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Developed a fit score that tells us if a rookie WR fits with his QBs passing tendencies using a 12-zone usage map.
10,000 word article covers 15 WRs in the 2026 class.
Makai Lemon🍋:
❌Fit Score: 76.0: Neutral/mixed fit
❌Conflict Score: 19.5 Moderate
https://t.co/s89vKbOLZU
@JoeOrrico Finally someone using logic about London. The hype train has been insane recently. He’s a talent WR but his situation is bad and he’s proved very little in 4 years to garner the glazing he’s been getting lol
Love that take about film analysis.
I’m with you on the KC Concepcion analytics, but if we exclude his Sophmore year where his coach used him in a gadget role (data support this), he checks almost all the boxes. I know that’s cherry picking, but it’s very interesting. Especially the role he’d play in a Todd Monken offense. You think that’s too much of a cherry pick from a data standpoint for him?
Who would you rather have as a fantasy owner? These are the players stats over the past 4 years on a per game basis:
- Player 1: 4.9 rec, 64 yrds, .35TDs (1 - 1K+ szn)
- Player 2: 5.2 rec, 68 yrds, .35 TDs (3 - 1K+ szn)
One of these players is a full round discount at ADP.
I’d think there is a higher chance for Hendo to hit that top 5. A year 2 RB seeing an uptick in usage isn’t unheard of as he learns the playbook, develops, and builds rapport. Add his pass catching ability, explosiveness, & great offensive.
Judkins hitting top 5 means the Browns have to be good, have a reliable QB, and win. Betting on the Browns to do that seems less likely than Hendos usage going up imo haha
@FF_mbryan4445@SleeperNFL@SleeperBrowns@BrownsLead@Patriots_Lead I agree about the split backfield with Hendo but “easy” is a stretch. Below are rush attempts per game in a Monken offense. When they are playing from ahead, his RBs see insane usage. When they are losing, they don’t.
2023: 8.2 vs 1.5
2024: 11.8 vs 3.6
2025: 7.7 vs 6.5
Malik Willis career:
- 155 pass attempts
- 74 rush attempts
He has the ability to be a Justin Fields esk QB1 simply due to his rushing upside even if the offense is terrible.
Currently QB21 and basically free.
@NoFilm_Analysis Only concern I have with this is that I don’t expect CLE to win much in 2026. This is the breakdown of leading vs trailing APG (@FantasyPtsData)
2023: 8.2 vs 1.5
2024: 11.8 vs 3.6
2025: 7.7 vs 6.5
It will be a huge if they find a QB and way to compete. Might be 2027+ tho
@NoFilm_Analysis Only concern I have with this is that I don’t expect CLE to win much in 2026. This is the breakdown of leading vs trailing APG (@FantasyPtsData)
2023: 8.2 vs 1.5
2024: 11.8 vs 3.6
2025: 7.7 vs 6.5
It will be a huge if they find a QB and way to compete. Might be 2027+ tho
@GuruFantasyWrld@RyanJ_Heath Glad the big boys are catching up. I coined 2025 the year of the RB when I wrote this exact same thing up last year. Glad to see the community course correcting.
https://t.co/c5iAE4dopG
@SmolaDS I can't tell if your comment is facetious..but playing some of the best defenses in the NFL early & not having a QB will do that.
First 6 weeks rush ypg:
- CLE: #3
- JAX: #8
- MIN: #24
- DEN: #6
- DET: #11
- GB: #1
He went from hard mode early, to easy mode late in the season
@TheTommyTutu This is basically:
- 2027 1st mystery box with the opportunity cost of a year
OR
- A 25 y/o WR who has finished as WR25, WR16, & WR6 in 3 of the past 4 years who just got a better coach/scheme & young QB
The other 2nd round picks are just noise. Seems like a logical “NO” 🤷♂️
KC Concepcion:
YPRR Overall/ Zone/ Man
- Freshman: NC State: 2.30/ 2.10/ 2.74
- Sophomore: NC State: 1.28/ 0.95/ 2.02
- Junior: Texas A&M: 2.45/ 2.51/ 2.82
Sophomore year he was used more in a gadget role. He saw 8% less deep usage & 8.7 YPR.
Data isn’t telling his full story
This got me thinking about the 2026 class.
Regular season data: R1/R2 WRs, my zone YPRR threshold is 2.2(+1K yds).
Across all drafted WRs, career YPRR/zone/man does not create a clean universal threshold. But, you drop late WR hits (pick 100+), it becomes a strong separator.⬇️