THE CY YOUNG FAVORITE.
Dylan Cease Under 4.5 Hits Allowed
50❤️ and I’ll drop MLB Play #4
Cease has a 45% combined K/walk rate which SEVERLY limits chances for hits
Combined with a 99% percentile .181 xBA it is near impossible to rack up hits vs Cease
And he is Under in 16/18 the last 4 months and under in 14/15 when not facing the #1 contact% team that past month (A’s 27th in contact% last 30 days)
All signs point to an under today as Cease is Under in 16/18, this is only an average matchup and A’s are a higher K rate, higher walk rate team which favor’s Cease style to limit hits
Best Line: -140 MGM
THE SUN GOD SYSTEM☀️
Amon Ra St Brown O 5.5 Receptions (-135 MGM/HR)
#OnePride vs #DawgPound
Brutal defense means you have to lean on your reliable guys. Amon Ra is the poster boy for reliable catching.
Show love if you want ANOTHER play❤️
Amon-ra vs Cover-1. The new website has shown that it really is that simple.
Against teams that rank in the top 18 in Cover-1 usage rate, Amon Ra is over in 31/37 games dating back to 2022 and 4 of those 6 misses came in divisional games.
We have seen his role with the new OC really remain unchanged as his alignment, aDOT, and target rate all remain pretty similar, especially after a Week 1 disaster that initially looked like a new deployment with deeper developing routes that seemed to correct itself.
Now, Browns are a good and tough matchup. I won't act like they aren't. But they are also allowing the 2nd highest DVOA to WR1s last season and still sit at 13th highest this season. I think the difficulty of this matchup is much more likely to affect the "boom/bust" aspect of Jamo and hurt the run game. This should help funnel more work to Amon-Ra as the possession receiver of the offense.
The closest example of this that they have faced was Zay Flowers who had 7 receptions on 11 targets.
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