The S&P 500 has been doing the same thing since 1920 and almost nobody frames it correctly.
A new technology arrives. Markets expand for roughly 25 years while that technology reshapes the economy. Then a short consolidation. Then the next technology arrives and does it again.
🔸Electronics: 24 years of expansion.
🔸PCs and internet: 25 years of expansion.
🔸AI and smartphones: we're in year 15.
Every single consolidation phase felt like the end of the world. Every single expansion phase felt "too extended" by year 10.
We've been in "too extended" territory for about 5 years now. The last two cycles ran for another decade after reaching this exact point.
For #Bitcoin to launch the bull run in Red Year (after Nov 28th, 2024) it must get past what I'd like to call the gatekeep.
This is marked by the lower high from the previous cycle tops.
For cycle 4, this is a price target of $48,000
According to many long-term data sources I've reviewed, the gatekeep might be reached in the near future. (Many pointing to this month or next)
What does this mean for the second early top if 48k is reached sooner? (next purple dot)
BitTime doesn't call for certain prices; it is only based on time.
The gatekeep was also reached a bit earlier in cycle 3, so we may retest it again in June at that point.
After we surpass and hold the gatekeep, the bull parabola is next.
Will ETFs bring the power needed to break the gatekeep early? Some would say so.
For now, the cycles remain right on track, and the firm break will likely take place later in 2024.