This morning, I liquidated some of my family's portfolio and bought a significant amount of $SHOP and for the first time ever talked to our team at Shopify about the stock price.
$GRAB Rule of 40 Calculation🧵
Yes, I consider $GRAB as an AI Software SuperApp.
Q3 Revenue: $873 million (up 22% YoY).
Q3 Adjusted EBITDA: $136 million (up 51% YoY from $90 million).
Adjusted EBITDA Margin: $136M ÷ $873M ≈ 15.6%.
Quarterly Rule of 40
Rule of 40 = 22% (growth) + 15.6% (margin) = 37.6%.
Annual Rule of 40
TTM Revenue: ~$3.4 billion (up ~21.5% YoY).
Implied TTM Adjusted EBITDA (based on guidance trajectory toward $500M+ for full-year 2025):
Rule of 40 ≈ 21.5% + ~14.7% = ~36.2%
So from negative to now 36-38%. Should be above 40% in Q4 2025. And yes $GRAB Rule of 40 is higher than $UBER, but $GRAB is an AI SuperApp, and it has no comp. Tencent, owner of Wechat is 45-50%, or Wechat alone rule of 40 is estimated to be slightly above 40% for its Pay/Fintech core. $GRAB is a much much younger company than $UBER or @TencentGlobal.
Q2 Q3 executed "Secret Weapon"-Affordability much better than prior, hen we saw accelerated transaction growth of 27% while only 14% MTUs growth. @alexhungate also confirmed DTUs is outpacing MTUs, so at 20% MTUs growth in Q4 is expected. That would mean 33-34% of transactional growth, or above 30% revenue as Tourism is hot in Q4, with more cross-selling.
$GRAB Rule of 40 by 2026 should be inching toward 50% and lean toward 60%+ in 2027. This is going to be improved YoY. Hence Management is pushing GrabFin to breakeven quickly in 6 7 months or sooner, because GrabFin is going to fuel margin expansion as well as revenue growth. I will explain further in the ultimate roadmap to $500B in Dec 2025 for Subscibers and Release it in mid 2026.
And btw, the "Secret Weapon" is keeping monopoly legally, it makes it impossible to make money for new players. Especially when users sign up for GrabUnlimited, most cannot match the fare price due to heavy discount for GrabUnlimited Subscribers.
Not Financial Advice!
Myanmar’s Military Is No Longer in Effective Control of the Country (Thai translation)
"ประเทศเพื่อนบ้านยังคงปฏิบัติเพื่อรักษาการปกครองของกองทัพทหารเหมือนหน่วยงานที่มีอำนาจอธิปไตย พวกเขาเสี่ยงที่จะถูกทิ้งไว้ข้างหลังด้วยเหตุการณ์ต่างๆ" โดย @Kim_Jolliffe at the @Diplomat_APAC👇
It was a great honour to meet his Majesty the King and the Queen Consort at a reception in Buckingham Palace to celebrate the contribution of East and South East Asians to British society, on 1st February 2023.