Surfing Secular

[Surfing Secular @SurfingSecular]

4 simple steps to investing: 1) Look for businesses that have high returns on capital, protected by a durable MOAT. 2) Business that have ample reinvestment opportunities that can reinvest due to little maintenance capex required

[Surfing Secular @SurfingSecular]

@felixprehn AI

[Felix Prehn 🐶 @felixprehn]

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[Surfing Secular @SurfingSecular]

@patrick_oshag Midnight library or How to To Stop Time. Both are quick reads but linger in your head after — not overly heavy, just thoughtful. Definitely worth picking up if you’re into books that make you pause and think a little differently about your own life.

[Surfing Secular @SurfingSecular]

@garyHeff @sirinvestalot21 @grok

[Surfing Secular @SurfingSecular]

@MarienLechevin thank you 🙏

[Surfing Secular @SurfingSecular]

@MarienLechevin Thank you for sharing. I’ve started to ramp up my research on EVO and have a general idea of their market share dominance. Is this data based on a proprietary tracking system you have?

[Surfing Secular @SurfingSecular]

$evo

looks like Martin picked up $8m, 15% increase to his holdings

[Surfing Secular @SurfingSecular]

Looking for the $EVO short reports from Jan 2022 and October 2023. I have the November 2021 report. Can only seem to find articles discussing the other 2. Any help would be greatly appreciated

[Surfing Secular @SurfingSecular]

More details on cap alloc: $24m cfo, $5m capex, $8m buybacks, $10m M&A

[Surfing Secular @SurfingSecular]

$PRM Q1 is immaterial but good Q, above avg fire season helped. Tiny, but first acq in the IMS leg of the stool, if they can simply bring that production in, will lift margins. Cap Alloc is impressive, hammered the buyback at lows

[Surfing Secular @SurfingSecular]

Having $10m of IP tee’d up on a $32m IMS acq is interesting.

[Surfing Secular @SurfingSecular]

Total market size seems smaller than I anticipated, maybe 12-24 companies at the $5m-$10m revenue in the niche space. This niche is part of a much larger industry but they play in the low vol, high speed space. IMS aimed to be 2x-3x the margin of commoditized part of industry.

[Surfing Secular @SurfingSecular]

Read an interview with former CEO of IMS, the recent $PRM acquisition. Doesn’t seem like they own the IP like originally thought. Similar patterns to TDG on the early and end of life stages with pricing power, low vol, quick turnarounds needed. Value prop in the service and speed

[Surfing Secular @SurfingSecular]

IMS did well in the early stages of product development but opportunity to grow in the end of life stages. Grew the early stage business primarily through word of mouth, just need to develop a better pipeline for end of life products

[Surfing Secular @SurfingSecular]

@Process_Cap @evrgn11112231 Yea, John has been screaming that for a while now. The part of EO to remove some of the oversight from USFS to include 3rd party testing/industry input was likely because of the USFS push to force use of Fortress. Agree on the podcast, it’s great!

[Surfing Secular @SurfingSecular]

$PRM reportedly an EO draft in establishing the National Wildfire Agency by 2026. https://t.co/iObS4vBIek

Nothing incredibly groundbreaking as many of these changes have been discussed since the LA fires. Overall, it should increase industry aerial capacity and use. 1/

[Surfing Secular @SurfingSecular]

@evrgn11112231 I agree on extremely positive for PRM and overall expand capacity, especially the longer term contracts make the whole industry more stable with tankers able to invest here.

Cheers

[Surfing Secular @SurfingSecular]

My gut (or bias) believes it’s the former. @evrgn11112231 have you thought through this?

[Surfing Secular @SurfingSecular]

2) or this allows a contracting officer to separate the service requirement of PRM’s contract from the underlying material, opening the door to new entrants because PRM’s moat is more manufacturing/distribution based than anything and the new entrants can’t compete here.