@Microsoft@Windows you idiots forced an update and locked my wife out of her personal computer with bitlocker when this was not enabled. No help from your automated assistant. Photos, videos, memories gone because of you.
SNOW, AND RUMORS OF SNOW: Tis the season for wild, long range snow maps posted all over social media. These posts are usually from people with no rudimentary knowledge of numerical weather prediction, or how the atmosphere actually works. Regardless, people are whipped into a frenzy, and the snow maps are shared thousands of times.
And, professional meteorologists are bombarded with messages asking "is is true?".
Let's look at the situation this morning. Yes, the pattern suggests colder weather for the Deep South in 7-14 days. Yes, some deterministic runs of global models suggest some risk of snow for North Alabama in 7-10 days. I have posted frames from the American GFS and the European ECMWF here.
But, those frames mean very little at this range.
The best way of looking at the situation is the ensemble approach using probabilities. In this case global models generate separate forecasts (ensemble members) to address underlying uncertainties in the input data such limited coverage, instruments or observing systems biases, and the limitations of the model itself. The average of the ensemble members using a probabilistic approach gives a much better look at what might happen.
The GFS ensemble has 30 members, the ECMWF ensemble has 51 members.
Now that you have a little NWP (numerical weather prediction) knowledge, note I have posted the ECMWF ensemble output through January 6. It shows a 10-30 percent chance of 1 inch of snow or more over North/Central Alabama between now and then. Just a signal, and you watch for trends.
As we get into winter, we simply ask you to think before you share. Most of the long range, useless snow maps are posted by teenagers that just love weather and want to wishcast a snow storm. Others are posted by those that make money from social media through engagement. Some are do it maliciously to get under our skin.
It is all we can do to provide an accurate snow forecast 24 hours in advance. You know our skill set is limited. A snow forecast 7-10 days in advance? Forget about it.
So, all you want know is "will it snow??". The correct answer is that we don't know right now, but the pattern is certainly trending colder, and we will just have to wait and see if the idea of snow remains on the table.
My producers dragged me to see ‘Barbie’ and it was one of the most woke movies I have ever seen. My full review of this flaming garbage heap of a film will be out on my YouTube channel tomorrow at 10am ET.
#BREAKING: Missing person advisory issued in Alabama for Carlethia “Carlee” Russell, 25, out of Hoover, Alabama.
Social media is extremely powerful in these situations. You know what to do. Let’s bring her home.
#CarleeRussell#MISSING#Alabama
@Chart1888 @Akademiks Lakers called a timeout down 2 with 10 left. (Booked a ticket)
Inbound play to tie the game and send it into over time. (Cash on hand)
Westbrook was supposed to dump it down to Davis for a layup but took a three instead. (Didn’t drive to Mexico after booking said ticket)