The World Bank board approved Ajay Banga as its next president, putting the former Mastercard CEO in charge of a bank overhaul intended to expand lending capacity and fight climate change https://t.co/PPj9QvfjHv
Fed funds rate is 70 basis points above the 2-year Treasury yield
This has systematically resulted in the unemployment rate moving higher
Except in 1998
Copper/Gold ratio is flashing a warning sign
The ratio has been moving down, while the market is moving higher
Last time this happened, it ended with the market declining rapidly
@fernandowavesfx I think so, because last month it closed below 1983 and 1970 as a resistance of TF month. moreover the last two weeks it closed below 1980
Everyone thinks the Fed is going to pivot soon.
But what they don't realize is that the majority of declines in bear markets happen AFTER the Fed pivots to a less restrictive policy.
Something to think about 🤔
QT will probably end in early 2023, and not because of recession.
It will stop because the Fed can't shrink its balance sheet past $8trn ($8.9trn now) without introducing problems for the system.
The math is below.
1/
(Fed total assets)