Michael Hamill

[Michael Hamill @Supertrendai]

@sama @mcuban @rokhanna @BernieSanders @aoc @NYCMayor @TheDemocrats @Pontifex im pro right to try ai medicine given-2020 lancet study-every 8 mins American dies bc they can't afford care-68k yr before @gop health cutsgive legal framework to open an ai clinic-models will get there soon

[Chubby♨️ @kimmonismus]

A few thoughts on the very near future

First of all, what had previously been little more than a rumor has now been confirmed: GPT-5.6 had already been fully trained for two months and was available to selected users in early access. The obvious question is why it was not rolled out earlier.

I do not think this was because OpenAI feared that the model might be overshadowed by Fable 5 or Mythos 5. Instead, OpenAI likely began working with government and regulatory authorities at a very early stage to ensure that the model could be released at all. Even after it had been previewed and announced, it still took some time before it could be rolled out publicly. That said, OpenAI clearly handled the rollout far better than Anthropic, which apparently did not have the same level of cooperation with government and regulatory authorities.

Conversely, however, this also clearly means that future delays and increasingly strict model reviews will probably force us to wait longer for official releases.

The next widely discussed rumor is that, within a few weeks, most likely no more than six, we will see either a preview or even the release of GPT-6. (Andrew Curran @AndrewCurran_ is one of the most reliable sources here on X, so I think that's very realistic.) The model has undergone entirely new pretraining, and the pace of releases is accelerating. The numbers are clear: Frontier labs are releasing more and better models at an increasingly rapid pace. Whereas we once had to wait months, quarters, or even half a year for major new releases, they are now arriving almost weekly.

The latest frontier models may be more efficient in terms of intelligence per token, but they are also being deployed with much larger reasoning budgets. In practice, models such as Fable 5 and GPT-5.6 often consume considerably more tokens during complex or agentic tasks.

This is not necessarily a sign of declining efficiency. Rather, it suggests that improvements in efficiency are being reinvested into deeper reasoning, longer trajectories and more capable agentic behavior. The result is that total compute consumption per task can continue to rise even as the underlying models become more efficient. Fable 5 and GPT 5.6 demonstrate just how intensive token usage has become. Although Sam Altman explicitly stated that GPT-5.6 is 54% more token-efficient (via CNBC), the fact remains that compute demand continues to increase, requiring more powerful and efficient computing infrastructure. Inference chips will probably become even more important as well.

In summary, my initial conclusion from the latest releases is that compute demand will not merely continue to grow, but will probably exceed the available supply. This naturally means that energy demand will also increase, and, based on my initial assessment, probably more sharply than previously expected. This is likely to remain the largest bottleneck in the very near future. And this is important to me: there are bottlenecks. Not the training of the models, but besides compute, above all energy. This needs to be taken seriously!

The US power grid, for example, is a major bottleneck, and the obvious question is how the necessary expansion can be achieved. Capital expenditure on data centers in the United States continues to rise sharply. This year, it exceeds 800 billion. It is not yet clear what the situation will look like in 2027, but I can hardly imagine investment declining or less CapEx being required. The reason lies precisely in the developments already mentioned: Demand is growing, particularly demand for energy.

China clearly has an advantage here, a genuine moat, and I believe the West must be extremely careful not to fall behind because of the energy advantage China already possesses in practice. This could also help explain why, according to a recent Reuters report, China is considering restricting Western access to its frontier models. It may have concluded that it will win the long-term race.

Unless there is a genuine breakthrough, whether in small modular nuclear reactors or fusion energy, I expect major problems to emerge over the coming years, for example by 2030. So far, I do not see any viable solutions.

We can therefore clearly establish two points:

Models are becoming larger, better, and increasingly useful for all users. There is no end to this development in sight.
At the same time, the bottleneck appears to be growing increasingly severe, and this is already visible in practice.

Regulation, energy demand, and compute demand could mean that, in the very near future, the release cadence will not accelerate as quickly as hoped or desired. This creates a clear contradiction.

Thank you for coming to my TED Talk.

[Michael Hamill @Supertrendai]

@Emolclause @elonmusk mass murderer musk-we need to protect society from him like a convicted mass murderer, in a Just society he would be in prison for consecutive life sentences for this atrocity, no excuse. @Pontifex @gop @ChrisMurphyCT @RoKhanna @aoc @BernieSanders @apnews @nytimes @wsj

[Ronan Farrow @RonanFarrow]

Studies now present a striking picture of what happens when private equity firms acquire hospitals and nursing homes: predictable increases in harm and deaths. One landmark study shows: patient deaths up about 11% after such acquisitions.

[Michael Hamill @Supertrendai]

@SamanthaJPower @TheLastWord @elonmusk there is still time to sell stock and make an attempt to stop starving kids to death en masse. do you have any concern for your afterlife experience? not 1 pct chance its eye for eye justice and you go on to starve to death millions of times? @nytimes @WSJ @gop

[Samantha Power @SamanthaJPower]

One year since USAID was dismantled, and the bill is coming due. On @TheLastWord last night, Lawrence O'Donnell and I talked about the human cost — and Musk's lie that no one has died. USAID staffers repeatedly warned last year about what would happen. Trump, Musk, DOGE, and Rubio didn't care. Full interview here: https://t.co/IJkrsg7NIR

[Michael Hamill @Supertrendai]

@brontyman voters who vote for those politicians do, its the republican voter that kills kids in the schools and people all over the country, I hope we see a day when their recklessness towards others is neutralized and we no longer have to live with, witness their evil @gop @wsj

[Kirsten Gillibrand @SenGillibrand]

Donald Trump just slashed dozens of gun safety regulations that keep guns away from bad actors.

He's enabling gun violence, jeopardizing public safety, and breaking his promises to the American people.

[Michael Hamill @Supertrendai]

@antonioguterres poli sci degree, US-each country-public creates private companies owned equally by citizens that run open source ai as a way to protect from risk of monopolization by frontier co's, Govs. multiple citizen priv co's to protect from failure of one +. risks-gov, wealthy owned only.

[Michael Hamill @Supertrendai]

@Apple @applenews you need to learn to get user consent, just bc I minimize the app doesn't mean I want to open it to the audio or following tab, I realize you are desperate for engagement, maybe make separate apps, the more this happens the less I use Apple News. @MKBHD @WIRED

[Michael Hamill @Supertrendai]

@GovPressOffice correction the damage is ongoing, many children and adults dying every day, that will continue until this is changed @elonmusk must be painful to confront the depth of evil in your actions. @nytimes @wsj where are the good hearted billionaires donors to make up $? @TheDemocrats

[Richard Blumenthal @SenBlumenthal]

Trump’s rolling back gun violence protections will cause needless bloodshed & cost lives. I’ll fight his retreat on regulations. Republicans failing to join us are complicit. https://t.co/Jy8p6d5Zwq

[Michael Hamill @Supertrendai]

@mark_k this is a consent question- if the patient agrees to the care, the patient is assuming the risk. there are as of a 2020 lancet study 68k deaths in the US versus offering universal care, so the risk may be death versus mistake-hopefully the harms can be minimized with guardrails.

[Michael Hamill @Supertrendai]

@omgsidewalks ai will advance enough likely within 5 years to replace senior talent.

[Michael Hamill @Supertrendai]

@effthealgorithm with respect-ai is advancing fast, backward looking failures don't mean the models won't be capable enough relatively shortly. ive seen coding capabilities improve dramatically, can easily envision further leaps, exact timelines unknowable -gdpval- benchmark is one to watch

[Karl Mehta @karlmehta]

Mustafa Suleyman, CEO of Microsoft AI, says the biggest new market in AI is medicine, and the gap between the best and worst care is about to collapse to 20 bucks a month.

"I think by far the most exciting new market is medicine."

"The quality difference between the top 10% and the bottom 10%, even in the United States, let alone the rest of the world, is unbelievable. The gulf is probably an order of magnitude."

"That is going to completely collapse, because everybody is going to have access to medical superintelligence, and it will cost 20 bucks a month. It is going to be remarkably cheap."

"About 40% of our queries each week are health related. Millions of people a day are asking health related queries."

"We ground the answers in citations from Harvard Medical, the most respected health institution."

The man who co-founded DeepMind is telling you the scarcest thing in healthcare, expert judgment, is about to become the cheapest. The winners will not be the labs with the best model. They will be the ones who earn clinical trust the fastest.

[Michael Hamill @Supertrendai]

@karlmehta @mcuban @RoKhanna @AOC @BernieSanders @NYCMayor @BarackObama @ChrisMurphyCT @jamestalarico @Pontifex @ossoff @TheDemocrats build a legal framework to accel. safe adoption of AI in medicine, @mustafasuleyman could consult-disrupt healthcare, universal care within reach, LEAD pls.

[Michael Hamill @Supertrendai]

@NewsHour @SenSanders @Scaramucci @TheDemocrats @AOC @NYCMayor @GavinNewsom @BarackObama @Pontifex take seriously, lines up w wealth gap=violence in history, money's a hard drug, we should protect ourselves from wealthy like violent drug abusers, @FoxNews @gop 's violent even to kids. sick

[Michael Hamill @Supertrendai]

@Pontifex @gop that extends to children vulnerable in schools @AMarch4OurLives extends to children vulnerable at home, in communities, #1 cause of child death is gun fire, preventable, this needs to stop. @FoxNews @JDVance kids safe? @TheDemocrats @nytimes @wsj @AOC @NYCMayor @KamalaHarris

[Michael Hamill @Supertrendai]

@dieworkwear im a poli sci degree, they teach a lot of about foreign influence campaigns, sowing discord through propaganda, I wouldn't be surprised if 70 pct of maga mouthpiece accounts are Chinese, Russian, Iranian etc., no one checks on X, yet media reports them as Americans, id checks?