This account is a public trading journal.
Posts reflect SweetSpot system-based setups, executions, and research.
Nothing here is financial advice, a recommendation, or an invitation to trade.
Markets are risky. Study independently. Seek professional advice where appropriate.
5/5
I will be sharing the data files so others can check, improve, or falsify the result.
The important part is not the conclusion.
The important part is that the proverb has been turned into code.
@HBMStrategies
1/5
“The market doesn’t peak on peak momentum.”
I tested this on ~125 years of $DJIA daily data.
Momentum definition:
Mom = RateofChange(Close,252)
Peak momentum:
PeakMom = HighestBar(Mom,504)=0
Translation: 12-month momentum making a 2-year high.
4/5
Caveats:
• $DJIA only
• Daily closing data
• Momentum = 252-day ROC
• Peak momentum = 504-day high in that ROC
• Major peak = followed by 20% decline
Next tests: $SPX $NDX
$DJIA $SPX $NDX 2026: were the operative peaks in Jan-Feb, or is the current June zone the more relevant candidate?
This is not a prediction. It is a high-probability outcome study using DJIA closing prices since 1885 and a proprietary historical classification model.
1/12
Balanced conclusion:
Current evidence weakens Jan-Feb and keeps the June/current zone as the active price $DJIA $SPX $NDX candidate. Confirmation requires subsequent failure behavior. A later higher high would shift the candidate forward or falsify the interpretation.
11/12
Trump post: 12:38 PM ET.
$ES $SPY low minute: 12:40 PM ET.
Lag: ~2 minutes.
Not proof, but markets clearly do not treat Truth Social as entertainment only.
$NQ $QQQ