Taylor Toohey

Sales Enablement leader helping scale SaaS sales teams 🚀 | Professional explainer of things | Exploring #Bitcoin | Basically just trying to be Ryan Reynolds

[Cory 🦢 Real Bitcoin @ Swan.com @CorySwan]

When even Coinbase is calling for Bitcoin Only, you know the crypto grift has gotten out of control

[Taylor Toohey @TaylorToohey]

@PeterMcCormack @_DannyKnowles @_DannyKnowles Happy Birthday! 🎉

[Documenting ₿itcoin 📄 @DocumentingBTC]

Why does #bitcoin use energy?

Listen to @Aantonop explain how #bitcoin mining and Proof-of-Work consensus protects the blockchain against any and all attacks.

[Taylor Toohey @TaylorToohey]

@the_nassar Not unpopular at all! Great point, I wonder why there isn’t more education out there about this 🧐

[Taylor Toohey @TaylorToohey]

@CJKonstantinos Genuinely such a helpful breakdown! Thanks @CJKonstantinos 👏

[CJK @CJKonstantinos]

9 years of finance & #Bitcoin study in one 🍊💊 Tweet

May the 💡 go off for you...

FINANCE 101 ✍️

The HIGHER the interest rate,
The HIGHER the risk.

The LOWER the interest rate,
the LOWER the risk.

Don't let the talking heads on TV convince you otherwise - rising yields on US Treasuries means higher systemic risk 🚨⚠️🚨

What do you mean CJK, they say Treasuries are "risk-free"!?

FINANCE 102 ✍️

Yes BUT what they mean by that is that there is no NOMINAL RISK.

In other words, bc the gov + FED have a currency printer, you will 💯 get paid interest and get back your principal upon maturity.

Ok CJK, so then what is the REAL risk!?

FINANCE 201 ✍️

The real risk with Treasuries isn't whether you will get paid back or not...

The RISK IS NOT KNOWING HOW MUCH ARE YOU GOING TO BE ABLE TO BUY when you do get paid back.

*And that's ignoring price risk if you need liquidity before maturity 🙃

Because of $33 Trillion of debt 💰 + $200T of unfunded liabilities 🔥💵 WHILE gov is running massive deficit budgets💸 ...

Higher yields means more inflation (printing to pay) aka weaker dollars bc of loss of purchasing power.

You may get your $1M + 5% APY after 1yr BUT how much have PRICES GONE UP for the things you now need & want to buy with that $1.05M?

FINANCE 202 ✍️

Inflation makes all prices go up.

Including the price of money (interest rates).

Including the price of labor (wages).

DEVALUATION of the currency IS HOW ALL PRICES RISE even without changes in supply & demand.

LESS manipulated + MORE accurate 1980s gov cpi has inflation @ 11.6% https://t.co/3UUgE4UTwH

That means in real terms Treasury owners need to earn 11.6% APY to know they can maintain purchasing power.

Makes sense CJK but rates are lower than that, so what's it mean?

FINANCE 301 ✍️

It means the true beneficiary of Treasuries is the borrower and NOT the lender.

Borrower is pulling their future purchasing power forward to buy today at a price that is more affordable than price at the time at which the lender receives back principal + interest.

The real rate is (% APY - CPI) = -6.5%

Only when the real interest rate is positive will lenders be able to increase their purchasing power.

Damn CJK, I can't believe they can do that BUT what if FED brings rates up high enough to be positive?

FINANCE 302 ✍️

Remember what we learned in FINNACE 201:

-> Bc of the massive gov debt, higher yields means more inflation (printing to pay interest expense) aka weaker dollars.

The HIGHER rates go the FASTER the gov has to DEVALUE the currency.

This is called the Debt Death Spiral ☠️🌪 and I think we are in it right now.

Thats a lot CJK, so what are you doing to navigate all this?

CONCLUSIONS ✍️

FINANCE 101: Ignore the 'Cramers' from across all aspects of analysis. Let common sense do the talking and math be the signal.

FINANCE 102: Know the difference between NOMINAL vs REAL interest rates to understand the risk/reward of owning Treasuries.

FINANCE 201: The massive amount of gov debt + spending invalidates the effects of raising interest rates.

Higher rates = higher interest expense for gov + higher cost structures for businesses.

This leads to stronger inflationary price pressures vs deflationary.

FINANCE 202: Use older gov equations (with less manipulations aka more accuracy) to better understand the data and make important portfolio decisions.

FINANCE 301: When real interest rates are negative, debt is an asset to the borrower and a liability to the lender.

Don't be a dumb lender, be a smart borrower @saylor 🧠🧠🧠

FINANCE 302: Higher interest rates should not be tempting you RATHER they should be setting off the alarms 🚨 that systemic risk is increasing.

FINAL THOUGHTS:

The simple solution to cut gov spending is not politically possible to pull off bc it would require political suicide.

The debt death spiral is inevitable.

Escape 🤡 🌎 with hard assets...

THE BEST: #Bitcoin

THE GOOD: Gold, Silver, RE, Commodities.

Good luck anon! 🍊✌️🧡

[Taylor Toohey @TaylorToohey]

@PeterMcCormack @KayBurley Totally agree with you, Peter. So uncommon for those with a microphone to even attempt to educate their audience properly.

[Taylor Toohey @TaylorToohey]

Spending the mornings browsing, looking for content that simplifies #Bitcoin (for beginners). Any suggestions on profiles to follow or threads to read?

[Taylor Toohey @TaylorToohey]

@IAmPascio X

[Pascio @IAmPascio]

Yesterday I hit 100,000 followers.

In celebration, I'm giving away "The Twitter Bible".

Everything I've learned growing my audience.

Normally costs $50, but to celebrate it's FREE next 24 hrs!

To get it:

1. Follow me (so I can DM you)
2. Retweet this tweet
3. Reply "X" below

[Taylor Toohey @TaylorToohey]

Strong #Bitcoin thesis 👇

#Bitcoin in 15 minutes with @dylanleclair https://t.co/01tfEfQdb5 via @YouTube

[Taylor Toohey @TaylorToohey]

@pacificbitcoin So bummed I am missing this! Looking forward to planning ahead for 2024 😀

[Taylor Toohey @TaylorToohey]

The curiosity around #Bitcoin compounds the more you learn. It's not just the topic of #BTC itself. It is a doorway to exploring other areas of life (like personal finance, privacy, etc.) and taking ownership over those domains.

[Taylor Toohey @TaylorToohey]

@thejustinwelsh Appreciate these posts, Justin! Diving into this journey myself, and these tips have been remarkably helpful 👏

[Taylor Toohey @TaylorToohey]

"#Bitcoin as a forcing function for thinking differently." This statement is on a continuous loop in my head.

@_Checkmatey_ mentioned on a recent interview with @PeterMcCormack, @_DannyKnowles on @WhatBitcoinDid, worth the watch/listen!

https://t.co/aMCoNhde8K via @YouTube

[Taylor Toohey @TaylorToohey]

@awilkinson Yep! @thebaseapp is what you’re looking for.

[Taylor Toohey @TaylorToohey]

@jaredctate Hey Jared! Still running into issues with iOS wallet. Even following support documentation, can’t get the wallet to sync. Any suggestions to resolve? Thanks!

[Joseph Todaro @Jatodaro]

This weekend I created https://t.co/HlmzNx4WNP to automatically generate one of over 64,000 ideas for a quick UI design activity for myself, my team, and my students.

🚀 Retweet and give Random UI an upvote Product Hunt:
https://t.co/toDNOPAL3I

[Joseph Todaro @Jatodaro]

Now enjoy a massive library of over 160,000 high resolution, transparent PNG images of beautifully rendered 3D shapes on the freshly updated https://t.co/gPmTMQOe8O.

What kind of shapes should I add to the site next?

#design #3dmodeling #UI #uiux

[Joseph Todaro @Jatodaro]

🚀A pack of 58 smooth 3D shapes in 11 different matte plastic colors from 16 different viewing angles. That’s over 10,000 high-res transparent PNG images. And it’s completely free.

💖 Check out Shapefest on @ProductHunt
https://t.co/Sdg1B446w8