @SultanSantis]

@mbaharaeen The issue is that it will be state by state. Candidate by candidate. Debate by debate. Voter by voter. Virginia, Maryland, Texas, and other states like Kansas will have blue waves, but states like Florida, Ohio, Nevada, New York, and Minnesota won’t really have blue waves.

[Sultan Santis @SultanSantis]

RT @petebray: Clark is the story in Nevada’s early mail numbers. GOP share in the Democratic stronghold is about 5 points above early ’22/‘…

[Seth Keshel @RealSKeshel]

GA Turnout Update, 10/15

These are the Top 20 Counties sorted by % of 2024 presidential vote cast for 2026.

16 of the top 20 remain Trump-won from yesterday, but rankings are shuffling (right three columns).

Clayton is doing the most work of the ATL Dem machine pound by pound, but has fallen in the rankings relative to the Top 7. Fulton and DeKalb remain inside the Top 30, but outside of the Top 20. Cobb treading water, Gwinnett at 90th.

The densely populated red suburbs are treading water, also. This electorate looks like one that will elect Jackson governor, and reelect Ossoff. The only way Collins can knock him off is if the red rurals have as close to presidential turnout as possible. They are really lagging as of now.

9 R and 5 D House seats. Similar outcome to 2022 looking at things now. If turnout craters for ATL, then more is possible.

[petebray @petebray]

Stunning early numbers in Clark County, NV: GOP share is 31% of nearly 20,000 accepted ballots. In the ’22/‘24 archives, it peaked at 26%/27% once pools topped 10,000. Different processing stages, but quite a start. Let’s see if it holds.

[CA ET Nerd @earlyvotedata]

Georgia demographic turnout Update 10/15:

Total Votes: 161,729
White %: 53.10%
Black %: 30.80%
Age under 30 %: 5.1%

Younger voters did increase towards the end of today, something to note. Still very low but as I always say: small % still mean something.

Seems like Black % is following trends of prior years, but started off really high. What Dems will want to see is for the overall trend to decline but slowly, not drop off quickly over the next week.

[🌲🏛️📓Mr. Remote🍣🌲🌲 @TheKeplarHermit]

I have now done my part for a second time today.
NC Mecklenburg 🟥+1
Red up and down the ballot, abstention in every race in which no Republican was running.

[Rick Jackson @RickJacksonGA]

Georgia’s outdoors are one of our greatest assets, and it should be easier for Georgians to experience them, whether it’s hunting, fishing, or hiking. That’s what I’ll do as governor.

THANK YOU to everyone who joined our Sportsmen for Jackson lunch today!