@JerryCap iPhones allow parents to have surveillance state, weed crowds out use, and maybe less boredom from better video games/social media which lessens need to drink?
$HTLD : again, stepping in front of a recession with a cyclical is not ideal, but there is minimal BK risk here. And btw, the Gerdin family owns 41% of the stock.
Trading at .9 book, 10% plus FCF yield on trough performance, what happens if this freight market inflects?
Continuing to add to $HTLD. Yes there’s a rapid deterioration in macro, but $HTLD trading like there is insolvency risk. $180mm debt, continuing to pay it down, $160mm of EBITDA (2.5x covenant). $100mm in FCF in both 2023/2024, market cap is now $700mm.
If there is a turnaround, they have a ton of operating leverage as their two acquisitions ($750mm purchase price) have been contributing negative operating income. If not, they continue to pay down debt, as competitors go under.