James Benjamin

Background in finance. Keen armchair enthusiast of theoretical physics, non linear dynamics, complex systems and psychology Posts are not investment advice.

[James Benjamin @SuperCycleBear]

What is and what isn't an "edge" in trading?
It is a common trope on #Fintwit that in order to succeed you have to have an "edge" when it comes to trading and investing - but particularly trading.

[James Benjamin @SuperCycleBear]

@dampedspring @choffstein The coin is called HYPE for a reason. One difference is the ability to exit and enter 24/7. The disruptive potential is enormous.

[Dougie Kass @DougKass]

@thestreetpro
The Iran Deal Is a Tragic Failure
* While the price of oil is retreating, the stock futures’ Pavlovian reaction to the deal makes little sense to me
* It is a deal to do a deal... It is pretending to have a deal

The Iranian deal, as announced, is a tragic failure and shows how badly out-negotiated the U.S was.

The major U.S. asset in the negotiations was the blockade yet amazingly it was the first concession the U.S. made. This destroys our negotiating position as Tehran knows that once the blockade ends and the ships routed away, it is highly unlikely that it will ever be reconstituted. In contrast, Iran can reinstate a blockade of Hormuz at any time it wishes and the issue of control and fees was not even conceded by Iran. At a time when the U.S. initially said benefits to Iran would be based on performance, the reverse has occurred. It is the U.S. which must act first. The Iranians demanded the end of the blockade before allowing free passage.

With all the focus on Iran’s nuclear program, it is totally absent in this agreement, no commitments regarding removing the enriched material, no dismantling the enriching infrastructure, no inspections—all to rediscussed later.

There is nothing regarding curtailing extensive missile production.

There are no commitments for Iran to stop supporting resistance groups like Hezbollah and the Houthis. Indeed, Lebanon was included in the plans for cessation of military activity which, in essence, confirms Iran’s commitment to Hezbollah. This restricts Israel’s ability to defend itself and creates enormous pressures for Netanyahu.

This agreement hands the Revolutionary Guards a great victory and cements their governance in Iran. The Iranian people, who we claimed to stand by, have been abandoned. Regime change is gone.

The 60-day negotiating period is meaningless as it can be extended and likely will be. Iran knows that President Trump’s desperate to stop the war despite his bluster and knows he will not take any military action before the midterms. Thus, the big issues, which were the basis of the original strike, will likely go unresolved for a very long time and many never be resolved as Iran loves to play the long game.

The coexistence of this terrible agreement with the spectacle of a cage fight on the White House lawn is hard to take — but the markets apparently feel different and are rejoicing.

BY Doug Kass · Jun 15, 2026, 7:00 AM EDT @SquawkCNBC @andrewrsorkin @beckyquick @joesquawk @saraeisen @TheJudgeCNBC @carlquintanilla @SullyCNBC @cnbcfastmoney @halftime @tomkeene @business @lisaabramowicz1 @annmarie @ferrotv @Convertbond @peterboockvar @guyadami @WhitneyTilson @gnoble79

[James Benjamin @SuperCycleBear]

@DougKass @TheStreetPro Much of the price action is bears capitulating, I think. It beggars belief that more do not see it as the veil to buy time before the mid terms.

[James Benjamin @SuperCycleBear]

@Acyn Would you buy a used car from this guy? Me neither.

[The AI Colony R&D @TheAIColonyRD]

This is the NUDT mosquito drone, a spy UAV built by China's National University of Defense Technology for covert surveillance you can't see coming.

Under 0.3 grams. Wings that flap 500 times a second.

Sensors built for covert surveillance, all packed into a body you'd swat without thinking.

[James Benjamin @SuperCycleBear]

Don't buy bonds. Bonds are bad. M'kay?

[Milk Road @milkroaddaily]

Mike Novogratz: The US has $40T of debt and there's only one way out.

"The only way we deal with that debt is to inflate it away. Period. End of story."

Run 4% inflation while convincing markets you're targeting 2%. Do that for 10 years and you've erased 30% of real debt.

The danger is that people could lose confidence, and 4% becomes 14% or 40% - wiping out debt AND wealth simultaneously.

FT @Scaramucci @Novogratz @AllThingsMkts @SkyBridge.

[James Benjamin @SuperCycleBear]

@allenanalysis Here's the unwritten subtext of the deal. "We need to defuse the drubbing we're on track to having in the mid-terms." In the meantime, we just agree to everything.

[James Benjamin @SuperCycleBear]

@Crowded_Mkt_Rpt The higher the market goes, the less cavalier we should be. That doesn't mean I am bearish, but the case is building.

[James Benjamin @SuperCycleBear]

@SecScottBessent @realDonaldTrump So come December, what will be the spin when the bombs start again?

[James Benjamin @SuperCycleBear]

@EvanAKilgore This deal is about midterms. Bombs return en masse in December. Trump is heinous...

[James Benjamin @SuperCycleBear]

@sarcastic_hedgi @dampedspring 24/7?

[James Benjamin @SuperCycleBear]

@dampedspring Asking good questions

[James Benjamin @SuperCycleBear]

@TrumpDailyPosts MAGA

[James Benjamin @SuperCycleBear]

@implausibleblog I knew I had seen Hegseth somewhere else. You nailed it Idiocracy!

[James Benjamin @SuperCycleBear]

@Crowded_Mkt_Rpt @StockMKTNewz The market is very richly priced but it can become a lot more richly priced!

[James Benjamin @SuperCycleBear]

@21WIRE I think Trump's claim that the "US will be sick of winning" is a spelling mistake.
It's increasingly looking like the US will be sick of 'whining'....

[James Benjamin @SuperCycleBear]

"It wasn’t just a loss, it was an embarrassment that will forever impact the legacy of Donald Trump."

[Brett Erickson @BrettErickson28]

Many people look at the rumored terms of a potential Memorandum of Understanding between the United States and Iran and, correctly, view it as total U.S. defeat.

But that’s misunderstanding the most important victory the U.S. have given Iran:

Safety.

For nearly five decades, the Iran Hawks and Israeli Lobby have been trying to find a President foolish enough to buy their propaganda and attack Iran. For 47 years, they searched, spending their entire careers in the pursuit of war.

Now, they got it… and failed in the most disastrous way anyone could have thought.

It wasn’t just a loss, it was an embarrassment that will forever impact the legacy of Donald Trump.

For the next 250 years, no American President will ever even THINK about attacking Iran again. Not after this failure. Not after this embarrassment. Any person that pitches “attack Iran” will be laughed out of the room.

While Iran will irrefutably exit this conflict in a far stronger strategic position than they entered, that is not the most significant accomplishment they have secured in this War.

The greatest victory for the Iranian regime is not frozen assets. It’s not the Strait of Hormuz.

It’s the assurance of knowing they have embarrassed the United States so thoroughly that no President will attack Iran for centuries.

[CONSTITUTIONAL PATRIOT🇺🇸 @ConstitustionX]

🚨 MIND-BLOWING HYPOCRISY JUST EXPOSED.
Trump is out here popping champagne over a brand new Iran “deal”…
…centered on Iran’s sacred promise that they will NEVER obtain a nuclear weapon.
Sound familiar?
Because ABC’s Jonathan Karl just dropped the bomb: That exact same promise was in the very first paragraph of Obama’s 2015 nuclear deal.
Let that sink in.
Obama makes the deal → Trump rips it up, slaps on “maximum pressure,” starts a war, costs lives and billions…
…only to crawl back and celebrate the exact same core commitment like it’s some historic genius move.
Same promise. Different body count.
History is laughing. The cycle is complete.
What a time to be alive.
🔥 Quote. Repost. Ratio.

[James Benjamin @SuperCycleBear]

@conksresearch Usury is a sin (until the returns are too high to not justify capitulation).

[Santiago Capital @SantiagoAuFund]

Do something that helps the world and you will get rich.

Get rich and then get accused of not doing enough to help the world.