Bitcoin didn’t just appear.
It was forged over five decades of cryptographic innovation, monetary upheaval, and geopolitical shifts.
This is its origin story.
Grateful to all who paved the way.
Bitcoin is not just a commodity. It is a national security asset, a tool of power projection, and a critical front in the competition with the CCP.
More in my @CoinDesk op-ed:
https://t.co/J4MDbQr3Bw
@BitcoinConner Great work — relevant to this, we laid out a 21-step framework for integrating Bitcoin into the U.S. financial system. Still some boxes to check.
https://t.co/aOo6evn7Pa
Central banks preferring gold over Bitcoin may not be bullish for gold. They already own gold in size. In a world of weaker employment, larger deficits, and growing fiscal strain, official-sector gold can become a source of liquidity. It did in 2008. Today, a lot is beginning to rhyme with 2008. At current prices, annual gold production is ~$650 billion. Annual Bitcoin issuance is ~$12 billion. Gold has both heavier new supply and a possible central-bank overhang. Bitcoin has neither. Some gold bulls are starting to notice Bitcoin’s relative strength. That is how rotations start.
Markets are pricing the endgame faster and faster. If unemployment hits 5%, they may start pricing 10% almost immediately. They skip the commercials and go straight to the final act: Bitcoin.
AI → jobs → credit → policy → Bitcoin.
AI could trigger a subprime-style crisis for white-collar employment and credit. Our 2035 forecast:
• ~41.7M U.S. jobs displaced • Only ~8.5M new jobs created • ~20% of the workforce disrupted
That implies roughly a $1.3T annual income shock to the economy. The policy response could be significant.
We do not use the subprime analogy lightly. We identified the subprime mortgage crisis in 2005 and the contagion risks from Covid in early 2020. We believe AI-driven labor displacement may create similar downstream risks through income, credit, and policy.
Bitcoin may be one of the most underappreciated ways to invest in that outcome.
AI → jobs → credit → policy → Bitcoin.
Link: https://t.co/mA32uWiK3X
Markets send signals.
Gold in Dubai is trading below spot because war has disrupted flights and bullion logistics.
Bitcoin demand in Iran is rising as people look for a financial escape valve from a collapsing currency and sanctions-isolated banking system.
A few hundred miles apart. Completely different signals.
Gold is limited by transportation.
Bitcoin moves by telecommunications.
Atoms vs. internet.
Markets are worrying about war, oil, and private credit.
Soon they’ll go back to worrying about AI replacing your job.
Bitcoin may be starting to notice.
@LukeGromen 10-day vol in oil just jumped 30 to 70, while gold vol fell from ~82 (highest since 1980) to 32. CME margin requirements are following volatility, not macro narratives.