Timm Schneider

My 'Hybrid' burns two things: Gasoline and Rubber. Love Cats. And Energy. And maybe three other people. #energy #eft #alternativeenergy #oil #natgas

[Timm Schneider @TSCGllc]

@johnarnold Market has swung too quickly from ‘$200 oil on a supply shock’ to ‘$50 oil on demand destruction'

[Timm Schneider @TSCGllc]

Latest note just hit. Some weekend reading. Knicks not on until tomorrow so what else is there to do. If you are not a client (full note on website), and would like to be added to our teaser distro pls ping me. there is no charge for that. watch that asia open. #energy #oil #brent #wti #OOTT

https://t.co/n6yQq2XDAa

[Goldman Sachs @GoldmanSachs]

A record two-thirds of institutional investors expect oil prices to fall, according to a recent Goldman Sachs Marquee client survey. The results suggest that investors anticipate a potential easing of tensions in the Middle East, which could restore crude oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Sign up for our weekly newsletter, Briefings, for more insights: https://t.co/3o9b3dnl9p

[Timm Schneider @TSCGllc]

We put these pricing scenarios out last week (just updated for today's prices), more as near-term trading ranges than anything else, for respective front months. Probably still fine w/ this even realizing it was stale five minutes after we published it. Kind of done w/ the front months. too much twitter noise on a daily basis. probably better value Aug+. have a nice weekend all.
#oil #EFT #energy #OOTT #WTI #Brent

https://t.co/n6yQq2X5KC

[Timm Schneider @TSCGllc]

@Rory_Johnston @trend_bullish Down eight percent on hyperliquid right now. Interesting timing with the US holiday. We shall see.

[Timm Schneider @TSCGllc]

a few things we've been pondering over in #energy #natgas #oil #AI #power #EFT

*Financing is the new bottleneck. The #AI, #LNG, and gas‑for‑power build‑out is increasingly constrained not by geology or engineering, but by who can actually assemble multi‑layered capital stacks, balance sheets alone will not fund the opportunity set (discussed in Miami, and elsewhere). The most creative operators are already stacking sponsor equity, strategic JV partners, offtaker equity participation, insurance‑backed structures, and project‑level debt into single financings. The companies that solve this execute at scale. The ones that can't will quietly disappoint on timelines, in our view, and consensus models have zero discount for that execution risk.

*#Permian gas is a reflexive system, not a one‑off fix. Rising Gas-to-Oil (GORs) means each new egress pipe drives Waha volumes faster than expected, pulls shut‑in volumes back online, and sets up the next capacity pinch a few years out rather than 'solving' the basin. The physics here are non‑linear: As wells mature and thermal maturity deepens (happy to chat), GOR keeps climbing regardless of what producers want to do, meaning associated gas is essentially involuntary. Every relief valve creates the conditions for the next bottleneck while increasing volumes out of the Permian to other hubs (HH etc) set up an element of reflexivity that drives major benchmarks lower. Coming out of Miami - our outlook on natural gas price has soured drastically... Full caveat we will still take select long (or short) exposure (via options) when we see near-term price dislocations but gas bulls could face some real headwinds despite lackluster 2026+ curves.

*...The right trade is (gas) volume and volatility, not price (V²>P). With select local hubs deeply negative, storage above average, and LNG feedgas choppy, the healthiest part of the chain is fee‑based throughput and optionality, not outright gas price exposure. Upstream needs disciplined hedging and a bias toward liquids‑rich plays. Midstream wins by monetizing molecules regardless of where prices settle. Downstream and power benefit from a deeper, cheaper gas stack where volatility becomes a service they can purchase rather than a risk they have to carry. This has interesting implications for both traditional and 'non-traditional' storage.

*At an earlier conference this month (Call us), ABS quietly rewrote the (Upstream) M&A playbook. Upstream ABS has evolved from a refinancing tool into a bid currency for PDP‑heavy packages, with buyers using bridge‑to‑ABS structures and divisive mergers to outbid traditional capital and push gas‑weighted basins (Haynesville, Anadarko, Appalachia) to the front of the deal queue. The mechanic is precise: Bid on the whole PDP/PUD package, close with a bridge, execute a Texas divisive merger (It’s basically the legal version of the Texas two‑step: All the liabilities ‘accidentally’ twirl over to one side of the dance floor while the cash‑flowing PDPs glide off with a new partner) to separate PDP into a bankruptcy‑remote SPV, then refinance with rated ABS notes - all within 90 days of closing. The result is that PDP valuation expectations for sellers are structurally rising, and traditional PE and corporate buyers are increasingly disadvantaged when competing for the most cash‑flow‑heavy packages. That said, we've seen Upstream players continue to drive accretive PDP acquisitions.

*Hormuz has permanently tilted global flows toward North America. Even as futures curves price a quick-ish resolution, offtakers are signing longer‑dated contracts with U.S. exporters to structurally reduce Middle East dependence and re‑anchor LNG/LPG flows to the Gulf Coast. The physical supply chain re‑wiring is happening independent of any diplomatic timeline, and unlike a price spike, infrastructure cannot be 'un‑wired' when the Strait reopens. The duration premium embedded in U.S. export capacity is not going to zero with a peace deal. This fits 100% with our integrated value chain point (read on).

*Integrated value chains are back in favor but the symbiotic relationship is the key. Where molecules move seamlessly from wellhead through pipes into refineries, petchems, exports, and power, etc, earnings volatility drops and dislocations become margin opportunities rather than one‑way P&L hits. The caveat is critical: Integration only lowers risk where the business lines are systematically connected within a single value chain. Conglomerates with less symbiotic linkages between divisions may actually be better candidates for a breakup to unlock value. We firmly believe the market is starting to draw that distinction more carefully.

*Retail petrol is flashing demand destruction before the models. Operators closest to the end‑customer (think retail gasoline exposure) are already seeing pressure in gasoline and diesel demand even as bulk pipeline and terminal volumes still look fine, implying a lagged impact that will likely show up in 2Q & 3Q data. The sequencing matters: Retail bleeds through to wholesale with a 4 to 8 week lag, and when an operator (obvious who we spoke to here...) handling over 15 billion gallons annually across dozens of countries shifts its tone from 'no evidence' to 'early signs' in the span of a few weeks, that is a leading indicator that deserves more weight than aggregate pipeline throughput data.

*Liability management is now the default, not the exception. Recent credit data show LM transactions outnumbering traditional restructurings roughly 2:1, with more structured 'uptiers' and dropdowns giving companies new ways to reshape capital structures long before distress shows up in spreads. The more important evolution is behavioral: LM is no longer a last‑ditch move, it is being used opportunistically to extend runway, prime new capital, and capture debt at a discount in environments where business fundamentals are still intact. For energy credits specifically, at least in our opinion,  this means more issuers will proactively re‑cut capital structures ahead of commodity cycles rather than waiting for covenant stress to force their hand.

*Private infrastructure is where the puck is going. Quiet moves in terminals, last‑mile gas developers, and unlisted long‑haul systems are telegraphing where the next wave of power, data‑center, and gas infrastructure actually gets built, long before it appears in public capex guides. These private assets are doing something else too: They are road‑testing financing structures (ABS recycling, offtaker equity, SPV exits) that the public market hasn't adopted yet, making them the R&D lab for the capital formation models the whole sector will eventually need. Fits somewhat with our first point...

Timm

[Timm Schneider @TSCGllc]

Here are the changes in polymarket probabilities from 4-28 to today. Why 4-28 that is when we put out our latest scenario runs: Not saying these are end all be all but we used these to back into some implied pricing on WTI and Brent. #oil #eft #energy

Full note on website

HODL!

[Timm Schneider @TSCGllc]

Waiting for Sunday #oil and #Natgas to open #eft

[Timm Schneider @TSCGllc]

@EnergyCynic Renewables should continue to eat into baseload as well which likely means less ccgts and more peakers that run at much lower capacity factors. I never spent much time on that but it’s a thing.

[Timm Schneider @TSCGllc]

@BubleQe Would love to see it just from a ‘shot of adrenaline for sector’ perspective. Also quite a fine movie

[Timm Schneider @TSCGllc]

@RazorOil @trend_bullish Not sure if I am the litmus test for Canadian upstream but investors don’t come to me for Canadian upstream (midstream is a different story) … post the rds/arx deal ton of inbounds in Canada upstream - Canada so back. Gateway drug to international!

[Timm Schneider @TSCGllc]

@WAR527 I remember an analyst (not me but credit where credit is due) used that as a headline (not me) when $ET was having all the issues w/ DAPL... 'A little DAPL do ya' I had to google but was quite good

[Timm Schneider @TSCGllc]

Was waiting to drop this picture (meme?) for a while... $DVN $CTRA #EFT. Seemed (somewhat) fitting here.

https://t.co/wT2bEaAVue

[Timm Schneider @TSCGllc]

@WAR527 the germans have a saying for this lol
'Kleinvieh macht auch Mist'

[Timm Schneider @TSCGllc]

#EFT $SHEL $ARX.TO

Merger Monday... finally. Not the blockbuster we were hoping for but at least something...

https://t.co/wT2bEaAVue

[Timm Schneider @TSCGllc]

@SullyCNBC Forget Venezuela or Iran. In five years throw Argentina in there as well

[Timm Schneider @TSCGllc]

Survey update headline https://t.co/EEsesE2NOB # via @DallasFed

Interesting one… we have key takes on website

[Timm Schneider @TSCGllc]

Always find myself at these watering holes… #eft