James Stawicki

First principles deep dives on high-conviction asymmetric plays | 30% IRR since Oct-2020 | Ex Investment Banker |

[James Stawicki @TYMrMarket]

Serial acquirers in other industries - $HEI, $LIFCO_B, $AME, etc - trade at 30-45x FCF. $CSU.TO and $TOI.V? <20x.

Generational buying opportunity once the narrative changes. And whilst it rerates it’ll continue growing at a 20% clip.

Can’t make this stuff up.

[Oli @OlivierBib]

Constellation Software isn't really a software company.
It's a capital allocation machine that happens to own 1,500 software businesses.
The stock fell 55%. My first deep dive on why the market might have it backwards 🧵

[James Stawicki @TYMrMarket]

@Antoniokolstee @OlivierBib Plus you’ve got over 1,100 subsidiaries individually figuring out how to effectively use AI - arguably the largest parallel AI R&D engine out there

[James Stawicki @TYMrMarket]

@joinyellowbrick @UnderlyingValue @FugaziResearch @PhilippHaas_ir @valuedontlie Thanks for the feature!

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

META will be the first to cut capex

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

"How far do hyperscalers need to fall for market to start trading capex cuts?" - Michael Hartnett

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

Also, it looks like the AI capex spending recipients are about to start a massive capex spending spree of their own:

Samsung Electronics and SK HYNIX are reviewing ways to expand semiconductor cluster investments in the Honam and Chungcheong region, southern provinces of the country. Investment on the scale of hundreds of trillions of won is said to be discussed including both memory & semi production plants: Chosun

[First Squawk @FirstSquawk]

AI Monetization Fears Hit Big Tech

Investors are increasingly worried that AI leaders may have reached the ceiling on what customers are willing to pay for advanced LLMs, while fierce competition continues to drive token prices lower. As AI pricing falls, concerns are growing that massive data center and GPU investments by hyperscalers could generate lower-than-expected returns, pressuring valuations across the AI ecosystem.

[Tracy Alloway @tracyalloway]

Hyperscaler free cashflow projections via Charlie McElligott at Nomura:

[Michael Gielkens @MichaelGielkens]

$CSU.TO $TOI.V

Nico Kras, CEO of Cipal Schaubroeck, spoke to De Tijd following the acquisition of his company by the Canadian software group Constellation Software. He refutes the idea that Cipal Schaubroeck is now part of a foreign behemoth concerned only with profit maximisation:

"That is not how Constellation Software works. It does not create value by building a monopoly and charging higher prices, but by continuously benchmarking and sharing best practices and knowledge between the companies that are part of the group. Over the past year we have developed several new products thanks to that cross-pollination."

The CEO pushes back against the image of Constellation as a classic software behemoth that swallows companies and centralises everything. He describes the Canadian group as a spider's web of thousands of small autonomous companies, somewhat comparable to the Antwerp ICT group Cronos:

"At Cipal Schaubroeck too, we have now created ten virtual small companies, each led by someone different. That stimulates entrepreneurship and brings you closer to your customers."

CEO Cipal Schaubroeck na stille verkoop: ‘Als Vlaamse gemeenten meer betalen voor ICT, komt dat niet door ons’
https://t.co/O66Tj2R9s8

[Negligible Capital @negligible_cap]

Salesforce is on its longest losing streak ever this month, now down to levels unseen since January of 2023.

In the last 12 days, $CRM is down over 24%.

[jbulltard @jbulltard1]

Ummm ok what’s going on here? Nvidia has unlimited capital?

[L @zeroxpectation]

$CSU progress of AI accelerator program

Building agentic workflows requires relentless curiosity & willingness to challenge pre-existing beliefs. Months ago, few knew how. Now firms launch in wks & stun customers. Earlier accelerator cohorts are now shipping what they started!!!

[L @zeroxpectation]

$CSU insider tried to use AI to rebuild old software

Verdict:
AI won't save u if u don't understand your own software. It'll just help u build the wrong thing faster. B4 asking if AI can rebuild it—can u explain why the current version works. Nervous? That's the real project!

[NewsWire @NewsWire_US]

META MOVES TO LIMIT EMPLOYEE AI USAGE AS COSTS REACH BILLIONS

[James Stawicki @TYMrMarket]

@varuninvesting @TidefallCapital Yep, doesn't instil confidence given the already depressed sentiment.. makes you wonder

[James Stawicki @TYMrMarket]

The #SaaSpocalypse is still in full swing.

$ADBE beat Q2 revenue & EPS ests, and guided to higher Q3 revenue driven by strong demand for its AI products. Sounds good?

Stock is down ~6% AH after having already fallen ~6% today. The stock is now at its lowest since early 2019.

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

ORCL Free cash flow was negative $23.7 billion for fiscal year 2026,

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

APOLLO SAYS IT IS MASSIVELY UNDERWEIGHT SOFTWARE AND IS DIRECTING CAPITAL TOWARD CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE AND LESS EXPOSED BUSINESSES, REFLECTING A MORE DEFENSIVE CREDIT STANCE

here come the software OWICs

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

here comes another one

*SUPER MICRO COMPUTER FILES MIXED SECURITIES SHELF

[James Stawicki @TYMrMarket]

@sidecarcap Jeffrey Edwards $CPS