Super Light

[Super Light @SuperLight25]

我同意他的看法，唯一的解决美债过大的方法就是通货膨胀。不管是人为导致的还是其他因素导致的通货膨胀；使得美债相对于GDP比例下降。比如一百年前整个美国的国债，现在看来一个公司就可以还上。当然，这样做会带来其他的问题。

[NinjaTrader Live @NTLiveMedia]

"If the Fed hikes, they're going to lose the long end. If the Fed cuts, they're going to lose the long end."

Here's what @LukeGromen thinks they should do 👇

[Super Light @SuperLight25]

现在的通货膨胀率高，是油价导致的。治病不是要对症么？加息是使得整个经济降温。油价导致通胀升高为什么要整个经济降温来降通胀呢？虽然，利率是Fed的唯一可控工具。那也不能病急乱投医！头疼医脚。最后把整个经济带胯！

要做的就是静静等待油价下降。

[Super Light @SuperLight25]

@TJ_Research 不是说长端会下降么？！没有下降啊！涨了5个基点

[Super Light @SuperLight25]

@qinbafrank 不对，收盘美债2年10年30年都大涨。怎么解释？说好的长端美债下跌呢？！

[Super Light @SuperLight25]

不是说好了如果美联储放鹰，短端国债（2年期国债）上涨，长端（10年期）国债下跌，因为通胀能抑制住了？！现在怎么都上涨！！这帮人说了不算！

[Super Light @SuperLight25]

@TJ_Research 收盘10年期国债上涨5.4bps……不是说好的长端国债会下降的么？！都TM的是骗子

[Super Light @SuperLight25]

@PhyrexNi 美国不需要霍尔姆斯。另外，如果美国的封锁真的管用，伊朗经济会受到极大的限制。

[Super Light @SuperLight25]

@maitian99 也许我被洗脑了，但加拿大制造的东西除了卖给美国，还能卖给谁？中国？加拿大制造绝大部分东西都不可能比中国便宜。加拿大要想发展，只能依赖美国。现在地主家也没余粮了，也不能有空心经济，也要把制造业搬回来，那只能这样了。该拉下脸来拉下脸。兄弟情深管个屁用。

[Super Light @SuperLight25]

@TJ_Research 即使美元信用出现问题，还是要stay in the market。美元贬值，大公司的股价是美元计价，就会对应的大涨，所以对股市长期没有影响。

[Super Light @SuperLight25]

@bboczeng 可以取关了。什么垃圾啊。最近太不正常了

[Super Light @SuperLight25]

@TJ_Research 小逃，这问题我是无法支持你的。加拿大搞不过中国，比如加拿大和中国搞自由贸易，只能大量进口中国产品，加拿大什么东西能比中国便宜，出口到中国？基本上没有！加拿大制造成本也就能干过美国，对美国出口，卡尼想分散出口到中国，太理想化了！也就是开始象征性的进口一些商品做个样子，把你市场打开。

[Super Light @SuperLight25]

@TJ_Research @yao30059829 小逃，这问题我是无法支持你的，加拿大搞不过中国，比如加拿大和中国搞自由贸易，只能大量进口中国产品，加拿大什么东西能比中国便宜出口中国？基本上没有！加拿大成本也就能干过美国，对美国出口，想让
分散出口到中国，太理想化了！

[Super Light @SuperLight25]

2026年7月29日，Marvell Technology与Google签署商业协议，扩大定制半导体合作，产品将服务于Google TPU生态系统，包括AI推理加速器、存储控制器、网络接口控制器、内存接口控制器及近内存计算等。8月18日，Marvell向Google发行认股权证，可按每股206.58美元购买最多约5897万股。约136万股将在首年按季度分批归属，其余股份则与Google采购规模挂钩：从2027财年第三季度至2033财年，每产生5亿美元定制产品收入，即有一批股份归属，共240批。认股权证有效期至2033年8月18日。该安排将Google的采购规模与Marvell股权激励直接绑定，显示双方建立了长期战略合作关系，也意味着Google未来可能成为Marvell定制芯片业务的重要客户和股东。

[Jukan @jukan05]

$MRVL

[Super Light @SuperLight25]

👍

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

US Dept of Treasury is increasing, by at least double, the size of liquidity support buyback operations for longer-dated nominal coupon securities; The current maximum size of $2 billion per operation will be at least $4 billion per operation.

Yields, USDJPY tumbles

Well, that resolves the debate whether Treasury buybacks are "Mini QE" once and for all

[Super Light @SuperLight25]

👍

[Jason Z @JasonZX]

Intel CEO陈立武的这个访谈信息量很大：“...我过去不投资内存，因为它像商品，但现在情况不同了，有很多新技术涌现。我偏爱的一个项目是研究内存的新架构，我聘请了我的好朋友李硕熙(Seok-Hee Lee)他以前掌管SK海力士，所以你大概能猜到我在想什么，我们还没准备好公布。”

[Super Light @SuperLight25]

凭什么 $AMD 跌, $INTC 也要陪着跌！AMD跌Intel应该涨啊！

[Super Light @SuperLight25]

$AMD crushed their Q2 earnings? $INTC 的Q2 earnings才叫crush。为什么AMD跌Intel要陪着跌？以前Intel大跌，AMD都小涨！

[Shay Boloor @StockSavvyShay]

$AMD CRUSHED THEIR Q2 EARNINGS

• Revenue $11.54B vs Est. $11.31B
• EPS $1.66 vs. Est. $1.61
• Data Center Revenue $6.7B (+107% YoY)
• Gross Margin 56% vs. Est. 56%

Q3 Guidance
• Revenue $13.0B vs Est. $12.5B
• Gross Margin 56% vs. Est. 56%

[Leopold Stock Tracker @LeopoldATracker]

THE CITADEL GAME THAT CAUSED LEOPOLD ASCHENBRENNER’S FORCED SALE

> Citadel sees a young man in his early twenties managing a fund worth over $45 billion, nearly twice the size of Bill Ackman’s fund, which has been in operation for 23 years.

> The fund, in just 2 years, has grown from a modest $225 million to over $40 billion, with just 8 employees and no background in asset management. The fastest growing fund in history.

> Citadel sees a weakness in the portfolio ⟶ leverage.

> Citadel knows the thesis is right: AI infrastructure is where the real money is in AI. No matter who wins in the model race, the infrastructure wins.

> Now, this young man is holding billions in these assets.

> Then July 10 came after the $SKHY trade, followed by a major selloff across all AI stocks, with most down more than 30% in 2 weeks between July 10–20.

> Leopold Aschenbrenner’s short positions starts moving up against his direction, causing more losses (he was short on software stocks), with positions worth billions of dollars.

> July 24th, Leopold Aschenbrenner sends a letter to investors calling the selloff a buying opportunity and asks for more money, with that window to be open on August 1st, the same day of his wedding. With good news that the fund is up 439% through June YTD.

Perfect opportunity:

> July 27, Citadel Securities raised a false alarm, saying the Fed is gonna do a surprise rate hike.

> July 28, retail, out of fear, the market sells off after Citadel’s report & Leopold Aschenbrenner tries to raise & borrow more money to avoid a margin call for bleeding options positions. Both long and short positions bleeding.

> July 29, banks’ margin calls began. News people spread fear, the selling continues. Perfect opportunity.

> July 30, Jane Street and other market makers bid, but Citadel’s price is better. Citadel buys the majority of his portfolio for a massive discount.

> 3rd August, Citadel Securities is up more than $3 billion in just 2 days after buying Leopold Aschenbrenner’s Situational Awareness public book.

> Same Monday, 3rd August, Citadel Securities says, “the bull market drivers are intact.”

No AI bubble news, no market top, but buying the majority of the Leopold Aschenbrenner portfolio is the AI bottom and the start of the bull market.

Sad for those who didn’t buy the bottom. Because Citadel, as a market maker, won’t sell those positions anytime soon.

The game is rigged against retail and anyone that offers retail help.

[Super Light @SuperLight25]

今天早晨哪些半导体股票跌了，就说明这些是日本人大量用carry trade买入的股票么？

[Super Light @SuperLight25]

@TJ_Research 我还是看好anthropic破坏微软。现在AI的出现让我认识到软件的护城河是什么，它的护城河会越来越弱，早晚会有公司作出office 365来。这种AI取代微软的话题早晚会回来。